Member Info for Happyhaddock

Undeniably one of the good bits of news we've all been waiting on, though that is not the same as being all the good news we've been waiting on.

Nevertheless it should hopefully pacify some of the worriers that live in a state of perpetual expectation in terms of the next RNS, show that things are plodding along and that we are another step closer to where we all want to be.

Well silver prices have really been showing their volatility over the last few days and doing their best to prove anybody wrong that makes a prediction about where prices are going.

@Tacet, whilst he may have had a similarly wild hairstyle and moustache, the quote is attributable to Mark Twain, not Albert Einstein.

As to what the fools of this bulletin board love, I'll defer to your experience.

“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

So whose turn is it today for the group brain cell?

On the subject of quotes...

"... and some fell on stony ground."

Some more quotes for people to make of, or find relevance in, as they see fit...

"Silence is the hardest response for the fool to understand and the most difficult for them to refute."

"Egotistical minds crave the oxygen of attention, rather than fight them with words suffocate them with silence."

"Fighting trivial battles with inconsequential people is a task for small minds with big egos."

"The only people who look good during a petty squabble are those who resist participating."

"Just because some people make their lives a series of dramas doesn’t mean you have to attend each performance."

I'd like to re-post something of mine from about 18months ago responding to comments of Max111's. I'll not repeat some of the offence and derogatory remarks he made about me at the time for posting this. However whilst slow to change his mind it is good to see him finally agree with some of my comments.

@Max111 - You keep arguing that the difference between our FOB and CFR costs will be minimal because bulk carrier freight rates of iron ore to Qingdao in China are currently $8.85/t. Whilst this price may be accurate it may not be relevant to UFO.

In terms of bulk carrier rates, the link you quote gives capesize prices. Based upon our target production rates it may take us up to two months production to fill a capesize. Given that the scoping study predicted a lower rate of production during our first ramp-up year we may be looking at an even longer period of production to generate enough to fill one capesize. Until we actually have an off take arrangement with a specific customer we won't know how frequently they will want deliveries, which country we will be shipping to, what their port may be able to handle in terms of capacity or how they may charge for interim storage. Consequently it may be wise to at least allow for the possibility of initially using smaller and potentially more expensive vessels for more frequent deliveries, perhaps something like a panamax?

Obviously we are more than a year away from planned production, so projecting future profit margins and income streams based upon current prices may be a little premature given the fluctuating ore prices and energy/shipping costs. Plus we'll have initial cap-ex to pay off before the iron ore is truly generating a surplus profit. Nobody knows what state the markets will be in 18months or more from now, however the above factors I've mentioned may change the bottom line of your calculations even using today's prices.

I'd just like to re-post something that seems as relevant here today, as when first written about another company some time ago.

Faith is something that cannot be reasoned with, it exists in the absence of evidence, not because of its presence.

Some here have faith that we will prosper, whilst many just seem frustrated by how the current lack of certainty is impacting upon our share price... but what separates speculation from investment is the willingness to act before all the facts are known and the outcome is assured. This is why accepting the risk of huge percentage losses on early stage junior exploration companies can deliver huge percentage gains on the rare occasions everything does go in your favour.

Those shareholders here that have total faith in the company probably believe that they have invested, those shareholders without faith in the company probably believe that they have speculated. Those with faith will listen to nothing but their own version of the future, those without faith look to hear of as many possible outcomes as they can so as to rationally assess risks and probabilities.

Some might claim that their blind faith is the better system if it stops them from making reckless overly emotional "knee jerk" sales they later regret. Others accuse blind faith of leading people in to having made overly emotional buys in the first place.

All that matters is that at the end of the day people can live with the consequences of their own actions. The amount of overly emotional vitriol currently to be found on this bulletin board suggests that however they came to make them, many are struggling to live with their own choices. So if you are questioning your faith in the company, ask yourself if you have gambled with more than you can afford to lose or allowed yourself to form unrealistic expectations about risks, valuations and/or timetables? If you haven't then there's no harm in a little speculation.

"It looks like folks are still arguing about nothing on here"

With you on that one Norm - all the chatter about the noise is effectively drowning out the fact that the silence is the signal.

I'm still happy to hold until at least 2025 as that was always my plan and these things always take much longer than expected, but some will always try to read significance in to anything and everything if they've gone even as much as a long weekend without major progress.

...Well whether this is an indication of our directors confidence in the company, or of their desperation to stop the SP falling further isn't clear, but it is good news that they are more closely aligning their financial future with those of us private investors.

I don't doubt that good exploration results can really lift a share price, but we haven't published full tables of numerical drill data people can judge for themselves. We've published aspirational statements and a few pretty pictures essentially saying our BOD are pleased with what they're so far finding, and in which they hint that we might be similar to decent finds other companies have made.

I'm here because WSBN looks a decent speculative punt, but until we get a lot of hard data to show what's on our land it remains a speculative punt dependent upon what that future data reveals.

I'd like to re-post this as much seems as relevant here today as when first written about another company.

Some might cynically say that the focus of a junior exploration company's board of directors is to keep raising enough cash to pay their own salaries. However those directors might say they are there to keep the markets interested in the company so they can raise the funds needed to progress. This isn't easy in a sector noted for endless delays and losses, where most projects fail and where even simple projects can take many years to progress.

Without lying to the markets or concealing truths, companies try to generate enough new enthusiasm to compensate for dilution and impatient market participants who sell up. Good marketing seeks to highlight any positives by hinting at even distant links to currently fashionable ideas or remote chances of near term good news. All this is presented using caveats and words like "potential" "prospective" or "estimate" that provide wriggle room should people's expectations later fail to be met. In other words, when promoting reasons to be optimistic, directors may be legally forbidden from leading us up the garden path, but they can step aside whilst encouraging others to excitably run ahead on their own.

I've seen many junior explorers criticised for misleading markets, along with accusations of their management exploiting small shareholders by running a company in to financial troubles so that it can be taken private "on the cheap" by its creditors. Such critics are often emotional individuals who, in the absence of hard facts and full numerical data, rushed to buy the herd's enthusiasm for a good story. Then without allowing adequate time to prove or disprove that story, make losses selling in to their disappointment. Such people need to recognise that most explorer's PR translates as "...we can't confirm anything just yet, but please help us by getting carried away anyway".

Arguably one of the jobs of a director is the ability to get you to part with your money. Each time you purchase shares they succeed. Consequently every speculator needs the ability to buy, hold or sell shares without being distracted by a company's PR or the emotions of other investors.

You need to understand what is usual for this volatile sector in terms of what is said and when, or even if, it is actually delivered. You must then look for reasons why a specific company may be an exception rather than the norm. This is done by analysing their communications to separate definite and actionable facts from distracting promotional targets and aspirations. Understanding how others may fail at this helps judge share prices in terms of if any potential upside outweighs possible downside. Yet as you cannot eliminate the risk of future unknowns you must be able to live with the consequences of things not going as hoped for, which typically means not speculating with more than you can afford to lose.

Whilst it is nice to see little positive price activity , and the reaction to this here is predictable, I'll repost this word of caution that I wrote almost a year ago when we last experienced something similar with a small move up after a big drop!

I've often said that I don't expect my predictions to be any more accurate than other people's. However, you all know that I've been saying for ages that I'm working on the assumption that we've still got quite a wait for all the paperwork to clear that will enable us to transition from junior explorer to junior iron producer. If I'm correct we may not be able to begin any physical work at Hanc*ck before late 2023, or start generating revenue before 2024. It would be fantastic if we could meet the schedules and price moves currently being proposed on this bulletin board, but whilst possible they don't feel probable.

As I said a few days ago, our price chart suggested we were due a move up in price simply to get back up to the gentle decline we've been following down for two years. So, nice as it is to see a little positive price activity today, nothing about this appears outside the routine volatility of the last two years or indicates to me a significant change in sentiment just yet.

Well that was unexpected !

Curious to see where things end up once all the smoke and mirrors are cleared away as superficially it seems very good news, but I can't make head-nor-tail of why we should be doing this now and why such acquisitions should be seen as a natural fit for ROCK when there must have been other potential buyers out there?

I suppose I'm just naturally suspicious and wary of much that goes on on AIM.

Anybody else noticed how for the last few days our share price has registered 0.38p in pre-market opening before "settling back" on actual opening?

Possible indicator of a good day's trading?

@daffy - just like a fear of finding a spider inside your winter coat is Anoraknaphobia !

@ohmi - no worries, I myself note there was a typo in my own post.

@Ohmi - not to belittle the point you are making, but before somebody else choses to berate you for it, I'd politely point out that you may be mis-uing the word anachronism when you mean abbreviation.

I'm reminded of a student who years ago made a fortune at the bookies claiming he could out predict the MET office's sophisticated computer modelling at weather forecasting;

He simply made the statement that the weather is most likely to be the same as it was the day before . Over the course of a year he was right far more than he was wrong, and he was correct far more often than those who claimed to use clever methods of anlaysing charts and data to make forecasts.

Well this is a sector noted for endless delays and huge losses, and unfortunately I've previously suffered with more than one junior explorer and would be mining company whose problems only started after they got plant built, so I never expect too much too soon...

However we've waited a long time here and I'd much rather be receiving good news about progress than reports of problems so who knows where we may be at Christmas ... but at this mkt cap. I'm happy to continue to keep holding my speculative punt.