Member Info for Happyhaddock

correction April 2023 not 2022

"The thing about "buy on rumour, sell on news" is that it works, until suddenly it doesn't."

We all know AIM listed explorers are hugely volatile and difficult to predict which is what makes trading risky. We also know that bulletin boards are full of folks with opinions confidently claiming that it will only be "X", "Y" or "Z" that will cause the share price to massively re-rate ,with other confidently arguing the opposite. Plenty of people will trade UFO's erratic volatility and perhaps a few will make a few quid out of doing so. Plenty more, like myself, are holding as a long term investment.

Most predictions end up being wrong as changes in sentiment are a complex thing to pre-determine. On the odd occasion that someone gets bragging rights to say they called things "right" it is usually as a consequence of endlessly calling the same thing time and time again and having been constantly wrong for a long time.

I've stated here that I personally think we may have to wait until April 2022 before we see a gradual change in sentiment, I've also stated that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than anybody else's, which is why I don't trade upon them.

Today's news is another indication that behind the scenes were are doing the right things. Will it have made a material difference to our share price next week or month I don't know? Collectively though lots of positive news like this issued over the long term does eventually affect sentiment and move a share price and that is why I remain invested.

great to hear that things are being pushed forward, but as others have implied the devil will be in the detail

what terms/interest rates might the loan be on?

what terms/prices might the ore be purchased at?

If only £15m of the nominal £30m capex needed is on offer we still have the rest to raise.

nevertheless this still has to be seen as another positive step along the road to production.

still a shareholder here, been in long enough to see prices both rise well above my average and also drop well below.

I didn't sell out when I could have doubled my money and I'm not selling out now at a small loss, junior explorers and miners are always risky and always take time to make real progress where SGZ exemplifies that.... so this remains another share holding for me to leave in the bottom drawer and look back in on at some point in the future.

that interview certainly gave the impression that it wasn't our board looking to boot BBG sideways and find a replacement, more that Rod approached them and they thought it beneficial to avail themselves of his services.

If both Bill and Rod can play to their strengths with no ill feelings between them that should be great for UFO.

@ Metalhead

they have the option, and I don't see why they'd not take it, but as the RNS states it is conditional.

Until the administrative hoops are jumped through I'm not counting my chickens... this is AIM and a junior explorer and will undoubtedly involve lawyers... you learn nothing is certain until the signatures are on the paperwork ... a year ago folk here were assuming the last deal for 90% was a sure thing.

Whilst we may never be told, I would be curious to know how much this "change of terms" was initiated by Winfield, how much by Bill Brodie Good, and how much by our new man Rod taking a look over their shoulders and deciding that something had to give to get the deal out of limbo.

It's not signed yet, but it now looks far more likely than it did before today's announcement

with you on that metalhead

A few times recently I'd spoken about how we were still waiting on news about the 90% deal... we finally have a bit more clarity. More dilutive in issuing extra shares/warrants than the earlier agreement but it recognises the current situation with our share price and may allow the deal to cross the finishing line.

The statement about H2 production also clarifies the ambiguity about what was meant about "shovel ready" although it may still take a little time for being in production to advance to producing meaningful revenue, but that is only normal in a first ramp up year.

@5x5 I'd literally just written the following as you posted your comment...

Good Lord we're not reaching a point where we are having to rely on cautious folks like me to try and promote UFO's many positives are we....

As I've said many times before expressing any confidence in short term predictions about volatile AIM stocks is foolish, and it is even more foolish to make decision based upon short term narratives or predictions. I wouldn't claim to know what our share price may do over the next weeks or months, but UFO's fundamentals are now considerably better than they were back in Oct2020, and the price is significantly lower... strange how folk only get excited and want to invest when things are over-priced and not when they are underpriced.

well I'm sure there are many long term holders looking with delight and relief at our recent price action, but what I find curious is how recent trade volumes compare to previous "busy" periods.

Whilst we've certainly had a lot of dead days over the last year when only a few thousand shares have traded, and in comparison to that a couple of million shares is a lot. However, some our "big" moves in share price over the last few years have taken place on days when trade volume was a good few tens of millions shares... In comparison to that today is still a quiet day...

Makes you wonder about what might happen if the market really starts to take an interest again?

Forgive me shoe-horning in an only loosely relevant quote, but I just heard it and it amused me...

"you can't make a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant"

or in other words some things can't be rushed and your situation can only be made worse by trying to hurry them... we all sense where UFO is heading, the only important question is if people have the patience and emotional fortitude to wait for it to get there. The more you research and understand the natural timescales and rhythms of this sector the more you learn to ignore short term fluctuations in prices... 50+% drops or having a bad year or two are just noise to some investors yet are everything to others.

UFO seemingly offers the real potential of some huge percentage gains, and for that I'm willing to wait a lot longer than I would for a modest 5% or 10% profit.

It would be unusual to specifically state in a separate announcement that samples from drill cores had been shipped to the labs, it's kind of what is expected and the very reason for drilling them. WSBN announced the start of drilling about a month ago and you'd normally only need a few days to catalogue and prepare the cores before the first samples would be ready for dispatch. Given both the excitement and the current delays in the lab system with many things taking a few months longer than used to be normal, I wouldn't imagine WSBN would hold back all the samples to be dispatched as one single shipment at the end of a drill campaign... though I don't actually know this to be the case as fact.

Given the prevalence and ease of use of handheld XRF machines its now also common practice to give the cores a preliminary scan before dispatching samples to the labs. In some cases stood next to the drill rig scanning literally within moments of them having come out of the ground. Some explorers include this XRF data in early RNS's along with a big proviso that it can only be considered as a rough guide and isn't as accurate and reliable as data derived from full lab analysis. Other explorers prefer to say nothing about any XRF data they may have should it end up being misleading.

Either way I'd assume that any samples from cores drilled about a month ago would already be queued up at the labs, and that even if they've not said so, WSBN would have a rough idea of what sort of numbers they'd expect the labs to be producing once all the test are complete.

Under "normal" turn around times we could well have already had some lab. results back, but my instinct is to to feel it may be well into September at the earliest before we get any lab. data. That the things we are only just starting to drill now could still be with the labs as folk start making plans for Christmas, which if that turns out to be the case seems enough time for interest to temporarily wander.

I'm not a natural trader but if things get too frothy too soon I might end up skimming a little off the top as in general terms sentiment isn't really with this sector at the moment.

WSBN has always had huge potential, but no certainty. As snippets of news come out the probability of actually achieving at least some of that potential increases but there's still no certainty.

Given the long delays processing assays, the question I find myself asking is will the market keep up this enthusiasm long enough to actually get some hard data back from the labs or will folks temporarily lose interest if they have to wait a while?

I think folk place too much emphasis on markets, over the short term, sensibly valuing a company based upon its fundamentals.

Fundamentals are great over the long term, and govern how many of the potential investors looking at company decide to commit cash to become actual investors, yet it is wider market sentiment that governs how many are actually looking in the first place. At the moment wider sentiment makes us the equivalent of a timid child politely raising our hand in a dark and empty room... nobody is going to notice.

That will change over time but we may have little control over when. The impatient and frustrated may want to move on elsewhere and risk missing out if this does take off soon, otherwise having the ability and the patience to buy things when they are out of favour and then wait is a proven method of making profits.

My positions not changed in two years, I'm just patiently holding the shares I've got awaiting a sustained change in wider market sentiment.... If I were looking to sell or make short term trades I could have got out two years ago with a x30bagger but in spite of this sectors volatility this was always a long term hold for me.

In the unlikely event that prices fall a lot more I've a little cash held back I could use to add to my position with, but largely I see my junior explorers as a waiting game, where as I've said several times over the last few years, 2025 is my first date for evaluating UFO's success where upon I expect to still see enough growth potential to decide to just keep holding.

I think so much of people' expectations are governed by recency bias. Things went crazy in 2020 across the sector and everybody started to expect that even the smallest of junior explorers were going to the moon just on anticipation, something which became a self fulfilling prophecy but only for a brief moment. Since then more or less everything has come down again and many folks are now assuming that nothing can move share prices up, which again has become a temporarily self fulfilling prophecy.

It's just the nature of the crazy volatility in this sector... look back over time and things come in and out of fashion. When sentiment for the sector changes people will look at our fundamentals and hopefully start buying again, perhaps slowly at first but then likely in another crazy wave of excitement. I think the mistake is to believe that our improving fundamentals and the things the company can directly control are the only, or even the biggest, factors affecting our share price.

well we may still be lying in the gutter, but at least we are now looking up at the stars rather than face down in the slime!

Having major partners is always somewhat of a double edged sword in that it is rare for two parties goals to align perfectly.

We have the benefit of wealthy partners advancing our major project and paying us for the privilege in exchange for a share of ownership. The downside is that they have no interest in advancing our share price if their ultimate goal may be to eventually buy us out completely.

We benefit from drill data that tightly defines and incrementally advances known reserves by small measured amounts, our partners merely want an idea if the project is going to big enough to warrant all the drilling to tightly define a very large reserve, and as such, at this point they will be inclined to be looking for different things in different places. That said there will still be a requirement to release market sensitive information when it becomes available, be that drill data or contractual agreements to commit to the next phase(s) of this joint venture.

Myself, I am resigned to the fact that this may be a long, slow "backburner" type of shareholding but one of relative safety compared to the norms of the exploration sector.

"Virtually every share is undervalued - according to those invested"

never was a truer word said; you can look across the mining sector and find active producers priced with P/E ratios close to 30 and those close to 3, but all are promoted as undervalued.

We all have to decide for ourselves what constitutes a sensible price at which to make an investment, the extent to which sentiment is actively against a particular company in this sector or the extent to which sentiment is merely below the peaks of 2020's mania for the sector...

So although a meaningless tautology we can say for certain that a company's mkt cap on any given day will be lower than all the days it was valued higher, and higher than all the days it was valued lower.