Member Info for Guvvi

And results in 2 weeks or so, this is glorious stuff.

The point is we've no idea what is driving the drop, could be a large seller, could be lots of little sellers spooked by headlines. The idea that very exactly the market is pricing in 20% long term risk to this businesses long term value is ridiculous on this sort of timeframe.

The reason for the drop may be interesting but it's not useful right now. Chunks of this business could be bought for 103p all morning in huge quantities if you wanted to which is an incredible opportunity in my view.

We have a suggestion now that on the smallest of timeframes intraday the market is logical...

I've bought quite a lot today, very heavily invested here now. Today's price is far too cheap in my view for a company likely loaded with cash, loaded with debts due to them for the last 3/4 months and about to announce record profits for Q4.

The spreads are so close i would be wary of taking buys and sells as they are marked.

Just pay attention to what you pay and that you're comfortable with it.

Can we have a show of hands from people who care not for pivot points, seasonal variations in share movements based on history, bowls, double tea cups and all this other nonsense but rather how this company is available today for about £280m?

I've just bought a huge amount more at 102.9 as I strongly believe this is a heavily discounted rate available today.

I’m going to repeat that I expect that our business which is trading for 320m ish and I believe will report it has approx 100m dollars in the bank soon will maybe also make AT LEAST 100m this year ( that may even end up being the fcf figure ) .
I do believe rhodium could well drop a bit for a long period of time. This will not change the risk reward enough for anyone looking for a great investment for the future.
Watch these debtors unwind too into the cash in bank figure from the first 6 months of the year during the second half. Gonna be immense.

Who is Ben?

I'm pretty bullish on this. We should expect some sort of production increase relative to Q1 as well as much higher basket prices maybe 10%/20%.
It's hard to know what sort of sales adjustments might be made and this had a massive impact in Q1 but really on the whole i'd expect record profits for this quarter and to end the year.

Going forward i would expect slightly lower quarters but still enough to push the company to much higher highs.

The number we need to focus on is the cash balance. Even though we've paid out 33m ish for tax and 14m for the divi post the last cash statement of 100m we are going to see a huge increase again as the money from Q1 rolls in and the debtors figure probably goes down into the future.

I'm going to guess we might already be back up to 100m dollars in the bank at end of June.

That looks to be fairly blunt but informative about the mine life, gold value etc. The company with the 51% interest in it can be bought for £70m.

Am I missing something it appears literally nothing will move this share price north!?

Yeah the real spread looked tiny towards the end of the day i saw seeing trades go through 0.1p apart assuming they were buys/sells.

It is what it is. When you own a business you own a business, got to be in it for the long haul. Hummingbird doesnt have any debt so you can afford to be patient and just let them make money.

Up again now 18.8 - 19. Very tight considering the volume isn't anything special.

CFEP, MREX, SCAP, WINS, CANA, PEEL, JBER, SING.

PEEL and SING both upped their pricing between 2pm and 3pm today.

I've got lvl 2... 18.78 / 18.9 is the most recent trades going through and obviously these are guessed at sells and buys respectively but with MMs advertising 18.5 - 19.

Certainly very tight and volume is average at 1m so far today.

Everybody needs be calm, very calm. Remember what is on offer here for £340m today and chill. As ever way too much interest in daily news articles, scaremongering and other random impulses.

If i didn't have a wife i'd sell the house, rent and buy another massive chunk of it. ( it might be a good thing that i'm married actually for this reason ).

Results only about 5 or 6 weeks awaym, let's see how much money our company has made this time, who cares what the share price is gonna do.

My guess is quite a bit better than Q3 which was an absolute knockout for reference.

If you don't like watching individual shares going down sometimes just index. Otherwise this appears to me to be one of the bargains of the UK market even if PGMs slide considerably.

They mentioned both funds. 1st fund is 70% committed now and the second fund they anticipate no issues raising at 300 million dollars. They said once or twice that they are close to fully committing the 1st fund and that a second fund would be looked at afterwards. They want to do the second fund and despite it's size ( its much bigger ) they see the demand for it and no problems raising the money from interested parties.

So there is nothing concrete here but if you trust the management then the first fund is nearly committed fully ( which isn't bad going if you ask me in such a short time ) and the second fund will be massive and raised asap after the first.

Yeah Tharisa made £124m EBITDA... in 6 months lol. Market cap £388m ish.

What i can't get my head around is how little people are mentioning the way this cash pile is building up. The smelters pay SLP over the 4 months after ' sale '. SLP estimate their sale in a quarter based on the previous month's prices, this is why we had a huge stinking 15m sales adjustment recently. Since that quarter production should have gone up slightly and the PGMS in general for almost 2 months have been higher by a material amount.

So they last quoted £100m cash and £60m ebitda ( more useful for cashflow than net profit here ) and are likely as far as i can tell to beat this in the final quarter - maybe by quite a bit

So that cash figure is higher now as they collect the £60m for q3 slowly and will jump again as q4 money rolls in through to the autumn.

I know this should be in dollars and that the dividend was post q3 end and that tax is 27% but i really think SLP could be sat on 200m in the bank end of 2021 even if the PGMs pull back generally now.

This is madness when the market cap is £330m!!