Member Info for Happyhaddock

Markets have many metrics by which they value equities, where those useful for large blue-chips tend to be of questionable benefit when judging speculative micro-cap juniors in the exploration sector.

One informal approach gathering in popularity is the "rocket-o-meter" which involves counting the number of rocket-ship emojis posted on a bulletin board over the previous 24hours and dividing it by the total number of posts over that same period.... any time this value is above zero is to be taken as a time when you must disregard common sense valuations and assume the asylum is well and truly under the control of the lunatics 😜

@MH01 - I've found over the years that trying to caution an over-excited crowd of speculators about a possible downside is just a recipe for abuse.

WSBN is a speculative punt; - worth many times the current mkt-cap IF the drill finds what we hope is there, worth much less if the drill comes up with nothing.

However you have to recognise that in this most risky of sectors price and any sensible estimate of value can be two very different things and that the bigger the speculative mania the bigger the discrepancy.

Those who always do the sensible thing of taking the small profits tend to miss the rare occasions a share delivers massive profits. Those who hold out for massive profits often end up being the ones who regret not taking the small profits.

Everybody has to decide for themselves the level of risk they are willing to take, and so long as folk don't speculate with too much they should be able to live with the consequences of their own actions whatever happens.

I may be wrong but I personally think speculative mania alone can carry this at least a little higher yet.

Friday's late reported "unknown" trade of 90m from Thursday was on top of a further 80m of "unknown" trades reported after hours on Thursday itself.

Could be coincidental but it seems most likely they would all be the same holder, where as GlenFidrich says, a mass dump of 170m shares would be better explanation of what drove the price down from where it was on Thursday afternoon than a mass purchase of 170m shares.

Well much as there is a difference between an exploration target and a defined resource, the quality of ground around Hanc*ck is such that the ore probably is there. However, it does take time and money for a decent BOD to do the work to prove that, where everybody here has different views about the quality of our BOD and the time it takes them to make progress.

We were told earlier this year that a potential JV for Hanc*ck had fallen through because ore prices had made it uneconomic, where since then the trend has been for ore prices to continue their multi-year decline. So whilst this doesn't provide answers, it certainly prompts questions about the future economics of an enlarged Hanc*ck.

Nevertheless, in a market starved of good news our share price does seem to have responded positively this morning, where at a personal level I've been nudged from a whisker below the price I first bought in at, back to fluctuating around the general vicinity of my break even price again.

In light of current discussion I'd like to re-post this written at the start of 2022.

Following today's "bonanza" RNS about EH we've seen increased trading volumes and new names excitably arriving on this bulletin board. However, we've previously seen similar responses to good news have no lasting impact upon our falling share price. So is anything different now?

Historic data showed the old EH silver mine to average over 2,000g/t driven by nuggets and veins at crazy grades peaking above 30,000g/t. Portable XRF data had already hinted that some of the new holes drilled close to the old mine might deliver similar bonanza silver grades. As such the excellent content of today's RNS should not have been a surprise to existing shareholders.

With excitable talk about us now re-challenging the 3p share price reached in October 2020, I was curious to look back to see what was affecting sentiment in UFO back then. The following points are taken from a summary RNS issued mid Oct2020 to "justify" the price spike.

Recent field work at Hamersley Iron Ore projects completed with 95 samples taken and more detailed mapping completed

Ongoing work to secure drill permits to carry out maiden drill programs on the San Celso and Los Campos Silver projects in Mexico

Negotiations with Capstone Mining for a Joint Venture on the Donovan 2 Copper Gold project in Mexico continuing

Finalisation of trenching program on the Elizabeth Hill Silver project

Processing new data set for new permit ELA 47/4422 surrounding Elizabeth Hill Silver project for exploration planning

Over a period of six months in 2020 UFO increased in price forty-fold, much of that in early October. The fervour and belief back then was undeniable, but were the above points really enough to rationally justify such a move? Wider macro economic conditions back then were driving an uptrend in the whole sector, but other juniors did not rise anywhere near as much as UFO. The potential of the Capstone JV was arguably our biggest news back then, yet the start of those discussions had been announced many weeks earlier and did not conclude until after October's price spike.

I'm not sure I've any insight to offer about fluctuating sentiment beyond noting it rarely correlates to fundamentals. We may try to logically value the potential of an exploration company, but we are really speculating on what will or will not trigger changes in the fickle emotions of other speculators. Previously our share price has moved massively on little news, but also failed to move on significant news. So, whilst many seek to justify their price predictions, understanding why prices usually fail to move in line with bulletin board's predictions may be more useful.

Consequently I predict that our share price may make inexplicable moves when we least expect them, and so I will patiently hold my small speculative position for the long term hoping UFO's assets may eventually benefit us shareholders.

"So the Silver project is reporting some extremely high grades near surface.

The Iron Ore project is also expecting a joint venture, within the vicinity of Rio Tinto and others.

Not only that but the company is in tier 1 Australia - best mining jurisdiction in the world."

All the above statements are true, but it is also true that that has been the case for some years now. The factor that many here feel is missing is proactive management intent upon, and capable of, making next year sufficiently different from last year so as to justify their salaries.

UFO's current price reflects pretty minimal market expectations of progress, but if you believe our BOD are going to move things forward over the coming months then UFO looks a bargain.

@olderbutwiser - such cynicism implies you've spent too much time around the junior exploration sector - I prescribe a dose of fresh air and sunshine as a means of restoring the ebullient and unbridled optimism this bulletin board expects.

Well it is that time again when I look back on my prior predictions and offer my half yearly thoughts on the months ahead.

For almost five years this bulletin board's "rampers" have been endlessly claiming that our "flagship" project at Hanc*ck will deliver UFO an "imminent" price re-rate. Throughout that time I faced insults for highlighting how often iron ore price volatility had previously jeopardised the economic viability of small iron ore miners. Furthermore, for many years I had been saying that, in a sector noted for delay, dilution and disappointment, our share price may struggle as Hanc*ck was unlikely to be ready to generate revenue before 2024. That as things typically take much longer than expected, my first date for appraising our progress would be 2025

As we continued waiting on Hanc*ck our share price ended 2024 at 0.08p, a 97% loss from the exuberant high of autumn 2020. Then in early 2025 we were told that a possible JV for Hanc*ck had fallen through because iron ore prices had made it uneconomic.

Whilst I remain to be convinced about the long term benefits of the recently announced JV for our silver, it did generate some brief market excitement. This momentarily pushed our share price up to around 0.13p only to quickly drop back to end June 2025 just above 0.07p. Alien's mkt.-cap. is now so low that if rather than just talk of future aspirations, our directors actually deliver any substantive progress, it could have a big impact upon our share price. However, whilst I have long argued that our wealth lies in the long term potential of our non-ferrous metals rather than our iron ore, I am sceptical of this bulletin board's recent excitable claims that UFO is just about to multi-bag on a massive surge in silver's price.

Of late it feels as if Alien's price moves have just been random noise lacking meaningful signal. As time progresses the chance of "doing a deal" on Hanc*ck that is born of desperation rather than strength slowly increases. Yet, whilst I can't rule out the possibility of some news about Hanc*ck I will repeat the same prediction I've been making since 2023; that it will likely remain safest to keep expecting more anxious waiting rather than forecast meaningful progress at Hanc*ck, and that our nonferrous metals offer the better chance of good news.

At a broader level I have always encouraged patiently maintaining a defensive position to hedge against further global uncertainty, where recent events have really emphasised current geo-political and macro-economic instability. National leaders try to assure us that all is under control whilst trying to kick the can far enough down the road to make it their successor's problem. I don't pretend to know how or when this will all come to an end, but it is difficult to see a positive outcome for any who aren't already prepared to survive increasing volatility and uncertainty.

@Max - I wouldn't say that folk "can't think one step ahead" ... it is more that where we want to be is many steps ahead and that many think our management may not even be walking in the right direction!

Alien still retains great future potential, but the value of that future potential is getting ever more heavily discounted because of a lack of belief that our management will deliver on any of it any time soon.

With apologies to any dragged in to the following;

@napth - need I remind you of prior occasions where you have taken it upon yourself to insult all those on the UFO bulletin board whose views differed from your own at the time?

Some years ago I pointed out your tendency to post more insulting comments about me than I myself was posting about UFO. In insulting many more than just myself, you had dragged your squabbles with those elsewhere on LSE on to the UFO bulletin board. At that time your own fickle emotions had lead you to flip from excitably claiming that you were buying UFO one day, to selling almost the next day, prompting you to start insulting those whose views you had only just been promoting.

Any time you were promoting UFO, you sought to portray all those who shared my caution as a "shorter" or "de-ramper". However, my pragmatic views were always met with more approval than your antagonistic hostility. That is to say that when we first clashed, a post of mine about UFO had just received 19 recommendations. My comment challenging the high proportion of your remarks dedicated to belittling others then received a further 17 recommendations (your overly vitriolic and often barely literate rants rarely got more than 1 or 2 recommendations at the time). Seemingly many there felt that we would all be better-off without you trying to sustain numerous personal vendettas that did nothing for your credibility.

In spite of your need to maintain imagined feuds and my attempts to ignore you, the last time you used the UFO bulletin board to launch a prolonged attack on me the most popular of my cautionary remarks had just received 21 recommendations. Again my rebuttal of your insults attracted a further 16 recommendations. So, whilst popularity is no guarantee of being correct, I've never claimed my opinions will always be right, only that others appear to appreciate my words of caution and that many appear to dislike the hostility and personal attacks you drag from bulletin board to bulletin board.

My opinions have remained consistent over the years, as has my desire to express them articulately and politely. I still maintain that to speculate in junior explorers you need a long term view and must have the patience and emotional fortitude to hold a contrarian view without being swayed to follow other people's euphoric excitement or melodramatic despair. That is to say in a volatile sector where small exploration project's share prices can deviate wildly from their underlying value, you should never risk more than you can afford to lose.

With regard to "negative" posts and "drivel"; you yourself were jubilantly promoting UFO back when it was clearly overvalued at above 2p. Yet when it had fallen to below 0.1p, you visited the UFO bulletin board accusing the company of being a load of "bulls**t" and encouraging others to invest elsewhere, only to indecisively switch to then championing it as a definite multi-bagger.

@norm I'd rephrase your analogy a little...

it's not so much that we have morris minor drivers, it feels more as if UFO's empty car has rolled backwards down a hill with the handbrake off when the folk that should have been behind the wheel were (still are?) sitting in a leafy layby in deck chairs having a little doze in the afternoon sunshine after a nice flask of tea and biscuits.

@panamabob - that's the right way to look at it - "worth the gamble"

from a low mkt cap the possible rewards are immense, but we are dealing with future unknowns in a sector noted for delay, dilution and disappointment so you must always offset the possible upside against the probable downside and never speculate with more than you can afford to lose.

We all speculate hoping to find the rare exception that makes it big, but this is a sector full of precautionary warnings of overly excitable folk who believed they'd invested in something certain to make it big, only to learn the hard way that they hadn't.

I waited a very long time for WSBN to get down to a price I was happy to take a chance on it, and even then it fell a little further. So here's hoping it can make a decent move up and show us all a decent gain.

Whilst it is of minor concern, I don't know if others here have experienced the same with their own brokers but...

For some weeks now LSE seems to have shown UFO's share price fluctuating up and down within a fairly broad and evolving spread (albeit going nowhere overall), yet my own broker has shown our share price static at 0.07p either at the bottom end of or just below LSE's fluctuating price spread. At the same time things like Google who tend to report the last trade (rather than a mid price or spread) have been showing prices way above my own broker and sometimes above the upper limit of LSE's spread...

It is starting to feel as if UFO's share price is now just some arbitrary number that folk guess at in lieu of there being enough volume of trade for different folk to all arrive at the same conclusion.

Whilst I'm not quite sure what you have to credit our BOD with, you have to credit them with something for having the cheek to issue the following: -

"We are pleased with the progress we have made, and we look forward to updating you on our achievements in the coming year".

Given the world's growing obsession with crypto currencies and the desire to stabilise them by linking them to real assets it is easy to speculate about the direction things may be heading here, all the more so based upon the recent activities of one or two other small explorers.

I'll let other decide if the advantages outweigh the disadvantages of such a move, but if this is the direction ECR are heading, this speculative punt may just be getting a lot more speculative and a lot more volatile.

@napth - I've nothing to gain by arguing with you - it would imply your opinion was important enough to me to be worth changing which simply isn't the case.

Well said Dip - difficult to disagree with anything you have said.

Simply put , as I see it, any "potential" UFO still have is now more in spite of rather than because of the way this company has been managed. I spent a long time here encouraging folk to be more cautious and patient in their expectations as there were far to many forecasts being made that no BOD, however excellent, could have met. However we are now at a point that we might reasonably expect a competent BOD to have made more progress than they have, with little sign of any major improvements in the near future.

The two big positives that we still have are that for the time being, if we don't keep giving them away, we still have some good assets that better management might see as desirable. Secondly, that whilst no sensible valuation would put a high value on EH as it is at the moment, everybody knows that when the silver market goes crazy it does it in a manner that out-does the "crazy" of any other market and so sensible valuations go out the window... you can't "invest" based upon the assumption that an equity will achieve an insane valuation disconnected from reality, but if it relates to silver you can't deny such remote possibilities.

Am I expecting a x2-3bag from here? ... No.

Can I rule out a bigger move than that if things get crazy? ... No

Basically UFO remains a risky "bottom drawer" speculative punt.

We all know the history of some on this bulletin board who endlessly claim that imminent news will cause our share price to rocket. They constantly dismiss warnings of over-optimism only for reality to keep falling short of their excitable predictions. As our share price keeps falling ever further from its high of above 3p in 2020, how often have they argued that "this time is different" because whatever was about to happen was "the most important thing" or a "game changer"? So, when Alien's struggles have been typical of the sector, can repeated failures to meet this bulletin board's high hopes be attributed to unrealistic expectation and are they any more realistic now?

In autumn 2023, many here claimed that a share price re-rate was near based upon Hanc*ck being certain to get native title approval before the end of Nov.2023. These people robustly dismissed suggestions that, even if approved without objection, a decision may take some time to be formally ratified and may not move the share price as they hoped for. As it was we only had to wait until mid Dec.2023 to receive an RNS confirming native title approval. On anticipation our share price climbed from about 0.17p to start the week that native title approval was announced at 0.32p. Following that RNS it immediately dropped to 0.22p, soon reaching 0.13p.

With that fall in our share price, this bulletin board's "justification" for predicting an imminent re-rate switched to months of jubilant claims that our mining permits would be issued within days. Again folk dismissed warnings of over-optimism with anticipation lifting our share price back up to 0.22p. We finally received the RNS confirming the issue of our mining permits in Apr. 2024 whereupon our share price quickly fell below 0.18p, dropping as low as 0.11p in the following weeks.

This bulletin board then fixated on our share price re-rating on an imminent JV to finance iron ore production. Hope took our share price back up to 0.24p before being told in 2025 that a deal on Hanc*ck had fallen through because volatile iron ore prices had made it uneconomic. Having fallen below 0.06p our share price briefly bounced back to 0.13p on news of a silver JV deal, but our share price is now around 0.08p.

As I've said many times before, long delays and share dilution are normal both for this risky sector's many failures and rare successes. Most steps forward are sign-posted in advance leading fickle traders to "buy the rumour and sell the news" driving spikes in trading volume and new names to appear on this bulletin board to briefly champion predictions of imminent price gains. For the last five years I've repeated my belief that our wealth lay in the long term potential of our non ferrous metals and that I would first review Alien's performance in 2025. So, I will continue to hold my small speculative position, ignore the incessant hype, and take the risk of waiting to see where we end the year.

Well I've listened to the interview trying to find positives, and in once sense as a PR exercise it was all "positives" however it was basically singing from the same hymn sheet Alien's directors always sing from and one most LTH can now quote from memory...

All the positives were the same positives we've been hearing about for years as were the same "months not years" estimated timescales, whilst all the difficult questions were avoided with the same explanations.

So basically all good if they actually deliver, but as we've heard it all before many times, I guess the number who believe they will actually deliver what they say and when the say must be dwindling!

"So only 1 person interested in this iron ore news?"

I think over time folk are beginning to realise how fleeting the profit margins of small iron or miners can be and how questionable the economics of Hanc*ck may be. It may be that ore prices shoot up and make this more attractive, it may be that over time we enlarge the resource to a scale we can bring down production costs, or it may be that we can tempt a neighbour to take an interest. Conversely global ore production may increase as predicted, some economic crisis may cause a global recession and kill demand, or some other factor may cause ore prices to fall further.

Ore prices are already below $100/t, have been for a while and are in a general long term down trend where the most recent long term forecast I read, along with long term futures pricing, sees them heading below our predicted OPEX

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/bmi-expects-iron-ore-price-to-decline-steadily-over-the-next-decade-2025-05-16

Everything about speculating on junior explorers is about trust and faith ... Much about the future is unknown where I guess the number of folk here that are interested in iron ore news depends upon how many believe that iron-ore prices are going up rather than down and how many believe that we have a competent BOD that can drive forward Hanc*ck to a point of generating profits.