Member Info for HappyDays2U

The real spread is within 1p of each other so very tight.
I'm starting to think some people know something us mortals don't? Usually the case when they jump this much this quickly.

Yes, I'm expecting a good day tomorrow. We only need the results to show we do not need new funds and a good rerate of the SP should come.
ABDX have hired around 60 to 70 people in the last 6 months and that is not the actions of a company short on funds would take.

I should think so to! If the treatment the goverment gave us gets classed as VIP I hate to think what they do to companies on the Not,very, important list.
Wonder what this means with the GLP case. As everyone said at the time it was crazy they picked on us when there was so clearly much worse stuff going on left, right and center. Will it get dropped?
It was used to knock 45p off the SP so I want that back if it is.

Good work again Muck you do find some good hidden gems.
So the Biden admission is spending $1 billion on Diagnostics, specifying home LF testing as a priority with cheap and easy to use being top of the wish list. Vatic is still (to my knowledge) the only fully saliva only test on the market. This makes it by far the easiest to use and this confirms its getting tested and approved in the US.
One would say the ducks are aligned rather nicely. Vatic test due to be ready to produce by ABDX in mass, next month!

In June the company had 4.9 million in cash.
We are owed 6.7 million by the goverment. Trusting we get this (and as the goverment has used the 1 million test we provided them I can not see how they can possibly by law get out of paying for them no matter what the outcome of the GLP case). It gives us a cash position in house/ backlog owed of over 11 million. That makes up around 35% of the current market value of the whole firm.
We have just pumped 20 million into the business, we can take the 5 million cash out so 15 million of new machinery, IT automation and premises.
11 cash 15 new investment = 26 million.
Before the IPO I believe (not sure on this one could be more) 12 million in assets. Add this to the 26 gives us 38 million and we have a MC of 31.5! There will be some small det but we still currently have zero! Future earning built into the SP.
This company was correctly valued at £100 million only 11 months ago.
The only reason that could be given is concerns that cash will run out. No gobsmacking results are needed on Thursday, so long as they show no new financing is needed then by rights this ridiculous undervaluing will be balanced out and a big rerate will follow.

The SP went up over 50p in a day on the reverently small news of a Tecnical Transfer being completed for just one of the products we are manufacturing.
News that we have even half of our manufacturing capability in production should get the SP well over £1. If its all of it, then it should be comfortably over £2...and that would still be a give away!

Nice! The Vatic 'Knownow' test will clean up!
Most accurate, easiest to use and mutation proof, equals no brainer.

Well market sentiment has this at 34.5p not sub 30 so.......tealeaves!
#40%profitmargin
#150milliontestayearcapasity
#Besttestsonthemarket

Thanks for your tealeaves predictions there Jolly. I will take me chance and say you are wrong.
Throughout their 13 year history ABDX have been a solid company that nearly always posted profit. They only lost 3.3 million last H1 despite not being paid the 6.7 million they are owed by the government. If we had an honest goverment they would have made a 3.4 million profit. The Company finances are not as bad as you, and any others looking for a cheap entry price like to make out...you, I exspect know this as well which is why you want to buy in before Thursday when the results confirm it.

What we will hopefully get and will stop (if good) any SP fallback is forecast revenue. With the knownow and Avacta's tests being ready to produce in mass next month and all our other tests on top, we could have very tasty forecast revenue which will rocket this up and keep it there.

This will be interesting. The Market (by the SP) clearly thinks we have been struggling, but we know we have been employing so all will become clear in these results.

I was just doing some covid research at lunch. If you type in ‘Covid Cases UK’ into google you get some good Google graphs that look at cases / deaths in any country or, the worldwide picture.
I wanted to compare yesterday with the same day last year and the figures do not suggest the vaccine rollout has been anywhere near as successful as we are all told. (A quick disclaimer here, I might now come across as an anti vaccine person which I am definitely not, I just like looking at numbers and this is what they say)
10th Nov 2020 – worldwide cases 558,996
“ “ – Deaths 10,515
10th Nov 2021 – Cases 572,992
Deaths 8,112
So after all of those billions of vaccines over the past year, more people have covid today than this time last year.
The number of people that died of covid yesterday is only 23% less than the amount that died on the same day last year.
This is no freak day. The numbers will say a similar story whatever day you pick several weeks either side of this date. So a vaccine that 90+% effective, that many more people now have, than don’t have so…. why are cases and deaths not at least, 50% better?
Looking at the numbers the logical guess can only be because the protection they give is clearly fading. They haven’t managed to vaccinate everyone the first time round yet so worldwide booster programs will never be able to keep up. National / global wide (antibody) testing is needed to priorities only those that need it and regular (LFT) self tests and isolation if you catch is still the only way to curb the spread.

Good find.
On an optimistic side. It says over coming weeks so a short study and we already were not expecting their test to be on the market until December (so a few weeks time).
They also have a mission statement to produce multiple tests for all sorts of things so this could be for another test they are developing?

I do share the concern of the locked in period coming to an end in mid December.....but, I'm hopeful on 2 fronts.
1) Will anyone want to sell at a 60+% loss? No, so as long as they still see growth from this point on they will hopefully keep hold of what they have.
2) If the BOD have any sense then some investors PR whooing will be coming in the next few weeks. They will surly want to keep their current investors happy and interested and they will know to do this they will need to release a trading update before mid December. It pushes for news to come soon I'm sure.

Another Pro, this is good news... test test test.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-59232795

I'm expecting the SP to get a positive reaction to this. Always a bit of a lag but it will come.

Switzerland has recently approved Antibody test as a way to obtain a covid passport. I exspect others will follow as society can not exclude the unvaccinated forever.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thelocal.ch/20211103/switzerland-approves-antibody-testing-for-covid-certificate/%3famp

That will mean many millions of test needed for a long time.

I'm fancying a bit of an afternoon run on this.
Only right that we should at least get back yesterday's unjust drop. Good times are ahead.

Hi Muck,
You have fair and good points, this share has risks for sure but for me, weighing up the risk / reward makes it a no brainer.
If we are just looking at the covid test side the risks look bigger. Will we make money from covid tests? absolutely for sure but how much and for how long is a big unknown. The problem with this share is it will take a long time (or just one good RNS) to shake off its 'covid stock' lable. The paper Diagnostics industry is due to grow to over $12 billion a year by 2027 which I not including covid tests. Covid has been one dig global advert for LFT's and massively accelerated and highlighted their uses for all sorts of tests. This for me derisks this stock...it is definitely not covid tests or bust!
Now the rewards. We can now produce over 12 million test a moth. If we can get to this level and keep it up, looking at simular companies it should get us an SP of around £4.
As I said, risk / reward is well worth it for me.
As for finances I don't know but we had nearly 5 million in the bank a few months ago which is a big buffer. We lost 3.3 million last year but if the goverment paid its bill it would have been a 2.2 million profit! We are basically a profit making company, hiring people to help manufacturing so there is a good chance we haven't used any of the 5 million we have as back up. People like to point out the overspend between trading updates but miss out that this was spent on machinery and a new premises not wages.

Looks like yesterday was a blatant treeshake. Now 37.5 to sell 39 to buy.
Not many shares in circulation and they (MM's) needed some more. Where will we finish today its Friday FOMO day.

I mean no disrespect to anyone but there seems to be some paranoia today (which I can understand with a 10% drop). There is no forward notice going on here. I think the drop is probably due to the news today of a covid pill, I.e if there is a cure we don't need to test and we are known (wrongly although significant) as a covid stock.

1) it's been approved to use which we know doesn't mean it will become mainstream and..
2) a virus's that brought the world to it knees and can , and will mutate will ALWAYS be monitored which means testing.

The professional investment firms mostly work via automated systems now days if one (could well be a wethly PI) is selling, its more likely because the computer modal says its best to balance any risk and put money elsewhere than something bad is going to happen here. They don't care what 'might' happen. We as PI's think haha they must be gutted when it goes up 100% but they don't give a **** as they have a modal that gives them garenteed wins by investing through thousands of companies. If they can derisk or win slightly better somewhere else they will.

Fundamentals.... mass testing will be needed for many years as a minimum(a completely no surprise variant that bypasses the vaccines and we are back at square one).
The biggest players are on our books.
We have massively increased our manufacturing capability and permitted staff.

Each to their own and please do not make any investment decisions on what I think. I'm the same as you and 99% of everyone else on here (although 50% of those what you to think they are the secret wolf of Wallsent