Member Info for Happyhaddock

Just as it is fun to see how Max likes to have the last word and will endlessly defend his potion I'll point out that; of the the nine categories in the link to mining permits just provided, four have no defined timeline implying they are variable or open ended, the five that do list specific times only set targets for the majority of cases not absolute limits for every case, where the longest target mentioned is " 95days for high risk applications".

It was Spring 2020 we first applied for our mining permits, so which of the categories do folk here think are having the dominant effect on our wait... the ones with a stated target, or those that are listed as variable without any specified target?

Max, must you insist on calling any statement you dislike or which doesn't support your own promotional agenda a lie?

For your benefit here is the article from 2020 quoting the Australian prime minister's comments referencing 21 month permitting times. The relevant quote is in the first three paragraphs, whilst the rest of the article is quite interesting even if no longer bang up to date.

https://www.mining.com/australia-approves-one-touch-approvals-for-projects/

@max -

To repeat what I said " whilst we haven't a clue at this stage what it might cost us to mine our silver at EH some of the big primary silver miners with high grade ore have costs approaching $10/oz."

I then backed that up with a recent statistic from the silver institute when you accused me of making up numbers.

With regard to your comment that "HH's 21-month licence application process is nonsense" I was merely quoting the Australian prime Minister who, in 2020 simplified legislation hoping to reduce delays in permitting new mines, stating that the changes "should allow companies to start construction about 21 months after they first apply for approval".

At no point have I stated that I know how long the process currently takes, only that a target of 21months was set in 2020 and that in mid 2022 further measures were put in place by western Australian Authorities to to tackle a "substantial backlog following a significant increase in applications".

If you don't want to factor such comments from the authorities UFO are dealing with in to your own expectations as you feel they have no value that is your prerogative.

@max11 - I mentioned EH in response to your own comments about the cost of mining silver.

You state I am making making up numbers; the following is a direct quote from the silver institute's own report from late 2022, some of the most recent industry wide data available.

"Average AISC for primary silver mines in H1.22 fell by 10% y/y to $9.72/oz"

sure if you look to select data to support a specific conclusion, rather than draw the conclusion that best fits most of the evidence, you may find the odd producer whose costs may have exceeded $30/oz. However, as it was about a decade ago the last time the silver price sustained a price above $30/0z, such numbers can hardly be said to represent mines with a profitable future ahead of them.

"Even at $100/t, the margins are higher than selling silver at $50/oz!"

I'd be curious to know what numbers/data you are basing that claim on?

We've disagreed before about what our total AISC or C3 costs for Han**** might be and could only agree on the fact we haven't yet been given any definite data. However even if we ignore all the "additional" costs that might take us over $70/t to perhaps more than $90/t and just use the estimate of $60/t FOB, an ore price of $100/t would give approx. 66% ROI.

In contrast whilst we haven't a clue at this stage what it might cost us to mine our silver at EH some of the big primary silver miners with high grade ore have costs approaching $10/oz and the industry average (whilst much harder to define because of the way smaller and secondary producers report data) is still estimated to be not much above $20/oz. So at $50/oz the majority of silver miners would be making in excess of 100% ROI

To make less profit on silver at $50/oz you'd need to be spending more than $30/oz mining that silver which most in the silver industry probably aren't.

@ Max 111 the resource at Hanc*ck was confirmed in Autumn 2021 not 2012, though it could be argued that Alien are referencing not when the resource was confirmed at Hanc*ck, but that it meets the latest JORC standards which came into effect in 2013 but are referred to by some as 2012 standards as that was presumably when they were drafted and agreed upon.

@normbeef, - I assume the mention of a "2012 JORC confirmed resource" is simply another example of Alien's poor proof reading and their inability to spot mistakes in their own documentation.

I truly hope they pay more attention to the numbers in any contract we make with AA.

Much to the chagrin and anguish of this bulletin board's cheerleaders, I've been saying since the end of 2020 that I though it would take a bare minimum of two years to start producing iron ore. For much of that time I've been saying that we may have to wait until late in to 2023 for physical work to start and that it may be 2024 before we see any meaningful profit from Hanc*ck.

I've also been highlighting how unreliable industry forecasts are and that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than anyone else's. As such I'm not sure how I feel about Alien amending it's own forecasts such that they now more closely align with my own.

I suspect I should be pleased? However, given the potential this industry always has to throw up unexpected problems such that almost all mine development projects come in behind schedule and over budget, I'm half thinking it might be prudent to revise my own expectations beyond the schedule just put out by Alien.

After all the Australian government's plans in 2020 were to reduce permitting delays such that their administrative changes "should allow companies to start construction about 21 months after they first apply for approval". They were still experiencing a "substantial backlog following a significant increase in applications" in summer 2022. We applied for approval in Spring 2022 so even if we assume that target of 21months is met, might that push license approval in to early 2024?

At the end of the day it is all just educated guess work and doesn't change my investment thesis of holding and not judging UFO's performance until 2025, but it's always wise to prepare for the worst whilst hoping for the best...

I know I am more cautious and patient than most here but...

less than six months just noise and volatility to ignore.
6mth to a year, short term.
up to 5years - medium term and the bare minimum I give a junior explorer to show progress.
5+years nudging towards long term but in this industry I think long term needs to be defined in decades.

@Damo - would be nice to have that many shares but alas far from it. Being self employed in the creative arts is more of a lifestyle choice than a wealth generating exercise - almost to the point you need to have previously acquired some independent wealth so as to afford to be poor.

As I've said before if (when?) UFO takes off many here will probably do much better than me out of it in absolute terms. Some as a consequence of just being much richer than me to start with and having more beer money to throw at speculative punts, others through being much bolder (reckless?) and risking far more of their wealth on a speculative punt. That said I've a sufficiently low average that in terms of percentage gains I may be in a minority here that are showing good profits even at today's prices.

As I've said before, I joined this bulletin board after UFO's crazy price spike in 2020 hoping that I might learn a little about what prompted such irrational behaviour. Open web-based groups inevitably attract a few with very extreme views, from the seemingly paranoid believing that even the most inconsequential comments are deliberate lies intended to further some nefarious goal, to the over-excitable who seem to believe even their own polemic propaganda. Milder forms of the above commonly show themselves in the insecurities prevalent among those seeking communal affirmation of their current investment choices over impartial exploration of all possible outcomes.

Whilst I have seen no evidence to suggest that the dominant opinions voiced on LSE are representative of the beliefs or actions of the silent majority who move share prices, I still believe that Alien's long term potential outweighs its risks. However, as what I believe is irrelevant to the markets, as best as I am able, I try to calmly acknowledge all future uncertainties including possible outcomes and timescales that contradict my own hopes for UFO. I'll say no more about some people's overly emotional behaviour other than that the junior exploration sector seems a curious place to speculate for impatient people fearful of uncertainty and downside risk.

With respect to our share price, I'd previously expressed the hope that positive expectation might have allowed us to recapture some of 2020's price spike in the later part of 2021, but that if news flow didn't satisfy high expectations then our share price would be falling by that Christmas. Since then I've been predicting a prolonged period of price stagnation, something which in turn might set up another crazy move with the potential to again over-value us before the end of 2024.

Whilst I am a little disappointed, I am neither surprised nor worried that we are still continuing to shed 2020's gains as the administrative cogs do turn slowly. We seem trapped in a catch 22 situation where our price is currently struggling because people are holding off buying until the price moves dramatically upwards. However, it is not without precedent for folk to only get excited and rush to invest after something has become over-valued rather than when it is under-valued.

The position I built before 2020's price spike remains profitable for me, and I remain hopeful about UFO's future. However, for the time being I'll continue to keep my shares in the bottom drawer neither selling nor adding to my position. I've stated several times before that I feel we may have to wait until Spring2023 for first signs of a gradual change in sentiment and that 2025 has always been my first date for judging UFO's success. I've also stated that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than other people's which is why I'm happy to just hold and don't try to trade the volatility or time the market.

@normbeef - don't forget that the $65/t costs you are using is an estimate of our future FOB, we've not been given any estimate of future C3 or AISC costs yet.

We can only guess at such things by making comparisons to other similar producers. Fenix is the company most here compare us to and I don't know how similar our own costs will be to theirs in terms of overseas shipping, finance costs/royalties, director salaries, legal and administrative and all the other extra costs that such business incur. However for reference Fenix quote total costs about 70% above their FOB costs, that is to say their last financial report quoted FOB costs of US$62/t with additional costs of US$43/t taking their total costs to US$105/t.

We were also told to expect our first 12months of production to be a ramp up year in which we may only produce about half of final target volumes.

If you cautiously factor the above in to your calculation it's not difficult to end up with first year profits below £10m and a share price well below 1p on first going in to production. Plus facts don't directly move share prices, they are merely one of many things affecting investor sentiment, which is what ultimately moves prices, where at this stage it is all just speculation about future unknowns as a lot may change between now and first ore coming out of the ground

Remain patient, hope for the best but always prepare for the worst.

Think I've figured out my confusion over our debt in that the figure I remembered being previously quoted was roughly 25million but Aus dollar not £, that's roughly £13m

That makes it a little clearer now. Seemed odd we could reduce debts by roughly as much as our revenue as cash would have to have been spent to meet expenses.

Sorry for any confusion.

@normbeef - all sounds plausible...

I myself mentioned only a few weeks ago our long term price chart suggest we were due a little bounce up above 0.5p simply to get back to the downward trend we've been following for more than two years; that I wouldn't consider a positive move more than market volatility or consider things as change in sentiment unless the price could sustain a price above 0.6p.

It's had a good try and a small series of higher highs and high lows looked more promising than some of our past little spikes, so it may yet turn out to be the start of something. However, like you I'm working on the assumption our price is going to spend the next few months as it has spent the last couple of years.

@saint30 - don't mistake the amount of ore mined for the amount of ore processed - they state the tonnage of ore mined underground and moved to the stockpile.

Have I mis-remembered this or not, I'm sure somebody here will know?

I thought our debts were around £25m but they are today listed as only about £12.6m ... somewhere in this bad news have we paid off about £12m in debt or were we never that indebted to start with?

@wents - I hope you/we all get the clearances we want before your March deadline, but as I've said before pretty much all mine development projects run behind schedule and over budget.

Nobody knows how long the admin will take and just how bad delays are, but as I've mentioned recently, when the Aus. govt. simplified permitting procedures in 2020 it was hoping to bring down long delays, stating the changes "should allow companies to start construction about 21 months after they first apply for approval". Given that it was only last summer that further measures were announced to deal with a "substantial backlog following a significant increase in applications" it doesn't sound as if the authorities have been achieving what they hoped for.

We applied for our permits to mine about 8 or 9 months ago... I can only guess at when we may get clearance but I've stated here on a few occasions that I feel it may be late in 2023 before we begin physical preparations and perhaps 2024 before we are generating meaningful profits.

As always I hope to be proved wrong and to have been overly cautious, but it does no harm to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Statistics tell us about the past performance of sample groups but guarantee nothing about the future of individual cases. Nevertheless, in the face of some here making quite bold short term projections, the following may be worth posting again.

I've previously quoted various studies each showing that the vast majority of mine development projects run behind schedule and over budget. In 2020 the Australian Prime Minister simplified legislation hoping to reduce delays in permitting new mines, stating that the changes "should allow companies to start construction about 21 months after they first apply for approval". In mid 2022 Western Australian Authorities announced further measures to tackle a "substantial backlog following a significant increase in applications".

With mining not yet permitted or financed, what we infer about expected timescales from the actions of Alien's directors is subjective. However, their recently announced share incentive gave themselves until December 2025 to get our first million tons of iron ore out of the ground and sold.

Irrespective, we won't have to wait long to see if this bulletin board's latest predictions come true.

It's that time of year when I reflect on the accuracy of my prior half yearly expectations and offer my thoughts about future.

Since joining this bulletin board I've tried to politely point out that some people's impatient expectations have not been aligned with the rate at which junior explorers typically progresses. That if you speculate in a volatile sector characterised by disappointments, delays and losses even the best opportunities do not guarantee risk-free immediate gains.

Although Alien's share price has fallen considerably from its insane spike of more than 3p in autumn 2020, I still believe that our long term potential outweighs the risks. It has been quite some time since I added to my holding of UFO shares but I still retain the position I bought prior to that price spike. Contrary to the views of many, last summer I again suggested that my expectation heading towards the end of 2022 was that our share price would continue to stagnate as it had been doing for some time; That, rightly or wrongly, my working assumption was (and still remains) for a gradual change in sentiment roughly around April 2023, with 2025 my first date for appraising UFO's success.

Some here were defiantly arguing that we'd be mining iron ore in 2021, and have been repeatedly deferring such predictions ever since. Regardless of being a slow and as yet incomplete process, the impression is still that UFO are steadily advancing the paperwork needed to put Hanc*ck in to production. Six months ago our share price was around 0.7p, yet even allowing for a little excitement in December, it ends 2022 below 0.6p. I'd reiterate that in the current economic climate I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than other people's. So, whilst Alien's future does look positive, to me it seems bold to hope that we will be generating big profits from mining iron ore within the first half of 2023 as some here suggested. Nevertheless, it doesn't feel unrealistic to hope to make decent administrative progress over the next six months so as to be well placed to transition to physical preparations in the later part of 2023.

From a broader perspective I have been suggesting for some while that it may be beneficial to patiently maintain a defensive position to hedge against the growing risks of major global financial volatility. Many commentators are predicting global recession and it seems likely eastern economies will continue to distance themselves from the US dollar which won't benefit conventional western investments. The biggest unknown is the extent to which the interventions of central bank's and politician's will make the unstable situation worse. Beyond saying that things could get "ugly" I don't pretend to know how or when this will all play out I'd simply remind folks that fortunes are made by people prepared for times when most around them are losing their shirts.

Happy new year and good luck to all patient LTH!

If we take all the various figures quoted here today at face vale they do look great ... if wading through all the documentation they come from leads you to question the quality of UFO's proof reading then you may want to verify some of that data... we all know in this fast paced world how many mistakes slip through the net even with official records... you've only to read something (anything?) put out by a supposedly professional organisation like the BBC to see how lax standards now are in the rush to keep up with modern deadlines. Politicians are even worse with the glaring errors in some of their official statements. Perhaps the saddest thing is that in a transient world of fleeting soundbites and tweets almost nobody takes the time to notice and so they are only glaring errors to those who don't impatiently race through more than they have time for.

Heck I never set out to become a miserable old codger but I do seem to to be rocking it today!

Anyway who am I to say which of UFO's numbers are correct, but you do raise an eyebrow when different figures from the company's official documentation contradict one another.