Member Info for grsshaw

I would be concerned re next 12 months trading if we had a large debt to work around!

I am sure they could easily obtain a £1 or £2m loan with interest payable end of first year or even 2nd year if they are to go into hibernation for a while. Pity about that GCT bill of just over $2m - that would've come in handy right now! That payment AEX made, when they didn't really agree to the tax value reached, may help to secure payment on the outstanding monies - good will and of that!

Still believe AEX will get taken over soon as the company is certainly positioned for a sale or JV link up - what price or deal mechanic is anyone's guess, but I am sure there is plenty of things being discussed at the moment about the future of AEX, espically when considering the for sale sign for SCIR stake or maybe that's just wishful thinking!

GL

Stiffer the answer to your. question was only posted 22nd Feb (see below)

When dealing with aim listed companies you really need to fully read and digest the RNS carefully, especially when Mr Roman is involved, now he has your money you might not hear too much from him now - hope I'm wrong and news comes thick and fast

Be interesting to see what happens today/tomorrow as I think it will hit and test the 1p to sell price again - need that newsflow

Good Luck All

On Admission, Gravendonck Private Foundation ("Gravendonck"), a substantial shareholder in the Company, and Linarus FZE, who have the same beneficial owner, will have a combined interest in 953,987,189 Ordinary Shares, representing 24.4% of the Company's issued share capital.

That may sound logical Spev but this is the stock market

E.g when the new Primary Bid shares are tradable what's to stop a few new holders booking a nice 10% return, this reduces the price to 1.05 then a few sell to book and lock in 5% profit before you know it you are at 1p!

To keep away from 1p and below you need good news-flow!

Interested to see how this plays out!

Good luck

I sold at the wrong time after many years invested :-(, but at the time I felt it was for the right reasons

My concerns at the time were:-
Continuous plant delays with many complaints from the locals re permits as well as the 5tph down to 3tph!
Lost confidence and trust in Mr Rowan after time and time again asking for money and false promises
Proof of concept under mass burn testing - still not been mass burn tested or mass manufactured yet and will soon find out
Large CLN exposure and potential mass dilution
Mr Spinks selling some or all of his shares!

Now that the CLN's have been converted (and noted at an even greater dilution than I first thought due to the 3.29p heavy dilution part) this is one of my reasons for selling my shares initially now reduced, but please note CLN's conversion may not have been in total support as if the investors were ever going to see their money again it was maybe the only way to guarantee this!. Some of course may support it and you will see this by the share price movements over the next few weeks/months, some may run for the hills and take their cash off the table even below the 1p conversation price!

Personally, I believe there will be every chance to pick these shares up for less than 1p in the next 3 to 4 weeks due to the sheer numbers of new shares hitting the market - if there are very little updates or continuous news flow it may even drop to 0.75p subject to what the CLN investors and also the Primary Bid investors do in the very short term

I still very much like the concept but I don't trust the CEO and will not reinvest until he has left the company. IMHO my best way to play this is to wait for the mass testing to be confirmed and the plant is financed - as this is potentially a few years away there will be plenty of opportunities I feel to buy back in once Mr Rowan has departed

Its good that the company has no debt and even now has some assets but its just how they manage the next 6 months with news flow, hitting targets and spending that new money! Know doubt in my mind that if this does work as they claim then this will be acquired very quickly anyway probably even before 50 tph plant is built so may miss out anyway

Just my thoughts and maybe totally wrong as I was when I sold too early, but I did predict the raising of new money at 1p

Scroll down using the link below to my post 4th Jan when the share price was at 1.75p

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grsshaw/

Good Luck All, but please be careful when all those shares hit the market it will be a massive test re investor confidence

Hope you are all keeping well!

As not much is currently going on with AEX I have kept my head down for a little while but still have my relatively large holding in place. However, with the recent updates from SCIR last week it appears there may be some movement with the 25% sale and more focus on Ruvuma

It appears, from SCIR recent communications, there is multiple interest in the Ruvuma 25% (pinch of salt) and looks like some news maybe imminent. My feeling is that a deal has already been achieved or very close, which is why SCIR has updated the market with their new strategy last week (they must be confident as they won't want another deal falling through at the last minute)

I had a few thoughts on the 25% for sale

Maybe AEX could borrow money (Zubairs) to purchase the 25% SCIR stake, then use the $35m free carry to fund the first pro rata $17.5m spend for each 25% commitment. Maybe even taking say 20% and leaving SCIR with 5% with a free carry and making use of some of the value locked into their free carry. Highly unlikely though due to no current revenue to pay any interest unless the interest and capital repayment is deferred until first gas

Maybe the interested party will also want the AEX % plus the free carry element on top of SCIR stake and would then attempt to acquire AEX at the same time

Zubairs may acquire the full 25% from SCIR

WEN I guess will be one of the parties of interest but assuming they would only pay fire sale prices

I have a feeling it will be a large company who acquires SCIR stake as they can see the short and medium-term value of the large gas already in place plus possibility of additional finds.

There is very little interest in O & G investments and listed companies will find it difficult to raise any new money at this time to invest into fossil fuels regardless of what stage - exploration or appraisal. So it looks like it will only be private or very large well-funded companies who will be in a position invest or acquire in this sector. There will be limited new exploration as the money is leaving for renewables which is why I believe the O & G sector will perform pretty well over the next few decades as this lack of investment will push up the prices in medium term once this situation is processed by the markets - demand will still be high for some time yet!

Timeframe is the concern for most PI's with AEX, but for some companies 3 to 4 years is a pretty quick turnaround from initial investment so I feel AEX still has value as a company at this time for new investors

AEX is in a strong position as fully funded with commercial gas in place, with more to come hopefully, and limited risk but I am not sure at this time what value AEX brings to Zubairs being listed on the market and with them having a large % holding. There will be no value for raising funds to expand due to the out of favour situation with fossil fuels so why not buy out AEX regardless of what happens to SCIR sale

G

Never did hear back on which option they decided on - did they pay the interest payment of £1.2m or did they issue new CLN's? They did raise £1.51m in Sept so maybe it was paid from this as I don't remember seeing any news re issue of new CLN's - apart from in June for £800k but that was for increasing the production volumes at Lumberton

Still a long way to go and more dilution to take, but like you said some savings from this which works out at £52k on yearly interest payments and takes approx 4% of the outstanding CLN interest payable away

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEG/bondholders-agreement-to-revise-existing-terms-iz6xgfg3qirbj14.html

GL

Price has held up better than I anticipated TBH!

I would guess a placing at say 1p will be announced very soon - any higher price would be a very good result

Feel AEG and Mr Rowan should be taking advantage of this current situation and raise some cash of the back of a massive share price increase while they can

I would also hope to see some of the CLN notes being converted very soon, if some have not already!

Always said a placing or a cash raise is not always bad for the company if managed correctly - lets see what Mr Rowan is really capable of when it matters!

Following a successful mass testing outcome it will cost $ 50m for a plant to manufacture 50 tph - so AEG have to pay back or covert the CLN then raise a large amount of cash or loan subject to the size of the plant so a few challenges

Still interesting to see some news flow from RMDE as all has gone quiet - after all it was RDME who saved AEG by purchasing the Coalswitch licence but since then Mr Spinks has sold his stake (or most of it) in AEG - which I still don't understand and find a little baffling TBH

Still watching from the sidelines until the plant is actually up and running and the testing has been succesfully completed, but in the mean time GL to all

As of today both AEX and SCIR have a combined MC value at £27m - equivalent to just the free carry at $35m from the AEX FO - or as CrustyPete will call it $35m credit

In theory if both purchased together there is no value being attached to the combined 50% of Ruvuma Asset or AEX other assets or SCIR Helium 1 for that matter

As we know SCIR are actively trying to sell their 25% or a percentage of it at best price or no deal - but why would any interested party not just completely buy out SCIR then sell Hel 1 - Hel 1 is worth over £1.5m alone today and even if the interested party offered 100% over the current SCIR MC today they would be spending approx £14m or less than $19m for all of SCIR - they can then sell He1 - 1 for say £1.5m!

It must be very difficult for SCIR to negotiate any deal when the SP is basically valuing their 25% Ruvuma Asset at £5m ($6.5m) at current MC

Don't you just love the stock market!!!

As of today both AEX and SCIR have a combined MC value at £27m - equivalent to just the free carry at $35m from the AEX FO - or as CrustyPete will call it $35m credit

In theory if both purchased together there is no value being attached to the combined 50% of Ruvuma Asset or AEX other assets or SCIR Helium 1 for that matter

As we know SCIR are actively trying to sell their 25% or a percentage of it at best price or no deal - but why would any interested party not just completely buy out SCIR then sell Hel 1 - Hel 1 is worth over £1.5m alone today and even if the interested party offered 100% over the current SCIR MC today they would be spending approx £14m or less than $19m for all of SCIR - they can then sell He1 - 1 for say £1.5m!

It must be very difficult for SCIR to negotiate any deal when the SP is basically valuing their 25% Ruvuma Asset at £5m ($6.5m) at current MC

Don't you just love the stock market!!!

I am looking for the PSA's to be sorted, agreed and then announced by the Gov as the first part of the 2021 re-investment story.
We have been told the PSA delay was the reason for all the delays for the last few years. The slight encouraging part is that the Gov has pushed the AEX Licence and then FO through before the official PSA for all O & G companies has been announced - so highlights support

My guess is the PSA announcement is when AEX will the start with the much needed news flow and will unlock all the outstanding decisions AEX are waiting on, including the not to be mentioned again marriage :-)

Back to hibernation for me as trying to get away from all the new 'green energy' investors shouting about how massive the market potential is! Fully agree there will be many opportunities in this area but not so sure with some of the technologies!

Anyway GL all for 2021 wishing you health, wealth and happiness!

Well Done to all LTH's who stayed invested

I sold out the last of my holdings in Oct as was worried by the last very dilutive raise at 0.60p - I held a large holding for many years but was very nervous with the then news flow. I decided to sell out until the production was finally in place and then mass scale testing results was successful- I will then review my position

Warning:- Feel there are a few messages posted today that are not factually correct so please do your full own research into this share to include history, timing, cash raised and spent so far. Please take no notice of the previous share prices as these have been heavily diluted already plus more dilution to come if CLN's are converted

To confirm to clear all outstanding CLN's will mean over 800 million more shares - with 500 million at 1p the rest at over 3.295p

I feel they will raise cash very soon by a placing and will be lucky if its not at a steep discount as per the last one - I feel there are just too many CLN's (8% interest) already in circualtion to go again via this route again

Re the MC you need to look at the current MC PLUS cash borrowed via the CLN - this cash needs to be converted into shares (dilution) or the money paid back at a certain time - I will leave you all to work out that value and when it all needs to be repaid back!

Just don't want to see people losing money by jumping in too quickly and trading momentum due to recent rapid share price rise - please note, it can fall just as quickly

Good Luck to you all but please take note of all the details and ongoing commitments before you invest

Not posted for a while as nothing much to talk about at the moment but still here and staying put - the asset is massive and I am happy to wait this out regardless of where the share price is currently

Still believe Q1 2022 is a far stretched spud date (IMO, APT will plan this so it will, at the very very worst, be on time) and I feel it will spud Q4 and maybe even sooner if the gov are pro active and weather permitting. Also it will be drilled in the same location as originally planned I have reached this opinion by reading the additional info provided by SCIR in their RNS as they provided far more detail

'The joint venture will look at the option for an early mobilisation of the rig to Tanzania in order to mitigate against one of the key uncertainties on the timeline to spud'

'Scirocco fully expects a ramp up of drilling preparation activity commencing in early 2021 including the civil works for the well pad in preparation for the arrival of the rig'

I won't mention the potential marriage!!!

I feel AEX will be taken over in Q1 if the SP remains this low at between 1.8 and 2p. Take over is not want I want as I have a longer term high SP target!

I wish you all a very Happy Christmas and New year - stay safe and enjoy yourself as best you can under the circumstances :-)

Good Luck for 2021

Think the HEL 1 situation has actually put more pressure on SCIR as we know a few have sold out of here and put money in AOGL for the pure helium play. I still believe money would have been better in here, especially considering the recent drop in SCIR the over doubling of AOGL, than over there when looking at overall risk balance and having just over 4% is still a nice % in case of an initial upturn

Will be watching tomorrow with interest

GLA

Or it could be the demand for gas at this time is just not required - which is why they haven't paid up. They have enough gas supplied from WEN at the moment who is not near full capacity and they are on a take or pay % as well - the extended rain season didn't help the cause either as it was documented from both current producers that this year the gas demand dipped lower

They wouldn't want to be taking gas from both companies plus AEX (if they could supply!) and then potentially paying Wen for gas not taken subject to their take or pay element

This is my take on this and things may change quickly as soon as gas is in greater demand - understand more demand is expected early next year from WEN recent news flow - still feel the PSA announcement is one to look out for to get things moving on all fronts - hopefully before end of this year!

Not going to mention the marriage :-)

GLA

I feel your 10 year pain CrustyPete, I really do!

I am not so long in - approx 3 years but still frustrating all the same. I am still okay with my position and why I initially invested - this has not changed, only delayed somewhat!!

Re the MC calculations, I understand your logic, but I am not sure even the 2 companies involved would totally agree with your POV at this time. Agreed, there are many alternative ways to value a company which I guess helps to create a market in the first place

Top Line the common identifier with AEX and SCIR is the 25% of Ruvuma, so there will always be some form of comparison to be made due to this when reviewing both companies! Plus one with and one without a full carry being mainly the only difference at this time

Being an investor much later than your good self, I fully respect your views, opinions and experience which is good to hear and I'm glad you are still using your time to add your POV after all this time invested, of course, as well as others who provide constructive contributions also

Hopefully, we will all be put out of our misery soon with some positive news flow which will provide us with firm details rather than based on personal assumptions be them right or wrong!

Breaking off for the rest of the day - so hope you all have a good weekend!

GLA

If that was the case CrustyPete,

SCIR is currently valued at £9m - take off say £1m for HEL 1 - so their 25% is valued at £8m

AEX is valued at £23m - take off £8m same as SCIR - leaves £15m - are you saying that £15m is the value from Kiliwani N & S and Nyuni and there is no value attached for the free carry?

Both companies are just well undervalued at the moment, and this happens all the time in the markets until an update is received to either confirm the low value or re-rate (works both ways)

MC figures for both just don't make any sense following the confirmed, albeit delayed, work programme - There will be companies looking at this situation/opportunity who are more than happy to invest now with a view to a potential near term production and positive cashflow, after all most of the hard work has now been done!
If this stays this low for too long I feel AEX will be taken out in some way at the same time as SCIR %.
In this climate, Geography aside, why would any O & G companies spend and commit to new high risk drilling plays at the moment, when you can acquire proven reserves with a work programme attached for what seems like peanuts!!

O & G companies are still investing but are being drawn in by the big plays - and Ruvuma is certainly a big play!

Re any potential dilution, I keep going back to the fact that AEX didn't raise the $2m required to pay for CGT and they decided to arrange a short term loan instead. AEX even placed ALL assets on the line which of course was high risk for such a small amount! Shame about the CGT as AEX would have $2.2m extra in the bank right now!

Of course raising finance in the current climate is not ideal and very expensive so it was probably easier to ask for a short term loan from the bank of Mum and Dad :-)

I am trying to stay positive that Zubair Corp are a true partner and are and will be 100% supportive going forward and are not trying to take AEX for a ride - after all, why didn't they just say sorry no money for assistance, you're on your own when the delays continued.
Subject to the current situation with Covid around the world they also could have totally pulled out of the FO to conserve their cash which would have put AEX in serious trouble and they could have probably picked up the 75% for next to nothing by taking over AEX

I have not seen or experienced any form of sharp practice from Zubairs Corp, the opposite in fact, so I am still very much in the ongoing support will continue camp at the moment.

Anyway, more than happy we are past all the FO extensions and finally signed off - I can't image what it would be like with no FO and waiting to find out what the options would have been!!

Waiting patiently for the PSA review! Lets hope it is very soon!

GLA

Correct, which is why I included that in my post buckerfern!

I don't believe SCIR want to even stay in Tanzania, they have made it quite clear they want to exit and invest in European gas fields that are currently producing, but will not sell if a fair price is not achieved. If WEN want to access to Nytora they could just buy a % off SCIR - Two companies with two different strategies is all I see!

Also feel SCIR will sell down half or all of their Helium 1 if the share price performs when live 4th Dec

Crustypete, I don't agree with SP being relevant with regards to a merger as if all parties cannot agree the company split then it would not go ahead in the first!

Just like a Take Over approach - ultimately the SP agreed is not subject to the MC at the time but what the company is worth to the purchaser and if they can obtain board approval - however, saying that, they usually do provide a % difference increase from the previous SP highlighting the takeover price v SP before - like AA have just done!