Member Info for Guvvi

Florence where are you!?

Our market cap is still £54m and if i was a depressed mr.market today it could well be way lower than this.

I don't think its fully priced in. I think we have now had a year with a COO which has been the worst ever as far as production goes, it's only a stubbornly high gold price that keeps us in business at this point.

They've lost 6 days here and recently said ' lower end of the guided range ' which was 100k to 110k. We are now 20% lower.

I run a business to am reasonably sympathetic but they are saying their mining contractor is still struggling etc. ****ing sort it out you've had months to manage this situation it first came up in september.

I hope I'm wrong but 8am today could be a disaster. fingers crossed.

Horrow show indeed. Still blaming the mining contractor for issues and the AISC is now a whopping number.

What good is any NPV figure when this management screw everything up? And i'm supposed to be one of the bullish investors here !!

agreed

All I know is if my business had the attributes that Made.com has, was confident of 40% year on year revenue growth but had to defer some of that revenue to early next year i'd be absolutely delighted.

It has 100m in the bank too still?

So in a disrupted market for everyone we are having to defer about 10% of our annual revenue but they are able to confirm 40% year on year revenue growth.

Market has massively over reacted to this.

If I assume 30% revenue growth next year and broadly very similar operational gearing/margins ( which might be a bit conservative ) i get an ebitda of about £40M. If that's true then at this price it's about 10x next years earnings.

That also doesn't allow for the cash they hold.

Just my view but this is just becoming more and more valuable as a business whilst getting cheaper.

How much do they think less than 49% of Dugbe is worth to have sunk so much capital into it?

Answer - quite a lot.

https://www.pasofinogold.com/news/news-details/2021/Pasofino-Gold-Announces-a-Non-Brokered-Private-Placement-of-up-to-US5.5-Million-Supported-by-a-Strategic-Investment-of-Approximately-US4.5-Million-Subscription-from-ESAN/default.aspx

Don't really care about bonkers everyone should do their own work here. I personally don't like the 10% discount rates applied to get the NPVs so i go further but you still get good numbers.

So that's me and where i am. No leverage, just holdings i believe in.

Whether Bonkers can spell or not I think he is right and I'm discounting the NPVs even further for my own benefit.
For better or worse i really do believe the price here doesn't reflect the value on offer.

https://www.pasofinogold.com/news/news-details/2021/Pasofino-Gold-Announces-an-Updated-Mineral-Resource-Estimate-MRE-for-the-Dugbe-Gold-Project-Including-3.4-Moz-in-Measured--Indicated---a-One-Million-Ounce-Increase-Paving-Way-for-Completion-of-the-Definitive-Feasibility-Study-Which-Is-Well-Advanced/default.aspx

@thethinker - I'd definately do more thinking and less typing sir.

Pretty hard to get a quick buck with these spreads but maybe who knows.

Also - don't care.

Florence speaks the truth.

There isn't many of us on this board so we should all enjoy an ' i told you so ' moment between ourselves shortly !

For what it's worth i'm doubting the 20p a share guesses. I think 17.5p-19p.

But so much of this is listed securities and cash and looking forward to the end of next year i don't see how the NAV isn't substantially higher again ( ascendant payment time ) and even more secure.

I honestly think this is a bargain even without LS ever getting off the ground.

Whatever your feelings are right now the update should be out shortly and then you can see it all for yourself ( hopefully at the levels we've all suggested ).

I think this is a pretty safe investment really and the business is performing really well even without LS.

@Harrysdog... Also regardless of the LS development you have a NAV well spread across various investments that is growing rapidly and is problably somewhere in the £6m range.

So best case in 5 years we all feel good and LS gets off the ground or some value is attributed to that. Worst case it's delayed or not viable etc but we probably still have a NAV much higher than we have today. I think JV mentioned in one of his latest news releases or interviews that the NAV has grown by around 49% a year over the last 5 years.

There is some fairly smart investments being made with the cash MAFL receive underneath the attraction of LS.

I'm expecting a huge increase in the nav given the timing of the last update. Great place to be invested for the long run in my view.

Raise funds? They're sat on 56m dollars !