Member Info for HappyDays2U

The Goverments 'Antibody Test Survey' is now live.

https://survey.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/jfe/form/SV_79Wy5dMtjw5CkL4

Check out the first question. Antibody tests can clearly now/soon be requested by anyone! (Just been if you have been invited to take part in a study to date).
Its still an 'if' but if Abingdon are involved in this then a very BIG RNS could land in the next day or two.

Hasn't moved.....YET!
ODX getting a good day due to its only (I think) Covid test being CE marked. No sales etc.
GDR, having a good day for no reason at all, just coz people suddenly a bit more hopeful that they 'might' get some sales?

Then there is ABDX with two world leading CE marked, one EU home test approved covid tests with large pre orders about to be mass manufactured in the next month or so. A antibody test with high potential sales (maybe already happening) and several other (non covid) tests keeping the books turning over...being ignored? This is the one that will get its day and mass overtake the others because it will be on the basis of actual sales, not a stepping stone towards and hope of getting sales which is only what the other stocks have at the moment.

Hopefully the market is working out that as long as there is Covid, there will be a need to be able to test to see if you, your child, your employees have covid..... it still an't a bad old time to be in the LFT business!
Even with covid tests aside the LFT's market is due to outgrow the majority of sectors over the next few years.
In 10 years time the covid LFT will be looked upon like the invention of the wheel. We humans ended up finding many, many, diferent ways to use them and bring them to their full potential.

Good article on the benefits of waste water testing published today.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/opinion/covid-variant-air-sewage.amp.html

I see the government have released their ‘Levelling Up’ plans today. I can’t help but think how insulting these words must feel to Abingdon and its employees.
Abingdon is based in a Tory constituency. Many people there may have voted for them on the basis of their slogans (obviously nothing more than slogans) of “Levelling up the North”, “Build back better” and making Brexit a success etc.
Here is a northern company in a position to expand massively, bringing in potentially 100’s of skilled new jobs to the area. By doing this the government could have also created a plan for future pandemics and future waves of Covid, that would not mean giving billions of tax payers money to the Chinese and ensure the security of homemade onshore testing capacity.
If the government actually meant a word, it says then Abingdon would surly be the poster company they look for. Building back better by creating a world leading northern diagnostics industry for the future etc…..but no! Not only have they received no help, if it wasn’t for privet investment the government would have sent them bust f! So not only not creating new jobs that could be an easy win for them they would actually see another 100+ people on unemployment benefit…. Basically, losing their jobs and livelihoods because the billions of investment promised to them has gone to China so they can now create and dominate the LFT market.
The MP for this area is Kevin Hollinrake.
kevin.hollinrake.mp@parliament.uk
https://twitter.com/kevinhollinrake
If anyone happens to live in this area (Thirsk and Malton) I beg you to contact him and ask how he can represent a Party that says these slogans when their actions are to do the exact opposite. What is he doing to help this company and its employees?

Sileng, your post sums up the strangeness of the situation perfectly...not saying you are strange, your post is technically correct at this stage in time.
"Covid is not going anywhere". I think this is something everyone now agrees on. Also the scientific community now all agree that herd immunity will also not happen, so it really is here to stay forever.
Covid testing is ending?
The two together do not make sense, yes people may say we don't all test ourselves for flu (yet) and we all get on with our days when we have a cold etc but....
Covid is mega more contagious than Flu. It can rip through an entire workforce in no time.
Yes, most in hospital are not vaccinated but not all. Some healthy, full vaccinated people are still in hospital and dieing of covid...people do not die of colds.
One thing I think covid has definitely done is change people's attitudes towards acceptance of people turning up to work unwell (whatever it might be). I can't see a world where "don't worry guys I think its probably just a little covid", "oh right no worries" happening....ever!
So people either stay at home every time they get a sniffle, which means a lot of people off work a lot of the time, or quick, cheap LFT will be needed in very large numbers for the foreseeable future.
We just need to get our products done (please God!) and I think the goverment stopping free supply will actually help ABDX. You can't compete with free but I am sure a very large market (big firms etc) will remain for covid testing for a very long time.

Anther BS drop based on nothing (very low volume) oh well.

Anyway, other news I came across this which is very interesting. Published just a few days ago. As previously noted Antibody testing is clearly making its way up the pecking order.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/26january2022

In one of the links within this article there is this statement.
Recognising the importance of this essential information, we have recently increased our antibody testing to more adults in our survey by introducing a new finger prick test which can be done by the participant themselves in their home (a little bit like testing for a blood sugar level in the blood). This will eventually enable 150,000 people across the UK to be tested for antibodies every month for the next year, and therefore we hope measure how protection against SARS-CoV-2 virus changes over time. This will provide critical information on the pandemic and how we can plan to lift restrictions and return to normality.

I know the goverment use Surescreen Antibody tests but they only give a Yes/No answer. For this survey to be useful surly they would want an indication of the level of Antibodys and how quickly they are decreasing? I.e. ABDX semi-quantitative test.....here's hoping.
Link to blog with cut statement below.

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-how-do-they-relate-to-one-another/

Well yes, almost ditto but I'm even worse. 48% down... not good I know and I feel for you and everyone else who is down....but, if I thought the BoD couldn't turn it around, were not trustworthy, didn't know how to grow a business and this will not all turn out much better in the near to midterm future. I would cut my losses now and go...hence my question. You only seem to see bleak news ahead? Better to be 40% down than 50/60%, so what keeps you here?

Pumpky, because Bournemouth got relegated last season it doesn't mean Chelsea will this season does it. Stop comparing us to ODX, two different companies run by different people.
You clearly don't see a good future ahead here so why stay invested?

Still looking for more Production Operatives. This one posted yesterday. Successful Applicant start date ASAP!

https://jobs.cubedresourcing.co.uk/vacancies/2045/production-operatives.html

Either the BoD with their Oxford degrees are following some business modal that purposely burns money or, these Production people actually have something to help produce? I'm hopeful it will be the latter. You may spend overheads on development of new products etc but you surly don't pay for extra members to the production team unless you need them to help produce more end product?
The Trading Update should tell us what we need to know. Last year one came on the 26th Jan (tomorrow) so hopefully we will not need to wait long.

The Market is basically saying at the moment.
The only LFT's needed are Antigen ones.
The only country that purchase them are the UK.
The UK will no longer (now or in the future) need to do covid testing.
If you also believe this then sell. If you don't I recommend holding or buying in.

Just bumping my original post as I think it's very significant. The goverment are finally specifying what they want an Antibody test to do. They are also confirming they are currently validating them to the high standards expected.
For home testing they specify it must give semiquantitative results....Abingdon have next to no competition in this area!
The goverment (and if UK do it I exspect others will follow) were not entertaining home Antidoby testing before, now they clearly are and our AbC-19 test is just about the only one that can meet the requirements ....it could be massive!!

Recent goverment website updates, check them out!
Updated a couple of days ago..
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/national-standardised-test-performance-process-for-manufacturers-of-sars-cov-2-virus-antibody-tests

And this one, updated end on December...the spec 'for home testing' almost describes Abingdon's AbC-19 test, fairly sure it would pass all requirements no problem.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-tests-and-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-covid-19-work/target-product-profile-antibody-tests-to-help-determine-if-people-have-recent-infection-to-sars-cov-2-version-2

With the goverments 'Antibody test survey' coming soon as well its a clear as it can be (IMO) that Antibody home testing is being lined up! Come on ABDX!!

Yes, it's annoying the market batters the SP for maybe loosing something we never had or where likely to get...I.e. supplying the goverment.
The end of free testing should actually work in our favor.
Companies will (a fair number at least) still want to avoid mass absence and pay for testing. This will be at higher profit margin rate than supplying the goverment. The big firms will want quality as well which knocks the Chinese tests out of the competition.
Everyone gets so hung up on what the UK goverment is doing. Covid testing is a global market which is/will be worth many billions for many years yet... no matter what the UK goverment does!

Worth noting that the UK is just about the only country in the world even thinking about scapping test (wonder why that is...us Brits love our holidays, give them that back Boris and all will be forgiven....think not!)
You might not need to test coming into the UK but you still need to test to get in wherever you are going to.

Worth a reminder ABDX released a Trading Update on the 26th Jan last year.
I willll not hold my breath that we will get one this week but its a definite maybe?
My guess is they will hold off until they have a clear picture of how much longer the AVCT test will take, Vatic TT. Also I exspect the goverment are still dangling a carrot that implies they will pay us 'soon' so they may want to wait if they think that process is near completion....but hey, not to say these things are not already known and we get an TU RNS this week?

Yes we are well due a correction to the SP. I think (for what it's worth) 25-30p is fair value based on assets alone.
Just as the MM's marched the prise down on little volume or selling pressure, I'm hopeful they will pick a random time to decide to do the reverse. Unfortunately they always drop prices much more freely than they rise them, but surely even the MM's can see this is massively undervalued at the moment.

Interesting. This is a US medical news website referring to the AbC-19 study. One of "very few" user studies avaliable.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.docwirenews.com/abstracts/user-experience-of-home-based-abc-19-sars-cov-2-antibody-rapid-lateral-flow-immunoassay-test/amp/

Thanks for saying LordPaul...as LSE BB's go this is a very good one with nice decent and respectful (most the time) posters...we are in this together!

BTW, just noticed I got my maths wrong in my last post so before I get accused of being a misleading 'ramper'. 1 in 200 people using a LFT a day would mean 40,000,000 tests needed per day, so ABDX could supply the world for nearly 4 days, meaning 91 ABDX factories would be needed...not 183.
Still my point being, even with less than/around 1% of the market, ABDX would be at (current) full capacity, consistently making 150 million test per year!

Cheers Muck, two great articles.
Whatever happens, LFT can not be beaten for ease and price for individuals to test themselves at home....New tests coming to market need back up machinery etc.
LFT's are here to stay and will be developed to diagnose just about anything ourselves without waiting for ages in germ speading GP/A&E waiting rooms. It will make sense, and be cost effective for goverments / insurance firms to fund these for the cost saving of medics time dealing with diagnosing Flu etc..
The Market is huge even during low covid periods.
ABDX at full yearly capacity (150 million test) could only supply 2% of the world for one day!
If only 1 in every 200 people need to do a covid test a day, the world would need 183 Abingdon's to supply the worlds needs.