Member Info for grsshaw

Thats that settled I guess then bucklerfern!

Not sure I understand bucklerfern,

Anything is negotiable if the deal is right surely, like when ARA provided the loan for the FO - they provided a flexible approach to get things done!

The $35m free carry has the pipeline build included plus many wells with a cash return option built in - so I see that this is totally an option if they don't need the total $140m to fully develop or part develop the fields. When gas is flowing they could then easily afford to put back in more funds if then required to further expand - the cash is still being spent on the Ntyora project not elsewhere!

If it was to go ahead (like I said pure speculation on my part) then the new first carry total will be increased to $8.55m with $26.45m left for future funding of 37.5% and for SCIR to find a more manageable $2.85 for their reduced 12.5%

I feel the Zubair Corp has provided so much patience and support on this project so far, I'm not sure why many believe they have turned their back now and want to slow things down to put pressure on their partners and force fire sale issues!

Maybe I am naive, but if I felt this way about the Zubair Corp then I certainly wouldn't be holding any shares at this time!

For what it's worth my guess on near future events is a AEX merger with WEN

Merged company will then acquire 12.5% from SCIR at approx $10m (using WEN cash) and then use the $35m free carry already in place with AEX to cover the fully increased 37.5%

Dividend will be maintained but will provide a reduction in % yield for investors due to the merger dilution (to keep WEN institution investors happy)- ongoing G & A savings will add value also

Maybe even with a caveat that the new merged company has first option to purchase the remaining 12.5% SCIR should they want to fully exit in the short/med future

Just can't work out how Zubair Corp will play a part with their % holding though - will they increase to pro rata 29% - stay as is - or sell out completely or maybe they will acquire the remaining 12.5% for SCIR

Pure speculation on my part but always like to have a go to predict what may happen - maybe totally wrong of course!

The stumbling block on this is waiting for the PSA announcement so all parties will fully understand where they sit with their respective and future licences for value purposes

IMO the Gov PSA announcement is the key next stage anyway for all the other things we are waiting for to move forward, regardless of a merger

GLA

When valuing companies I use mainly fundamentals - market sentiment is the driver of the day to day share price but most companies are not really valued correctly until they are in the process of being bought out or merged

As an investor, and usually med term, I'm not particularly fussed about the day to day movements as these are usually driven too high or too low depending on the news flow and traders/investors noise (just look at RMS as an example). Yes, I use the share price as an indicator of sentiment especially if I am looking to take a new postion, but when dealing with MC's under £50m shares can be very volatile by the smallest of buying or selling action.

With AEX I am focused on the asset and the free carry and feel confident that this will reward me in time when it hits my exit price - be it next year, or the year after or even the year after that - if a take over or merger happens in the mean time then I may be rewarded sooner!

Not too happy with the delay to drilling, but I am more than happy with the asset and free carry and that a large respected company is now in control of the work programme - this is not drill, raise, drill situation anymore and they are planning this correctly to reach maximum benefit for the business, rather than trying to keep SH's happy for the next potential raise

The work programme has been managed for worst case 'on time' but there are a few clues in the SCIR RNS that if all goes well drilling may well be moved forward!

To raise any short term funding, if required of course, I would prefer Convertible Loan Notes for say 24 month period and fully supported by Zubair Corp with an agreed yearly % yield (no more than 8% please) at a conversion price of say 1.25p

The positive with this option is that it can be supported by Zubair Corp and they will not go over 30% holding if the CLN's are still outstanding. They have the option to pay back the sums before the maturity date or even before that date if cash flow permits - nice, clean and cheapest option

If there are more delays to the work programme and they still need funds to repay the CLN's before the maturity date, then they will be closer to production to arrange a reserve based loan or even raise funds via a placing at hopefully a much higher price than where we are now

Placing fee's are very expensive way to raise cash which is why I feel the loan advance was the preferred option by all parties before the FO was approved and of course no dilution

I am expecting some additional good news soon and feel this will catch out the investor who has sold to maybe revisit in say 10 to 12 months time - stock market always seem to catch you out!

Anyway GLA I'm staying put for now!

CrustyPete,
Understand your point, but there must be a value in the FO and asset regardless of how you decide to calculate it - I guess we just cannot agree on the number :-)

Re your point on WEN as per your example - if the deal is not a good deal then why would Zubair Corp agree to this as their % holding will be greatly diluted with potential complication of introducing any new partners, it would be easier and better value (subject of course to what the potential deal maybe) to take AEX over completely and thereby obtain the full 75% of Nytora as well as the agreed free carry plus all other assets

In theory why could Zubair Corp not buy out AEX at let's say for example 2p a share
Total figure £77m/$100m - which will equate to further paying out £54m or $70m of the share they do not already own

They will then have 75% Nytora and absorb the $35m free carry back in house- $5m cash has already been spent :-(
So using the initial FO agreement at $40m for 50% they will be paying additional $30m in total using 2p per share

Take $20m off for the additional 25% stake (same terms as initial FO agreement)then they are basically paying $10m extra for all other assets. Although they will lose the $5m cash offer as this has been spent but also not included for any cash they may have or are still to receive with the back costs - anything less they 2p offered is greater value still!

Understand their current 30% has a book value to them at present but as they already own this I have not calculated and they owned this when the FO was initially agreed anyway

I just cannot see why owning just under 30% of AEX is of any use to them going forward now they have secured the FO and especially if you look at your comments re potentially losing 40 to 50% of the current assets. Of course this may be an opportunity for them to move out of AEX shareholding completely by introducing another party to take their % holding!

I still see plenty of options available at the moment, so not all is lost IMO

But always good to chat through different opinions :-)

I'm off for a walk

Thank you CrustyPete,

Understand your worse case scenario but we need to find a balance between over and under value here - I am not attempting to ramp this and certainly not to overvalue AEX in anyway, but surely $35m free carry has a value as well as the large (world class) asset it is carrying free! This opportunity requires no more investment and very little work load from AEX to bring to 1st drill result and ultimately first gas. Even if this takes 2 to 3 years, there will be parties interested in this opportunity at this stage and ongoing stages so therefore there is value. What value I guess will be understood when we hear what SCIR will do with their 25% with a $5.7m commitment spend attached to it. Continue, Full FO or part FO

When the FO was agreed AEX hit approx £60m+ MC recently with a work programme still to be agreed - so investors saw value then. Fast froward to now and it's £36m cheaper - so £3m for each month delayed taken off the MC!

Hopefully we will hear on Kiliwani real soon so they can undertake the works to bring back online - I have seen a cost of approx £250k with a lead time of 3 to 6 months once gov approvals received. Plus there's the monies owed for which I believe AEX may receive a % of this, but not the full amount, as a concession to get things back moving (like they did with the CGT) - maybe 50% of the outstanding amount which will hopefully finance Kilwani works and provide ongoing finance till the end of 2021 and future gas sold will cover G & A etc..

Not going to mention the marriage comment anymore!!

GL

So MC is now valued at $31.2 or £24m at last sale yesterday - the farm out is worth $35m so all other assets are valued at zero and all for a potential (Albeit frustrating) 12 month delay!

Would fully understand if there was considerable debt or financial commitments or FO and work programme still to be agreed and completed!

The reaction yesterday reminded me of the SP movement following RA interview back in May when he mentioned Q1 drill date - initial panic selling, then repurchase

At this price it will be interesting to see what happens next as the frustrated investors/traders leave the party and if this situation will bring in plenty of new fresh faced value investors! Have a feeling if this rises quickly some of the recent frustrated sellers will be back in on FOMO

Very undervalued IMO - maybe we will have a benchmark value soon if SCIR can manage to do a deal with their 25%!

I cannot understand why Zubairs will not takeover AEX at say 1.8 to 2p at this rate as I cannot see any value in having just under 30% (according to the current price and sentiment) of a company going nowhere - if they do not take over then surely they see ongoing value with their investment in AEX

Lets see what the market decides, at least over the next week!

Still looking out for the next RA interview as SCIR RNS had far more detail than AEX provided!

GLA

CrustyPete,
Understand the frustration but I am sitting back on this news and trying to make sense with how this affects my investment situation without any short term over reaction. In real terms it means I wait a little longer - so what, not really a big deal to me!

If Zubair Corp had pulled out or suspended the work programme then it would be disastrous for AEX. This is not the case and they are planning a detailed work programme (albeit later than hoped for!), but this is a company that is investing over $100m into this one project and AEX is part of it and feel this will now be professonially managed in the respect of the monies involved here, plus they will have more clout with the government. As you know this is huge investment/commitment and we are talking serious cash investment and serious amount of gas in place and fully carried!

The delays were down to government and not AEX and the interview was in May so this clearly slipped! Yes I used this information which is all I had at the time and I got it wrong!
Am I disappointed with this, absolutely I am but what can I do other than sell up! I will wait this out to see the outcome of why I initially invested in the first place and hopefully receive my reward for my patience!

I agree Plan B will now be required but I have always stated I was looking for more information in addition to the drill dates with the monies owed, Kilwani, marriage comment, PSA review etc..

Will be looking out for updates and news flow and will react accordingly - this news today is very very frustrating yes, but it doesn't change anything with my investment decision at this time other than timing!

Will I be buying anymore? No, as I have enough already and my portfolio is isn't looking particularly very well on this share today :-(

Good Luck with your decisions

Disappointing and very frustrating, but not the end of the world!

Ruvuma is now parked up for AEX and will be left for APT to sort and manage - and assume the dates are set so they are under promising so they can over deliver - but this is Tanzania, so anything is possible!

Asset is still the same asset but now with a serious work programme backed with serious cash (in which AEX is fully carried and still have $29.3m left over following this programme!) - PI will be very disappointed and will react accordingly, but you may find when all settles down that AEX is actually more investable with this programme in place (subject to plans for trade through 2021/22!). Another year/s to the money men/women is nothing if there is serious cash to be made!

RNS states 'Aminex can now concentrate on progressing initiatives that offer value creation for the Company' well this is something I'm interested in and to understand what their plans are for all the outstanding issues and their own go forward plan

Looking out for the new AEX plan to trade upto 2022 on cash flow etc.., but at least AEX is debt free and very limited G & A costs, so provides a little assurance!

Over to you RA - lets see what he has to say as assuming he will provide an interview to talk about the update and what is happening with that potential 'marriage' Then again maybe I should dismiss this comment now that all the other things mentioned didn't happen!!

Still staying invested here - not a great day, but I first invested in the asset and all though further delayed to drill the asset still has value in my opinion

More patience required!

GLA

I haven't an issue with the granting of options- my issue is with the very low exercise price. Yes, the options should reward loyalty plus personal performance but why do this in 2 blocks over 18 & 30 months exercise options at 1p with a very generous over 30% discount

The price should have been at the very least at todays SH or even at the last placement price as they will have plenty of time to decide to take this up over the next 18 and 30 month deadlines!

GLA

Its been 4 weeks today since the RNS confirming completetion so quality (meat on the bone) news updates next week would be more than welcome!
Also, looking for an update with other areas of the business as on Monday it will be the start of the 7th week following the initial government approval RNS!

RA mentioned in his interview and AGM that all concentration and work flow was on securing the FO, so I assume they are now following up on outstanding monies and approvals required to start work on Kiliwani well (which is surely now the priority)
An update would be nice on this please even to highlight the next priorities

Plus we are in the 6th month following the 'Marriage' comment in the RA interview, so I would like to think an update to confirm if talks have or are taking place!

SH communication going forward will be very important and hoping there will be plenty of things happening now

GLA

IMO - the current AOGL share price is a barometer for trading demand only and I don't believe the price paid for AOGL will have any reference to the new opening price - it just highlights/confirms current market sentiment for a certain % holding of the new larger company

The starting auction will decide how this opens either up, down or flat but I would treat this like a IPO and use the base price at 2.84p. This price is used for all calculations and all parties involved that have actually paid for shares or worked out what their % stake will look going forward

Like with buying shares on the open market its your decision to buy, sell or hold, however, if AOGL increases to say 10p pre, then Helium 1 MM's will not automatically set the opening price to pro rata that price - you will still have the same % holding allocated to AOGL SH's regardless of the price it is traded following the 2.84p deal price

As an example - when they negotiated the raise it was originally at £4m then raised to £5m then raised to £6m recenlty, If AOGL SP was used at that time in anyway then why did they not pay, say at over, 5p for that extra £1m raised if it is linked to current trading of AOGL shares

Please also bear in mind AOGL doesn't have a massive % holding in the total company following the deal to have too much SP influence. As mentioned above you will all still have the same % holding in Helium 1 regardless of the price anyone pays before the changes take place

It may well fly on opening and hope it does for you all but consider placing a total value for the new company at the MC potential and not just on how AOGL is performing before the changes

All my opinion - Please DYOR

GLA

Ghastly, I saw this earlier but my feeling on this is that they didn't raise during the wait for the FO to be agreed (they did under Jay for supposedly reworking Kiliwani but not since) and if they were going to raise then why not do this earlier, maybe at the time of the GCT payment, and why did they decide to take a loan rather than dilute at that time and they even put the assets down as security!! They knew they would be paying most of it back to ARA so if they needed cash short term and was going to raise anyway then this doesn't make sense to me to raise after the FO completion. If they were going to raise post FO then why not a few days after the FO announcement when the SP was double where it is now!

They do have some cash at the moment but also very little G & A costs now that 50% and operator has been transferred to ARA, but the article doesn't mention any reference to the RA comment back in May re a potential marriage

Maybe a basis of a marriage deal was already agreed based on either outcome with a FO agreement or without and they certainly didn't want any more shares in circulation when negotiating the deal

Could be wrong though and all of the above is assumptions and speculation from me, so please DYOR

Anyway, I expect a RNS 'shortly' so probably around a 'few days' - which bascially means news is 'imminent' in the very 'near future'
So tomorrow then - which basically means a week tomorrow!

GLA

Only watching this share at the moment, but have share exposure via SCIR (was SOLO Oil)

From experience and only my opinion these will open at 2.84p and then straight into opening auction (which may take upto 10 to 15 minutes to settle in - depending on demand) and the base opening price for increase or decrease and % gain or loss on the day will be from the 2.84p mark e.g. 5.68p will be 100% gain.

Personally, I feel these will open up on the day at least between 30% and 50% and you can then, when trading, judge by trading prices and volumes on how this will then perform from that point. However, if in great demand and no-one is selling, then they could easily go up 100% to draw in sellers and start trading from there!

There may be new investors from the the raise that will flip all or a % of these very quickly for a quick profit or they may stay in sticky hands based on the intial strong demand and potential

I don't think the original stake investors at Helium One will be selling too soon (although this is the first time they have the option to do so and liquidate some of their investment/capital) but remember they are being diluted quite heavily due to the raise so I feel they will all stay put for a while yet. Assuming AOGL investors will not be selling and will watch carefully and may even top up at a weaker share price

Of course it's all assumptions and opinions at the moment but Good Luck to All

Good Luck John2015,

Not a fan of Covid stocks - decided at the very start I would not want to make money off this situation - some may say it is helping by investing, but just not my bag. Seems to me that investors are not behaving well to all the hype and has created a bubble which is not behaving very well when looking at the risk/rewards on offer. Also don't like comments on 'Cases are rising so great for my Covid play' etc.. (not aimed at you BTW John!)

I would be buying SCIR John2015 at this time, not AOGL, as SCIR has actually gone down since the first announcement where AOGL has doubled (went even higher but has come down a bit recently)

I know SCIR have a smaller stake but they also have other assets to play along with which are linked in with AEX - in my opinion this position limits the downside risk plus should also benefit from any upside and have possible further news in play with Ruvuma decision

I am sideline watching at the moment as I like the story on Helium 1 - just not sure why they didn't reduce any dilution to the original team and rather than go for £5m (originally started at £4m) they went for another £1m on top and took £6m when they said a total of £8.5m was the initial value who wanted in. Supply, Demand and Dilution springs to mind!

GL with your decisions

bucklerfern, I have quite a few shares here so they are staged when its hits certain SP targets and some will be held for the longer term as I see massive value for future years to come, subject to being bought out of course!

If its good enough for Zubairs investment money then its good enough for mine as I try to follow the smart money when investing - especially when big money is at play and over $100m is big money, well it is to me!

I don't see the Zubairs Corp taking their cash out of their planned and future investments and panic buying into Pharm companies to try and make a quick dollar - funny that!

I still feel fair value is 1.65p per share or £63.5m MC at this time, then 2p (£75m) when drill information has been announced and then speculation between 2p to 2.5p (£100m) during drilling. When drilling results are announced it will of course be subject to what they find or don't find

2p is my first review target price - when hit, I will then review overall market and sector sentiment and AEX share volume and decide what to do from there

However, there is know way of knowing what appetite there is for O & G stocks when at the stage of spud and drilling at the moment as many are now playing and additive to Covid stocks, so it will depend on market sentiment and where the money flow is at the time. Markets are never predictable on any short term play but even worse at the moment

All my own personal opinion

GL

SP movement is just waiting for news flow while the transfer from impatient to the patient continues

There is so much market noise with certain stocks and certain sectors that trader/investors get bored and enter into the cursed FOMO stage. I am confident my target price/s will be reached in the near future here and I would prefer to relax and wait and see rather than trying to pick the next big thing or worse enter at the wrong price and get stuck into a ramped stock with very little change of getting my money back at all! Feel plenty of recent sellers have the intention of buying back in at some point but have moved off due to opportunities elsewhere

Certain stocks are way too over valued and IMHO in particular Covid stocks are going to strip investors/traders very bare in the near future. There will a massive influx of vaccines being announced over the next months as the whole world is working on a solution and spending millions and billions in the process

Anyway as we wait I am more than happy that AEX take their time to announce a detailed RNS rather than rush into this with multiple diluted RNS's just to try and keep up maximum PR. Still feel there is plenty negotiating and work going on in the background in addition to next drill so lets wait and see - it might just pay to be patient - let's hope I'm right!

GLA

$20m - 25% Ruvuma stake - we may soon find out what the new post FO value is subject to future news with SCIR, but have used $20m as last value used for the FO
$35m - Free Carry - I know some will discount this total as not in actual cash, but I have worked on this figure

Total $55m v £42m exchanged - Current MC @ 0.87p = Values at today £33.5m - share price at 1.1p to reach a MC of £42m

So not priced in for any potential success at this time, in fact its actually discounted and there is no taking into account other parts to the business, monies owed, potential marriage or possible Take Over

SCIR is valued at just over £10m MC so also discounted when looking at Ruvuma!

So it may be discounted due to dealing in Tanzania as a country/government, so it will be interesting to see how Helium 1 is traded when live early Dec. It may just be down to out of favour sector or liquidity due to trading mentality on fast cash and Covid plays - Personally, I feel its a perfect storm and bit of all the above.

If news is released soon and its positive this share will be very volatile and will attract the fast cash traders so a strong rise will be on the cards - the challenge is how long will they stay around after the initial rise!

Not looking at trading AEX now as the liquidity is just not good enough currently!

GLA