RE: Production within 18 months?28 Mar 2022 14:34
Posted by me in February:
haggismchaggis1
18 Feb '22
Posts: 4,509
Price: 0.875
PageofCups,
Well argued points! I think Crusty has been here so long that he's become the eternal pessimist, the Victor Meldrew of the AEX BB. Not that it bothers me, as there's good reasoned and well informed argument coming from the other side.
As I said at the start of this thread, I'm sure AEX will be looking at reworking KN-1 in the summer, whether it happens we'll have to wait and see, but CH-1 won't be a producing well for some time (presuming it is drilled successfully in Q3), as the connecting pipeline will need to be built, so I see KN-1 as essential to the Tanzania Government. I'm also sure that in the discussions over owned monies, AEX made KN-1 a bargaining chip, and the Tanz Govt paid up with, I believe, a verbal agreement that AEX would get KN-1 up and running as soon as they can. As you said, they need approval, and that could land any day. Now that the O&G Govt bodies have been kicked into shape, I think we could see that approval in time to AEX to organise the work to take place in the upcoming dry season between May and November.
Just read the below announcements in chronological order a few times and it seems obvious that Tanz Govt want KN-1 up and running, AFC used it as a bargaining chip and won, on the basis that AEX get it up and running as soon as approvals land on their desk. Also it is clearly 'low cost', and AEX scooped $1.85m from the monies owed settlement. $1.85m for the work would not be low cost when you compare it to drilling costs, it should easily be affordable and I'm also sure that being 'low cost' the partners will have no problem funding it, because they know that with gas sales they will get that investment back very quickly.
30 June 2021. The Company continues to explore the opportunity through remedial work to restart production from our Kiliwani North well. We, therefore, continue to see value in Kiliwani North through a low-cost remedial work programme. However, no work can progress on Kiliwani North until resolution is reached on the Kiliwani North receivables.
15 October 2021 Payment of Kiliwani North Gas Receivables. As previously announced, the Company and the TPDC have been engaged in constructive negotiations over the last few months which have resulted in an agreed settlement.
18 November 2021. Receipt of Kiliwani North Gas Receivables. US$1.85 million. (paid within 3 days when they had up to 30 days, pretty much unheard of in Tanzania to be paid this quickly).