Member Info for Guvvi

Yeah maybe the Mali situation gets so bad that everything Hummingbird has ever done and currently owns is worth nothing.

Or maybe Hummingbird is still around in 5 years ( much more likely ) and is generating more profit than today.

Shall we vote ?

I find that people can become totally obsessed with political issues and imagine really inexplicably negative scenarios taking shape.
I'm sure there will be the odd blip in the road etc but i doubt it'll change a great deal in the long run.
I'm at work today and our business is doing what it did last week and the month before without any issues. Meanwhile global stock markets tank on fears that businesses can't do so well and bond yields are up 0.5%.

It's quite funny when you break it down.

I agree i'm well down on this but my average is an acceptable number in the low 20's.

I mean look at Pasofino market cap and they don't even yet have half of something Hummingbird have.

I think this is a good investment for anyone where we are or even above.

But who knows right...

Spot on which is why i've been slowly buying all year.

I agree with Bangrak completely.

It's very possible this is worth 200p and profits double but this depends on entirely on PGM prices. But that is what this business hinges on now.

I'm speaking to lots of car makers ( i'm a car nut with a nice garage of bits ) and they are predicting this runs into next year at least. If this is true then even looking forward a year it's hard to see much change from current position, a modest one maybe. A big one seems hard to see for me.

So yeah maybe it's worth huge money but remember then you are stating that you believe the private market at 200p is gonna pay 550m sterling for these dollar denominated cashflows in a 27% corporation tax jurisdiction.

Hence i think big valuation are quite improbable. But that's just my view.

I'm with bangrak on this one. Anything is possible but if his historic p/e is about right i wouldn't hope for any more suddenly.

Maybe but in this case top holders of shares are, in order...

Africa asia capital
HL
II
Miton
Aj bell

This suggests to me a fairly concentrated ownership between Africa Asia and a lot of retail investors. So you're asking exactly the right people here !!

What everyone will sell for will be highly influenced by the board and tested i guess. FWIW i actually think this makes a great takeover target for any larger mining company looking for exposure to the PGM market, it wouldnt surprise me at all if investors were tested at some point.

What i can't work out ( i'm going to ramp for a minute here ) is who the hell is selling SLP in the eighties? The volumes have been big the last 4 or 5 sessions. Millions of shares sold so cheap.

Sometimes you see big price swings on low volume which i get but this is all on high volume!

Chatmandu - what's important to note is my valuation hasn't changed lots at all but the price has. As Velo was saying who knows why SLP is down, actually generally why lots of stuff has got pretty cheap but it has.

I had no idea SLP would be offered at 85p and i really don't trade but i do think if SLP was 115p tomorrow i would sell it. But i have to because roughly that's how i've valued it.

Many work differently and there is no perfect way but it does pay to do your own work and study these things as you only have yourself to answer to.

Agree with these last 2 posts wholeheartedly. These are my valuations roughly today too, obviously in a year you'll be adding a big chunk of cashflow to the valuation pot too and as we are talking fairly low p/e's this will and should have a 20% odd effect on the valuation.

I'm out by exactly the same amount as you bangrak based on your slightly different P/E which looks fine to me. you're at 5, i'm at 4 and it's 20p different i'm fine with that. Got to always be a bit conservative too.

Good luck all, this is well worth buying at 2 digit prices starting with an 8. :)

@Stoodio, reference my 115p.
I was calculating a cash adjusted p/e of 4. Once you convert the 100m odd in dollars in the bank to sterling and then adjust a - albeit rough - 100m net profit in dollars to sterling ( estimate for next 12 months but could be very wrong either way ).

You get a market cap nowhere near 2 quid much more like a low ish number starting with a 1.

I'm saying anyone is wrong these are just the numbers i'm looking at to inform my own judgements approximately. I

And i'm definately not just plucking numbers out of the air. i hope we all get very rich over time of course !

I'm back in this morning at 86p. i maintain i currently only value this at 115p ish but happy to be back in at these prices.

I found it interesting they continue to guide for £1250 - £1350 AISC for the full year. The production is gonna have to ramp up quite a bit and/or costs reduce to get to this average but they are happy to reiterate this.

Definately likely undervalued compared to peers.

If you think it's worth 200m and your work is good on that valuation then just wait for the market to catch up with you.

Try to see the price only as an opportunity to buy and sell but keep your valuation in mind.

You'll be ok in the end.

What do you think Hummingbird is worth ? Give me a decent breakdown even if very rough.

Remember in the short term the stock market is a voting machine, in the long run its a weighing machine.

Hummingbird share price if this is what annoys you hasn't been weak for that long, 6 months or so. This is not a long time in stock market terms. You own a business with good prospects and you've paid a reasonable price for it, be patient.

Hi all, new to this board but not the forum. Just started buying lumps of shares here this morning after spending last night reading about the business.

Looks like good risk reward given the cash balance and the likely unappreciated profits coming our way given the CPO price.

Anyone care to add anything to the opportunity here? Any significant risks other than CPO price/covid?

The sales adjustment is made because SLP get paid 4 months after delivery by their customer. If the eventual sales price is higher than they budget over a period then they make a sales adjustment for ' actual realised prices '. Effectively their income is based on averages until this point.

So the lack of an adjustment AND an 11% lower basket price to me suggest prices were a lot softer than q3 which I certainly didn't predict - I had it down as similar or slightly worse not half.

Yeah Chatmandu not sure what you're getting at, noone is forecasting a complete collapse of basket prices.

I think it's reasonable to assume it will remain very profitable as a business but i still end up at or around today's valuation based on my post above.

It's by no means a terrible company, loss making or any of that rubbish.

But unless the profits go up from q4 x 4 i think there is an argument this looks fairly valued. 3 of the quarters this year have been very similar and very impressive, the annual figures year on year are great.

But once you do the conversions dollars into sterling after 27% income tax and a few other costs i think the share price might be about right.

It goes without saying i could be completely wrong mind you, who knows.

I'm going to be honest here and sell quite a bit. Having been following the pgm prices from many sources for the whole quarter im surprised the basket price is down 11%. Not quite so worried about the costs increases and the lower mining recovery %.

I got the cash in bank spot on but my earnings were miles out. On a cash adjusted p/e of 4 i now have a market cap of exactly 300M which is very close to where we are today. I've done a spreadsheet projecting q1/q2/q4 through for a year after tax and converting dollars into sterling etc and still end up in the same place. I'd expected earnings to be at least 50% higher than this really.

There was no sales adjustment ( despite my belief PGM prices were still pretty high for this quarter ) and the basket was lower. This suggests real prices are maybe lower than the charts that track the spot prices?

FYI my holding here is substantial and ive held it for a little over 2 years so i'm sad to be looking at the business like this - i hope i'm wrong on behalf of you all!!

haha yeah again never think of the greed. It's just for me one of the best value shares i've looked at on the AIM market that's all so i'll stay invested based on what i think i know until we get somewhere and i'm happy not to be a part of this.

Half the battle or more is the mental side of this, obviously we all want to make money but there are a few different ways of doing that too. For me it's about investing in businesses i like for whatever reason where i see more value in the future than today.

I know that's not precisely everyone's approach and it might not even suit you ( again hard to tell on a forum from a few posts ! ).