Member Info for grsshaw

Well done on reciving the RNS. Still seems very rushed to me and TBF still not actually produced or delivered as yet but Mr Roman seems confident!!
Winds seem to be fully out of the sails at the moment due to all the mismanagement etc. and they still have that test burn that needs to be successful if delivery does take place on time and they're no excuses! Which I predict they will say they have an issue with one of the plant machinery and will need more time!

It should be over 1p on this news right now, but it's been so mismanaged that some are using it as an opportunity to exit! The time this will fly back up is on completion of the test burn and how they will joint finance the Maine 50TPH - if successful they will probably award a licence to Maine and move on.

Let's hope they do get this right - Good Luck!

I wonder what is happening on the legal process with RMDE and 2 x ex employee's

Both the 2 x disputes seem to take aim directly at Mr Rowans handling/behaviour - will be interesting to see how this plays out

If I was invested here I would want them to slow down the first order, take control of the situation and delay the burn date. If AEG sends in an inferior product, due to rushing the whole project, much more time will be lost and probably delayed by many months, plus may lose what little credibility AEG still has!!!

AEG have clearly rushed this through using a second site as well as halving the income and profit available, plus they have invested new money into a second plant (how much of your money has he spent on this new site - would be nice to know?) without proving up the concept with the initial plant which has had endless cash spent on it so far! After this, they still don't have a plant functioning (or haven't announced this yet) in order to test that the finished product is 100% as it should be and the test burn will be successful.

Maybe Mr Rowan knows if he messes this up any further, then he's gone anyway, so worth the risk for him!
Not so much for investors if it does not go well!

Good Luck to you all

What a total mess!

This is worth a read to highlight the total unprofessional standards in play here - Player has been brought in to try and salvage what he can and I have a feeling Mr Player may just walk away with the coalswitch technology and some point in the near future!
https://files.nc.gov/ncdeq/Air%20Quality/permits/active-energy/7800242-AERP-Permit-Modification-Application-7800242-21A-with-Updated-Info-and-Emails.pdf

Scroll down to the bottom to see some of the email correspondences

Please note this document link is on public view, but I'm not sure why the email addresses aren't redacted!!

So machinery that has been moved from Lumberton to Maine was the new machinery recently that was NOT approved as part of the original permit! Lumberton is now on hold subject to testing at Maine - without this Lumberton is now frozen. What are they going to do with Lumberton now as even if they obtain permits for 3 TPH - they may not obtain permits for additional TPH and Lumber also seems dead in the water (no contaminated water I hope!!)

Where has Antonio gone? Maybe he is the ex-employee who is currently whistleblowing (another ex employer who is not happy) and maybe he has taken his Lumber contacts with him!!

Just what is Mr Rowan actually doing here, each stage is and has been a total mess - It will be interesting how this plays out but he is surely hanging on with his finger tips at the moment - but I feel he should be held accountable for all of his terrible project management and misleading RNS updates!

The news they release seems to always miss any specific reason for delays and is always stepping around what is really happening

Lisa Sorg is going to a lot of effort on this and is just not letting go - just be careful, as I'm sorry to say it's getting worse as each day unfolds!

Good Luck

Good to hear you won't be selling CrustyPete and neither will I, but its good to know that someone wants a large amount of shares and will take them in one hit at one price - supports the price somewhat!

Yes, cashflow is a concern but they are in a positive place with no debt on the balance sheet and feel they have many options, even if that means coming to market. If they do come to market (and I personally don't think they will) it would mean a slight dilution of say 10% to 15% subject to number of shares and discount, but this would take out one of the biggest issues/uncertainty and probably benefit AEX share price in the very short term

I really do believe we will see some positive noises re the government change to pro business and hopefully something announced that highlights this for AEX and sorts out one of even two of the multiple outstanding awaiting approvals.

44RJ, it all assumptions but if they were to just bank all monies available now and sell all of HE1 next week they will look like Warren Buffet if HE1 first drill isn't successful - or they will look really stupid if the results are great. I don't envy them one bit TBH. After all when we as PI's buy and sell shares we usually only have ourselves as critics - image if all your friends and family and mates down the pub could watch you trade and invest and then comment on how great or how stupid you are!!!

Probably, isn't them anyway, but this is the main reason I came out of SCIR because of the guess work involved due to being invested in another listed investment. IMHO Ruvuma is the best investment for SCIR.

If it was me I would only leave the options in place and sell all the rest to bank the profit and invest in Ruvuma - after all that's what is recommend with share investing - don't be afraid to take your profits. Especially when that money can be spent on future commitments as if its lost then money will need to be raised in the market!

Greed can be a powerful magnet and personally I feel HE1 is starting to trade into 'Surely, this can't go wrong' - 'how can I lose' category. The confidence with David in the interviews is, in my opinion, far too confident and he should be a little more balanced with the actual risks involved here! I like confidence and he seems a good operator but this is investors money not his own money!!

I still hold shares in HE1 myself but they are a free carry from trading and I also booked some profit along with the trading, so I'm comfortable and in a happy place with my holding.

Good Luck All

Come on CrustPete, yes I am being positive, but I feel that mentioning going 'bust' is a little too negative!

I am being positive due to the farm-out completed, $35m free carry in place, 3D about to start, already massive asset which will hopefully be increased in Q1 next year with 2 x drilling, changes to pro business within the government and positive news re 2 x pipelines (which may be connected to AEX)

'Good' news is based on YOY cost savings, under $1m ongoing costs, reduced staff, farm out signed, farm-out monies received last year, work programme on/ahead of schedule, updates on government approvals & monies owed plus general upbeat noises about the changes in country and demand for natural gas

Cash flow being the main challenge here but do you think that after waiting over 2 years for the farm-out, with the assets that are currently in place and $35m carry with work programme agreed/started that they will just go 'bust' out of the blue! They have traded through the toughest and most challenging times to get where they are today, it can only get easier from here now!

If SCIR can raise 5m with just the Ruvuma asset then I am more than confident it will not be an issue for AEX to raise say $3m to keep the lights on for 3 years now the farm-out has completed. Plus they have zero debt to work around. I bet they could raise £1 to £2m just using Primary bid CrustyPete at a 10% discount!

I won't tell you want my 'excellent' looks like as I don't think you would be able to cope :-)

All the best

PS try and sell all your 12m plus holdings because I bet you can sell them all in one transaction - so someone wants those shares!!

I thought the same Frank, but if it is wouldn't that mean SCIR will be fully sold out of HE1 as I would assume they will sell these as soon as they can and turn into cash, otherwise why exercise them and spend cash to do so if just to sit on them!

That doesn't make any sense Seattle, to take skilled lumber operators off a profitable job to place them in a construction role! Why would you do that!

They were talking not long ago about extra shifts on lumber side and it was a big part of the forecast to profitability in the broker notes. AEG spent a lot of (raised) money to get the Lumber activity up and running with future profit forecasts in place as part of the growth strategy. There is more to this than is being explained and that is where some honesty wouldn't go a miss for a change.

I would suggest they are having difficulties with lumber supply due to higher pricing and of course they will be paying more for the lumber due to price increases. Plus more local lumber competition. So maybe more of availabilty, margin squeeze, credit and cash flow management is my guess. The big issue here is that no investor in the company should be guessing should they!

That is why they have moved location again to Maine in my opinion -FEEDSTOCK management and location re permits

Lumberton site purchase has been a total nightmare and they now have a massive site where they are continually restricted with activities - they should have built the small scale site next door when they agreed that JV - Mr Rowan?

Let's hope its tomorrow morning for the results (and they are good), as I don't like Fridays for RNS announcements and especially as it a long weekend too!!
After that we are then into June which is only 1 month left of Q2 and there were a few things mentioned in previous RNS's that was supposed to be happening in Q2 so I'm looking forward to seeing how ARA are doing re timings now they are in control

They did say 'Despite the logistical challenges presented by the pandemic, the Company is pleased to confirm that the audit process is at an advanced stage' just hope the auditors are!

Anyway, there's strong support still on the bid, which means there is a large buyer about, certainly for shares 0.7 and under

Good Luck All

Thanks diddles, my mistake re mix up with Tip top and the captain (RIP) but a little before my time!

diddles, 10 years invested - you have the right to post what and when you like - big sausage fingers or not!

So you have knowledge and history, it would be a waste not to post your opinions and input - Please keep posting when you can as I'm all for more input from investors, especially long term investors - positive or challenges

I do remember the name tiptop but never discussed anything with him unfortunately - he sounded like a proper gent

Good Luck

Below was from late Nov from SCIR - Ruvuma PSA update. Things may well have changed since November and it states looking at the 'option' for early mobilisation but hopefully at the next news update all will become much clearer!!

'With the well now confirmed it provides the basis for contracting the necessary services to execute the programme. APT will now progress with securing the Long Leads Items ("LLIs") including the well head and rig. The joint venture will look at the option for an early mobilisation of the rig to Tanzania in order to mitigate against one of the key uncertainties on the timeline to spud'

You are right to highlight caution CrustyPete - I am looking at this as a medium to long term investor and to be honest just trying to guess what's next and what might happen, it's just something to do while I'm waiting patiently. Due to the set up of the free carry, Zubairs involvement (plus cornerstone investor), the size of the Asset and currently debt free I am confident this is a good investment for the med to longer term, but will undoubtedly have a few twist and turns along the way!
I would be happier if the SP was sitting a little higher, so that hopefully any good news announced the share price will start to trade within higher SP range and gain some much needed support!
I am expecting the results will look okay due to the size of the cost cutting and income from Farm Out and will highlight they have control of costs (which I guess is all they can control at the moment!). Cash Flow is the one I'm looking out for, but I feel AEX cornerstone investor may just help out on that in the short term!
Lets see what happens I guess!

I agree, but look at HE1 progress, they seem to be flying through all the red tape and will be drilling very soon,

Just can't AEX coming out with set backs due to government delays in their next RNS with all the positive news flow being announce re pro investment!

Following on from Twitter post yesterday
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/dangote-impressed-by-dramatic-change-in-tanzania-s-business-environment-3412392

https://twitter.com/hakingowi/status/1396868948361195533?s=28

Thanks to Sadaat Umar for the link on Telegram

Very Interesting comments and didn't the owner of Dangote recently visit Ruvuma site?

Fully understand your observation CrustyPete. Lets hope I'm right and you are wrong on this point going forward!!

One thing I do know is that I can dummy sell a lot of shares in one transaction and have been able to do so for the last few weeks. So this tells me that either a MM is willing to take on a lot of shares without a home (usually too risky for them to do so), or there is a large buy order in the background. I would say its the latter and at the 0.7p or under price point!

Thank you CrustyPete, I remain positive that things will change and will change fast.

If the changes in government are about encouraging new investment to Tanzania they will need to highlight/prove this to the investment community who will be watching closely, this should be a no brainer where Ruvuma is concerned as they could advertise this as a total investment of up to $140m which is direct investment. Also looking at AEX on Kiliwani N monies owed plus approval to have a rummage around to get the gas flowing again plus the other fields as you mentioned. It would surely highlight that things have actually changed and they are doing what they said they would do!

There could be a plethora of news flow very soon - I have my fingers crossed anyway

Anyway, let's see what happens

Good Luck

Thanks Tanzania, I don't think Zubair's are going anywhere TBH. They know how big Ruvuma is, that is why they are spending more than double the work programme requirements on 3D, they want to see how big this beast really is!
I am also of the opinion that they will drill before Q1 2022 as well, but this will depend on when they have finished and analysed the 3D data. Always the optimised!!

Hopefully all will be revealed within the next few weeks

Good Luck

CrustyPete, whats your take on the recent news flow re new pipelines (Uganda/Kenya) plus the positive news re encouraging investment to Tanzania.

As you know I'm very optimistic that things have finally changed for the better and I am waiting for a good update on the work programme progress as well as positive news on progress with all the 'on hold' opportunities waiting for government approval/sign off!
What say you please?