RE: Long Term Holders5 Jul 2020 22:41
Evening,
Irrespective of any near term future news flow, my next major target is to see if the higher CLN's get taken out at the strike price of 3.295p - granted, big move north needed for this to happen, but not impossible!
If they do then the future share price will depend on how they finance any future development/investment going forward. I am hopeful they will finance through Project Finance rather than any more dilutive placements or CLN's. Have a feeling it will be mixture of both though and the next time it will be at a discount strike price rather than a premium.
The recent CLN's are the most dilutive at 1p and I am thinking most of these will be taken up quickly if the share price continues to move up over the next few weeks. It appears to me that the CLN investors really believe in the future opportunities for AEG (not many investors would offer to take CLN's in the first place when the share price is under the strike price at the time of issue, most want a healthy discount!) If they are converted this will be a very good sign and will help the share price increase further as debt on the books will be reduced. If the new converted shareholders keep their holdings and do not sell into the market then even better!
The UP trend is very good at the moment and is holding at 1p ish - let's see if this continues into next week when we will hopefully hear the permit news and maybe an update from RDME re the state of play in Canada
Personally I value just the Coalswitch technology at a minimum of £50m considering the size of the growing pellet market along with the USP's that the tech offers when compared to standard white pellet and it is fully exposed to the green renewables play - (sell Oil buy renewables). At £50m the MC before any of the dilution from the outstanding CLN's this equates to 4 pps - Readjusted for CLN FULL conversion then the SP would be 2.4p (£50m MC with no debt on the books) This does not include any value for lumber, new license or litter/peat switch etc..
There may be a few twists and turn still with AEG, but if they start hitting deadlines/timelines then I feel the confidence will return and this will move up very quickly indeed.
All IMHO so please, please do your own research and Good Luck All