Member Info for Happyhaddock

one smart thing Fenix did early on was to hedge to lock in high iron ore prices so that even when open market prices were heading towards $100/t they were still getting paid $180/t.

That surely gave them a huge cash boost with massive profits early on but the fact that situation won't last for ever, and may well have now come to an end, presumably weighs on how the market values Fenix's future as their past turnover won't be representative of future turnover.

from the RNS last month

"Bill Brodie Good, Chief Executive Officer & Technical Director of Alien Metals, commented: "The development aspects of the Hanc*ck Iron Ore Project to be shovel ready for early 2023 are progressing very well. We are on track to have all the permitting in place, and will soon be in a position to commence mining next year."

Just ambiguous enough to not make it clear if commencing mining is a separate and later stage to that of being shovel ready for early 2023, or if they are one and the same thing with mining to start early 2023.

My recollection was that Bill first said they were aiming to be "shovel ready" for the end of Q1 2023 as that was the earliest that was possible, but that it may be wise to allow a little longer. More recently he's dropped the cautionary clause which could be taken to imply he's now more confident that the end of Q1 2023 is achievable.

Either way I think the more pertinent point is how we interpret "shovel ready" ... personally, and to stay on the cautious side, I'm not taking it to mean that we'll be extracting commercially relevant amounts of ore from which we will instantly be deriving income. Merely that all the paperwork and permits should be complete such that folks in hard hats and high-visibility vests can finally begin. I don't know how soon we may expect to start deriving any meaningful income from our iron ore, and it would be great if it were sooner, but it wouldn't surprise me if we still had more than twelve months to wait.

superficially the geology looks great, largely because it is great ... as you say the big question is the finances can we generate enough revenue to service our now substantial debts as well as operational costs and still leave some cash as profit?

the junior end of this sector has always been high risk high reward, PUR takes that risk/reward ratio to a new level.

Whether it is relevant I don't know ... but many say 2million oz of gold is about the bare minimum needed to get the "big players" interested in buying out a project.

Is it wild speculation to note the fact we've now been updated to 2.02 million ounces and guess about how this could be the first step of a marketing campaign?

Frankly I'd rather see us work through our problems and start getting the gold out the ground to repay our debts.

palladium fluctuates up and down by 1-3% most days, there have been several days this year when it's moved by 5-10% and the biggest moves have been close to 15% in a day...

it is just a volatile commodity so I wouldn't read too much into a comparatively modest move.

BBG had previously hinted that our Greenland license may be considered for disposal.

Now our new guy Rod is to take the reins, given his own history with minerals projects in Greenland, do you think we may see Greenland become a more prominent parts of Alien's plans, or are folks still assuming this is a back-burner thing to be disposed of as and when we can find a buyer?

@wents - all any of us can do is to wait and see when the price starts to move... I've not got access to any more information than anybody else here, I'm simply working on how long I expect it to take for wider market sentiment to change based upon the fact that releasing company specific news has done nothing for our share price of late where we have spent much longer shedding the exuberance of 2020 than most junior miners, potentially as a consequence of having spiked much higher than most junior explorers in 2020.

As a long term play I still value UFO, as a short term play I feel making specific price predictions is just leaving yourself open to the fickle whims of the markets.

At the end of the day all that matters is that people can live with the consequences of their decisions... whatever they may be... I bought in at a price I was happy with, and haven't committed more than I can afford to lose, if others can say the same they should come to no ill speculating with junior explorers.

well, as I've mentioned before, I built my position here at about 0.1p and stopped adding to it when the price reached about 0.6p in late summer 2020 as that was the last time UFO met my basic criteria of looking undervalued whilst having forward price momentum. Whilst I've held my position without selling any shares, I've spent the last two years advising caution for although we look more undervalued now I still don't see signs of forward momentum in the price (only fundamentals).

As a silver bug I'm a little disappointed to see Mexico sidelined but EH and environs is the better precious metals play for me and it make sense in the near term for a small company to focus its limited finances on where they can be most certain of making a return. Iron ore doesn't excite me as I don't believe it "excites" the market to generate the kind of wild moves you speculate in junior explorers looking for. That's not to say our iron ore isn't worthwhile or can't bring growth and stability to UFO where some more "level headed" investors may just be what we need at this moment.

I'm curious to see how our new CEO plays things over the coming months but, rightly or wrongly, and for the time being, I'm still working on the assumption it may be April 2023 before we see a gradual change in market sentiment. So if the next six months of price action is more or less a continuation of the last six months I won't be surprised. That said, in the current economic climate the most reliable prediction you can make is to expect to be wrong in your predictions. So as 2025 was the date I set for first evaluating UFO's success I'll just wait patiently and watch how things play out.

well this news gives us all something (somebody) to go away and research, for as UFO progresses our outlay on salaries keeps growing.

BBG has shown he knows his way around geology, hopefully Mr McIllree proves himself equally adept in knowing his way around financial markets and brokering funding deals...

...well a few weeks back when the ~$20.50/oz reached in May was being confidently called by some here as the bottom for silver, I suggested that I thought it would break below that quite soon and may have to reach $18.00/oz before bottoming.

In truth my feeling was that various ratios suggested $16/oz as a more natural bottom but it seemed there was such a lot of technical resistance around $18/oz it probably wouldn't get as low as $16....

it looks as if current price action may get to test my thesis very soon.

Many here know that I take a rather patient and long term view to my investments and that I'm not overly interested in the noise of day-to-day narratives. They may also know that I like to compile the kind of statistical data that most of the financial media simply don't publish.

So for precious metals bugs out there concerned about recent price falls give a thought to the following statistics.

Twenty five years ago in 1997 the average annual UK wage (£15,000) would have bought just under 2.5kg of gold at £6,100/kg or a little less than 200kg of silver at £80/kg. Fifteen years ago in 2007 the average annual UK wage (£21,000) would have bought 2kg of gold at £10,400/kg or 100kg of silver at £200/kg. Five years ago in 2017 the average annual UK wage (£27,000) would buy only a little more than 0.8kg of gold at £32,000/kg, or just over 60kg of silver at £450/kg. Today in 2022 the average annual UK wage (£29,000) would buy about 0.6kg of gold at £46,500/kg, or just under 60kg of silver at £520/kg.

Put another way 1kg of gold would pay about 5months wages in 1997, about 6months wages in 2007, about 14months wages in 2017 or about 19months wages today. Similarly 1kg of silver would pay about 2days wages in 1997, about 3.5days wages in 2007, about 6days wages in 2017 or about 6.5days wages today.

In isolation, and over the short term, individual price charts may be noisy and confusing, but precious metal's ability to protect against inflation over the long term seems clear.

LTH here though an infrequent poster; nice to see progress being made, but as with all things the devil will be in the detail;

JV's spread the risk/expense but also spread the returns so we'll have to wait and see what we are giving away and what we are getting in return and if that works out more favourably than trying to directly raise the funds to employ contractors.

Nevertheless any form of progress should be good news and with low mkt cap juniors even a small amount of progress and income can make a big difference to a companies future.

well it's been a long time (some might say an eternity) coming... but it would appear we finally have the management and the plant capable of extracting profitable amounts of gold from our great geology... long may it continue for if we keep this up long enough it might even benefit the share price ;-)

"I don't see China going into Taiwan HH think its just a flexing of muscle lets hope so for god sake."

@944 - not sure if it was me you meant by HH but if so I don't recall saying anything specific about China and Taiwan. I made a more general comment about black swan events and that when things get messy economically people can elect new leaders with extreme views and a desire to re-write rule books if not geographical borders. Whilst I hadn't got any particular nation in mind you don't have to look far to find possible problems and conflicts.

Here in the UK even our own government is turning on itself. In America a recent survey showed a large proportion of the population was so dissatisfied with their own government they were willing to take up arms to fight them. Europe has long been a pressure cooker of different nations with different ideals all trying to operate under a system of rules that seems to benefit only those who get to write the rules... that's without looking as far as Russia or China.

I've no idea what China's long term plans are, but given that they do tend to think much more long term than western nations it may be more likely that unexpected problems originating closer to home may be more of an immediate concern.

.. anyway before this becomes too political I'll leave it at that.

HH

@smiller - whilst I suspect you are probably correct about the FED backing down about interest rate hikes, I see that as sufficiently predictable as to not count as a black swan event for many economists have been suggesting this for a while.

Who knows what might be in the future but there are an awful lot of nations that are arguably insolvent and only surviving on free liquidity and the support of their neighbours. When nations fall apart economically, history suggests that their people elect radical political leaders with extreme views and a desire to re-write the rule book if not geographical boundaries. True black swan events come from out of nowhere as total surprises and so can only be reacted to after the event.

@norm - like you I'd gladly take steady boring growth over another crazy spike. - however whilst I do believe the "value" of the company may grow steadily I suspect the SP may continue to stagnate for a while longer.

Rightly or wrongly I've previously suggested that I see April 2023 as a possible point for a gradual change in sentiment, I'll just have to wait and see if it manifests as a gradual increase in SP. However the nature of "black swan" events is that they can't be predicted in advance where I do believe that in today's unstable economy such events are becoming more probable; that something unexpected will eventually cause a big swing in sentiment. This in turn may cause the markets to dramatically re-evaluate where they see value, and maybe even what they define as value. Something which is unlikely to be supportive of stable markets with gradual changes in share prices.

In short I don't see a way out of the current macro-economic problems that doesn't involve a lot more volatility, and when things get stormy it is the smallest boats on the ocean that get blown around the most.

I've always worked on the notion that external macro-economics governs the number of potential investors looking at a particular sector or company, internal company news governs the number of those potential investors that commit cash and become actual investors. Company specific news has to be of an extreme nature before it is picked up upon and widely reported beyond its usual audience.

General sentiment for most financial investments is low at the minute as folk fear recession, sentiment for risk-on assets like junior minerals explorers is all but non-existent.

UFO are doing their bit and putting out a steady flow of positive news, but to some extent, despite all the investor presentations and news releases, it seems they are largely talking to their existing investors.

We know how our SP can move when the wider markets decide to get behind the junior exploration sector, but until then whether we call it low morale or not, most here have come to accept that we may have to wait a while for our positive progress to bring financial rewards.

Well it seems the silver price low of mid May was just another stepping stone on the way down as it's now below $20/oz

Most folk remaining here now share my pragmatically moderated and patient optimism. Yet for some time I was portrayed as a miserable de-ramper for not ceaselessly predicting huge and imminent price gains.

After the exploration sector's exuberance of 2020 I repeatedly challenged this board's dominant narrative predicting UFO's explosive growth throughout 2021. Similarly I started 2022 by suggesting that we'd likely have to continue enduring the disconnection between issuing good news and our share price stagnating. Over the last eighteen months UFO has announced steady progress, but exploration projects typically need over a decade to reach production, and even the most rapid tend to take at least a couple of years. In part, this may explain why our share price which began January2022 just below 0.7p ends June no higher, and is yet to breach the 1.3p upper ceiling held since the end of 2020.

It seems logical to assume that those who invested in a company will think more favourably about its prospects than those who chose not to. Although I have not added to my holding in almost two years, I have remained invested in UFO as the potential long term rewards appear to outweigh the short term risks. Yet in terms of price moves over the next few months little would surprise me, but sentiment for the junior exploration sector remains low. So, whilst it is getting harder to suppress excitement about what our future seems to promise, I'm guessing that our dormant share price may remain below what many here consider fair value for a while longer. If so I will keep focusing upon UFO's fundamentals more than our share price.

There are no guarantees of immediate riches but I am hopeful that we will end 2022 with greater clarity about how and when we are to start generating revenue so as to work towards self-funding future exploration work. Markets can, and repeatedly do, make fools of those making price predictions. Nevertheless, rightly or wrongly, I'll say again that I feel things seem to be hinting at a gradual change in sentiment around April 2023 and that whilst I'd hope for much more progress before 2025, it has always been my first date for appraising UFO's success.

Central banks are currently walking a stagflationary tightrope between the proverbial rock and a hard place, with low growth and high inflation. Although defensive investments still remain largely out of favour with institutional and mainstream private investors, the gradual erosion of trust in the status-quo continues. Over the years the establishment's increasingly short term "solutions" seem to have been nudging us ever closer towards the macro-economic and geo-political turmoil they say they wish to prevent. Consequently it would seem increasingly beneficial to patiently maintain an appropriate position to hedge against the growing risks of greater volatility, recession and perhaps an eventual deflationary collapse.