Member Info for Happyhaddock

I'd like to share something that remains as relevant here today as when first posted elsewhere.

Some might cynically say that the focus of a junior exploration company's board of directors is to keep raising enough cash to pay their own salaries. However the directors might say they are there to keep the markets interested in the company long enough to keep raising the funds needed to see their projects to completion.

This isn't easy in a sector noted for endless delays, where even simple projects can take years to progress, and where complex projects may take decades. Maintaining market interest in risky, unfashionable projects is all the more difficult now many investors seem to have shorter attention spans than folk that used to identify as traders.

Without lying to the markets or concealing truths, companies must repeatedly try to generate enough new enthusiasm to compensate for impatient market participants who sell up. Consequently good marketing will seek to exploit any remote possibility of on-trend or near term progress, all whilst using caveats and words like "potential" "prospective" or "estimate" that provide wriggle room should people's expectations later fail to be met. In other words the professionals who promote reasons to be optimistic may be legally forbidden from leading us up the garden path, but they will point out to everyone where that path goes in the hope some will excitably run that way.

I've seen various directors of junior explorers come in for abuse for "misleading" shareholders, along with angry accusations of them being "incompetent crooks". Their critics are mostly emotional individuals who seem to have misunderstood the nature of the sector they have speculated in. These people quickly buy into the herd's enthusiasm and soon afterwards sell in to its disappointment. Whilst not overlooking actual facts, such people need to recognise that much of a what a company says effectively means "...we can't confirm anything new just yet, but please help us by getting excited anyway".

You could argue that part of the job description of a board of directors is the ability to get you to part with your money. Every time you purchase shares they have succeeded. Perhaps the most important skill any speculator needs is the ability to buy, hold or sell shares without being distracted by a company's PR.

You need to understand what is usual for the sector in terms of contrasting what is said with what is typically achieved and when it is delivered. You must then identify if there are any reasons to believe a specific company may be an exception rather than the norm. This is done by analysing their communications to separate definite fact from mere targets or aspirations. If you can do so whilst understanding how others may fail at this, then you can profit from buying the good when others judge it to be bad, whilst avoiding what's currently bad when others are telling you it is good.

Just to note that these schedules in the presentation are covered by the caveat that they are "estimated timelines"... they don't come with guarantees.

well this new presentation includes lots of positives, many of which will be familiar to existing shareholders, some new to everyone.

i did note that after the scoping study had suggested cap.ex. for han**** on $30m, for a while there was talk of having reduced this to just $20m, but today that is back up to $30m.

what is good to see is that there's less emphasis on overly ambitious timescales where so much is promised imminently and that the schedules seem that bit more achievable.

Well it is natural for folk to speculate, and its not as if we aren't all desperate for any sort of good news, but the only "fact" we have been given today is that they have elected not to take the extra loan.

Whilst we can assume there is a reason for this they haven't said what it is. As some have proposed, the positive case may be that they now hope to be able to find sufficient funds from other means or start generating revenue before the 2million runs out. The negative case may be that their revised ideas about timescales are such that a medium term loan isn't something they expect to be able to repay in a sensible time frame.

Anyway if we are on the subject of hope, I've always maintained that I speculated here for the long term potential of our non-ferrous metals, and that there was always a chance that news about these may deliver a big move up in share price before our iron ore started generating revenue ... who knows but I'd not be averse to the narrative here switching back to EH and Munni Munni.

It could be something as simple as the old surveys are "out of date" and after about ten years need to be re-done as a matter of administrative box ticking to fit different forms, not because the expectation is that something previously missed will be found.

All we know is that we've been told we've had to raise funds to spend on exploration surrounding native title and heritage issues. Exploration there had been no prior suggestion of needing to do and which will now presumably need factoring in to our schedules and budgets.

@Max111 there's obviously a difference between UFO submitting an application in which they state old surveys conducted before we acquired the license showed no heritage issues, and other people's interpretation of what now counts as heritage issues.

Why else would we be raising money to conduct heritage surveys after submitting our mining applications rather than before?

i'd agree that native title and heritage issues are clearly a problem the bod did not anticipate, as evidenced by the fact every implication that we'd previously had was that all practical work around this matter was long completed and we were just waiting on the paper work to clear.

regardless of whether somebody screwed up and missed the obvious, or whether something that could not have been foreseen has now been pointed out to our management, the recent rns clearly sates we've had to raise more cash to put towards "funding exploration activities particularly around native title negotiations and field heritage surveys at han****"

@Dickie, you say you've suffered loss after loss for four years ... surely if you first bought in around Aug 2019 you must have enjoyed an excellent first year and seen the unjustified spike from below 0.1p to an intraday spike of 3.2p?

Admittedly it's been down hill ever since, but as we've both said people need to identify when excitement and sentiment are getting crazy and either do the sensible thing of just sitting it out until things calm down, or be recklessly brave and try to trade the silly volatility. Not being a trader I didn't take the opportunity of big profits of 3200% back in October 2020, but then had I been a trader I may well have sold out at a decent profit of 25%, 50% or 100% profit on the way up, never getting close to the high of the spike... whilst still be waiting for the price to fall back to the point I'd have sold out at.

As it was I just stopped buying and have left my shares in the bottom drawer for a few years waiting for sentiment to go back to sensible levels... Arguably there's been an opportunity costs of having my money do nothing here for a few years but then it's only a speculative punt I've taken here with money I can afford to lose.

Just re-discovered this that I posted early(ish) in 2021 ... seems remarkably prophetic...

I don't doubt that mining and metals exploration as a sector, and UFO as a junior, have a great outlook over the long term. However I do wonder if over excitable investor sentiment is going to be the biggest short term risk to the juniors, and the extent to which sentiment will have "burnt out" before we get started.

Almost everywhere you look in the junior exploration sector there are self pro-claimed experts exalting the positives and creating a growing sense of expectation and impatience among private investors. Almost every little twitch up in a share price is hailed as the start of something huge but is followed by nothing more than a shuffle further back down. In this regard UFO has been no different to a dozen or so other juniors I'm invested in.

Those that understand how unreliable industry forecasts are and the timescales typically involved in advancing a project will possibly do just fine from patiently waiting. However, I can't help but feel that all the current enthusiasm is going to draw emotional folk in to buying and soon bailing out at a loss if it isn't quickly matched by reality. This in turn generates a reluctance to re-enter later on, thereby holding back share prices.

Things may come good in their own time but it will be a volatile ride whilst people's expectations and attention spans are not in line with the pace at which the industry moves.

I'd like to repeat some thoughts that I've posted here a few times as the sentiment remains as valid today as when first shared almost three years ago.

Like many, I've held a speculative position here for quite a while and I remain a patient and cautiously hopeful share holder. However, with many having excitedly bought at much higher prices, only to witness big falls, many of the posts on this board have become insecure bickering and personal insults.

So, whilst there is no reason that anyone should care about my views, might I remind people of the obvious!

1) AIM exists as a fund raising mechanism for smaller companies to try and grow. Routine share dilution is therefore par for the course for mineral explorers trying to advance their inherently volatile projects. If you can't handle a sector characterised by a high level of risk and massive uncertainties or don't trust a company's management then you shouldn't speculate in such shares.

2) Countless statistics show that almost all active investors underperform passive market trackers whilst about three quarters actually lose money trading stocks. So remember, the ability of an "investment" to meet your expectations doesn't depend on what other, potentially ill informed, people hope will happen in the future, it depends upon how realistic your own expectations were when you decided to speculate in such a volatile sector.

3) Bulletin boards typically represent the views of a most passionate and vocal minority, not the silent majority who actually move markets. Blindly acting on the advice of these strangers on the inter-net without taking responsibility for your own actions and researching all possible outcomes is effectively committing to remain poor.

4) Consequently it may be delusional to assume that overzealous arguing directly influences enough wealthy investors to drive a share price either up or down. Not that this stops that vocal minority from endlessly complaining and accusing others of "ramping" or "de-ramping" when things aren't going as they hoped for.

5) Nobody benefits from acting on emotion. Simply learn from your mistakes if you have gambled with more than you can afford to lose or allowed yourself to form unrealistic expectations about risks, valuations and/or timetables.

It is possible to respectfully debate conflicting opinions about future unknowns by presenting opposing facts to support an alternate theory, where offensive and inarticulate comments can de-value even valid points. Sadly, many posts are simply emotional rants which aren't actually making any point about investing, the economy or the company in question. We may all wish to vent frustration from time to time but no one should insult, patronise or try to silence people with differing opinions simply to bolster their own delicate egos.

So does anybody further their own cause or credibility if they present them self as a petulant bully squabbling in the school yard?

@ EWT98 - as you say you do have to look hard to find a positive spin today but consider this...

It is statistically common place and normal for almost all junior explorers to experience endless delays, large overspends and volatile jumps up and crashes down in share price;

This has been a routine part of the growth of almost all large successful mining companies, but sadly it has also been a common cause of the failure of many long forgotten junior explorers.

Some like to gamble on the turn of a card or the roll the dice... junior explorers are no less of a casino where the game is not over until they turn the lights out!

Did anybody else note that the very fist point on the list of things the placing money was to be spent on was...

salaries ...

Is that indicative of our BOD's priorities?

Well, having been here a good few years and having set 2025 as my first date for reviewing our progress I could arguably claim to be "happy" to have seen my speculative punt almost double in value from my initial purchase price of just over 0.1p, whilst it is still progressing more or less in line with my anticipated timeline... however the route its taken to get here is far from good:

The price moves have been wild and erratic even by the standards of junior explorers whilst communication from our merry-go-round of ever changing BOD has only exaggerated this. Still If I can't listen to my own advice then there's little hope for me as I've long warned about this sector being one noted for endless delays and overspends, one where you shouldn't risk more than you can afford to lose and where you should always expect things to move in ways, and at times you don't expect.

So as I've said before, in this sector I take a small speculative punts, mentally write them off as an immediate 100% loss and then give them plenty of time just to see what happens. Consequently 2025 still remains my first date for evaluating or progress and our "potential" remains as great as ever so anything (good or bad) is possible in the future.

Well whatever your views, there's no denying that recent news has stirred up much debate here and seen a large increase in daily volume, so clearly many view the announcement about not commencing work until 2024 as some sort of major change in their expectations.

I'd have thought by now we might have shaken out all the nervous or impatient worriers with unrealistic expectations but seemingly I am wrong as our share price continues to fall.

I've said before that if this does well I expect most here to make more money than me, or if it does badly lose more money than me; Some on account of just being much richer than me and having more small change to gamble with, others through being much braver (reckless?) and committing a greater percentage of their wealth on a speculative punt.

Either way my own views have not changed, nor has the fact I built the majority of my position here back when the mkt cap. was around £2m; I've only risked money I can afford to lose on what I viewed, and still view, as a high risk play with the potential for great long term rewards, so I'm going to continue to sit and hold and see where we end up come 2025 which has always been my first date for reviewing our progress... If I'm correct then great, if I'm wrong well those are the risks of gambling on early stage junior exploration companies.

Well not the news folks here would want, but how much of a surprise today's announcement is will depend upon your own expectations...

Personally, whilst taking almost three years of abuse for saying it, I've always stated that I didn't expect to see physical preparations at Hanc*ck start before late 2023 or see revenue before 2024, whilst 2025 has always been, and remains, my first date for reviewing UFO's progress.

Well the two key questions remain;

1) When will all the paper work clear in order for us to start physical preparations?

2)At the point we sign on the dotted line and commit to a financial deal, how will ore prices compare to our all in total sustaining costs?

So, whilst there's nothing in this RNS to address the above or make an immediate difference it's still positive news which should temporarily pacify the impatient who live from RNS to RNS.

Definitely shares I'm happy to leave in the bottom drawer a little longer as Rome wasn't built in a day.

I'm seeing a privacy security message warning not to access Alien metals, but within an advanced tab there is option to access the site at your own risk.

It might not be so much a case of the site being down, but as cj says some updated setting that's triggered a security block.

i seem to recall that not too long ago, back when the price was "down" to about 0.6p there was talk of "capitulation".

back then i'd disputed the fact that investors had "capitulated" and said that would be identifiable not by the number of people ******** about one another, about the share price or about the management , but at the point people stop coming on this bulletin board to say anything at all.

for all the fact this bulletin board is now far more angry, it is far from silent ... but for contrarian investors who believe in taking the risk of buying things when they are cheap and out of favour rather than when everybody is fighting to acquire them, might this anger and frustration be a sign we becoming a whole lot more attractive again as a speculative punt?

... i suppose that all depends on if you consider our current disappointments as insurmountable problems, or just day to day realities in this sector and a sign that too many people get carried away by unrealistic expectations.

Might one conclude that the "gammar police" ? are a "click" who object to the correct use of the English language?

A selection of great quotes for folks to make of what they will...

"Discussion and debate are an exchange of knowledge, whilst argument and ridicule are an exchange of ignorance"

"To argue with fools merely adds to the number of fools present."

"Silence is the hardest response for the fool to understand."