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I think it seems likely that the funds are agreed this is worth staying into on a private basis.

If not they won't get the votes.

Which means that you can almost certainly sell for 42p in the tender up to 500,000 shares.

Just my thoughts.

Yep so again i can't see why not buying at 39p.

I say otherwise !!

Why would you not buy the ask right now at 39p a share??

Agreed Brel, i'm surprised that throughout 2021 nobody has worked this out apart from a few it seems.

Hopefully NAV update soon - maybe that will excite the masses.

What is incredible is that whoever might be interested, noone is. There has been hardly any transactions all week despite the ascendant raise.

Florence has the maths correct.

It is not ascendant buying 3.3%, it is Alasdair Coulson whoever that is. Sounds scottish.

You reminded us that guidance will be at the LOWER end but aisc at the UPPER end and asked how likely it was to meet 1350.

I'm saying totally impossible.

BB2 - f'ing impossible to meet the upper end of one based on the lower end of another? I'm actually now asking myself what this business is worth if you value Yanfolila at zero.

I'll let you know if i roughly work it out.

Also in the interests of disclosure i'm not selling i still think this is cheap enough vs its prospects for me.

But i will not be happy with myself if Q4 is also either a miss or somehow awful and i'll have no sympathy for myself. I should already be expecting it !

Forget 6 weeks, i'm happy to stay for a couple of years if the value is compelling. But do we have a very capex dependant and non cash generative yanfolila now? It feels that way.

If so what is the value of this? Hard to say tbh.

I think some of this is priced in a bit too i.e noone expected 1250 to 1350. I think you've got to be ultra conservative valuing this business. Very frustrating.

@bonkers

Unilever saying prices across the board up 4.1% and the consumer is going to have to deal with it for years. I've no issue with the gold price but the business i own can't do a years work without running into half a dozen serious operational problems !

I think gold is a good place to be for a business like this but by christ they need to sort it out.

I'm happy to allow people to miss targets etc or fail operationally every so often it happens to every company even my own. But these guys just keep consistently missing things for a range of reasons and give you an excuse after the event!? Reiterating full year guidance but at the upper end still... are you for real? The chances of that happening are so unlikely i don't know what to say. As someone above said that would require a level of production unheard of from these guys in years. The next time Dan Betts does an interview and exclaims he doesn't know why the market isn't valuing this higher he can be sure it's because the market is assuming the information from the board is wrong and making very conservative assumptions instead.

On the plus side i still think their prospects looking forward are very good and most of this failure is probably reflected in the price. The market cap is very low and for the reason this RNS highlights - nobody believes a word of what the board says on operations.

I agree and have done the same.

Yes but the 8.5% is only payable on the tranches as drawn down and each tranche has a capital holiday of 18 months.

These are standards terms for projects to enable them to get off the ground. No way this isn't getting built and it shouldn't harm the current business either on these terms.

I agree with toptiger. Make sure you know your companies inside and out and can assess the business you're buying properly.

If it's a business you'd be happy to own for a long time and you can roughly value it then you have a framework for ownership and/or the value in the short term.

You say that but we’ve seen plenty of situations like this over the years.

It could be that this business is worth far less than I believe but I don’t see much information to support this relative to the opposite.

It’s not that uncommon to see a business trading like this at this size.

That isn't my area of expertise but yes i can't find a proposition like this amongst other gold producers so here we are. I think it's a sound investment, my thesis is roughly and basically above.

Lets' make this even simpler. Would everyone be happy buying a business that made £8m a year after tax for £65m? This business has £10m in the bank or in stock too.
It also has 51% ( will be less once it is split between a 3rd party and the gov ) of what appears to be a very large area of future profits either to be developed themself or maybe they sell it. One of the 3rd parties is making the business case for this for free and has an incredible operational track record. This 3rd party has nothing but this interest in said project and is valued at about £20m sterling ( correct me if i'm wrong ).
The business in question also has another area of future profit which will require investment but this will be outlined shortly by the board.
Assuming things go to plan in a roundabout way production will double in the future and the combined AISC and various single revenue stream risks will reduce.

Does anyone wish to buy this company?