Member Info for grsshaw

Thordon, I suggest you re-read what I said. I mentioned the city opinion, not mine!

Looking at WEN they do need to sort their strategy out though if they are to build SH value as clearly not working at present - one country with one asset I guess is the main issue and it looks like they are not looking to buy any assets out side of Tanzania so where do they go from here?

Providing a divi, and a good one at that, has not really helped by the looks of it and as I mentioned earlier if nothing is happening with that cash pile there will be pressure to return it either by increasing the divi further or a special divi!

So looking at available options in the market there only seems to be 2 companies that have any assets and we know one of those companies has a very large 'For Sale' sign clearly visible - so the games begin SCIR wants best price for the asset and potentially out of country and WEN are on the look out to buy a new asset and spend that cash before pressure starts.
2020
SP high 23p
SP low 15p
SP today 16.5p

Just hope investors didn't buy at 23p as they would need three years divi's to get back to break even at todays SP

Interesting stats below - if it drops any lower I may take a few for the SIPP :-)

MC £31m
Cash £13m
Net MC £18m!
Divi £2.5m per year

Not really sure why she included ARA/AEX/SCIR in her presentation, she could have just highlighted the 3 x producers supplying from 2 x fields! - something happening that I am sure of and have a feeling it will be pretty soon as well!

If WEN don't do something with that near $17m cash pile soon, then the institutional investors will want that returning to Shareholders. Also, having no debt is never really a major positive to the city when you are a profitable business as they feel a company should be leveraged to create greater wealth for SH's. So a merger or acquisition will be encouraged I'm sure or return the cash to SH's as special divi!
WEN looks like a well managed business but will be classed as a boring company to most in the city - nice divi though at 8%!

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6is0gst4b1jge4l/201112_Webinar.mp3?dl=0

This was link was posted on the WEN board by MICK2020 - it was from the WEN webinar yesterday

Only has audio no video unfortunately

Malbrad, one thing to point out is that AEX currently has no debt. This situation provides plenty of options to raise cash/loan against assets if required and without any dilution to SH's - other way CLN's also an option! Money markets not great so would probably be an expensive option

The other reason why a placing may not be required is this 'marriage' situation!

So raising cash via a placing is not the only option available here but image where the SP would be if they had say £2 to £3m of debt on the books!

Also, looking at the way this was handled over the last 12 months AEX went down the loan/advance route and could have easily placed new shares at anytime, so maybe they are not big fans of dilution - I hope not anyway!

GL

27th April – Licence Extension Granted

15th May – RA Interview where he mentions re CH1 drilling well situation
"Lots of action been going on with ARA/AEX and working on planning for months
ARA very pro active with procurement/policies/processes all approved by TPDC/PURA
Expect them to place orders for long lead items, if they have not already done so, fairly soon for pipes/well heads"

30th Sept – Extension of FO with deadline of 15th Oct

12th Oct – FO Government Approval

23rd Oct – Completion of the FO

Using this information my assumption is that 15th Oct was a key date in the planning process and this was the date requirement of the release of shipping the long lead-time items process. If not approved by that date then they would not have shipped the items as target dates would have been missed in connection with the license extension and too much time from extension to FO approval had already passed by - nearly 6 months in total!

I am therefore going to assume that Drilling will spud late Dec/early Jan as from the date 12th Oct FO approval date this provides 12 weeks until end of Dec or least in the very worst case all rig components in place to start construction

If nothing had been ordered before 12th Oct approval then RA was telling porkies in his interview mid May. I have no reason to believe this to be the case as all delays have been down to government approval/sign off. AEX/ARA could not have been any more patient, supportive and trusting in this whole process - just paying the GCT before FO approval highlights the trust in place!

Re Seismic, I am going for Mid December start on this

These are my assumptions only so no investment advice - I have not been right so far re the price of AEX - I had down the SP at 1.65pish at this stage moving to 2p, so I may be way off the mark with my assumptions - but worth having a guess at this stage while waiting for news updates!

As I said before I may trade these in the short term to try and make a few Bob, I already have plenty of shares as an investment, but these shares won't come into play until my target price has been achieved!

More patience required then...

GLA and please DYOR

I haven't sold - I am just observing and trying to learn a few things - I invested at 1.5p a little while ago - just looking at the bigger picture and too bothered re the daily share price moves TBH

Understand your bullish points, and PL must be very frustrated by these events as we all are. But as they say we are where we are!

Not sure I agree re the 1.5p but lets see how this maps out

In this market blackgold - the money won't come back in until a day before drilling results due and then the SP will shoot up 600% in one hour and sold into on the same day! Then move on to the next big thing - reminds of the carton characters the Ant Hill Mob all chasing each other around!

Patience is really boring but...

NicetoMichu, maybe the insurance for them is that the shares were transferred at 1.10p

PL even said there are buyers wanting in to take all shares off them - the whole situation seems a little strange to me anyway with PL putting the message out re MM's behaviour!

You may be right on TR1 delay reasons but I do believe that IFC have sold out completely as they confirmed this in their Holding RNS!

Missing my point comeonvog,

My point is that JBER still seem to have shares to sell - if they are not selling any they will move the price down until they make a market - so my point is stop buying now to hopefully obtain a far better buy price later

GL

JBER are still on the ASK and have been all week - they are fully controlling what price you are paying for this share at the moment

My thinking is all the IFC shareholding as been transferred over to the JBER so they can dump their total shareholding down to 0, but I feel JBER are still dripping them into the market and trying to get the best sell price possible IMO

If I am right, rather than buying, you may be better to wait it out and see how low JBER/IFC has agreed to go down to! Transaction/transfer price as I recall was at 1.10p so I guess no lower than that, any higher, and thats a bonus for both. Maybe totally wrong on this but if all sold on no-one appears to have come forward with a 'Holdings in company' update!

Might be worth asking PL the question following on from his message last week how he see's it

GLA

I don't read it that way CrustyPete - where does it mention that these funds can only be used for Ntorya? I have a had a quick look but cannot find anything?

Also, I do remember seeing a comment from RA about these funds either as a loan/advance supporting AEX until May 2021

So my take is they have $1.97 available (maybe still being paid over the next 4 months) but need to deduct any interest accrued from the advance from 30/09 to the FO date 23rd Oct and any G & A costs since then and ongoing! I believe they have approx $1.5m in the bank or still to be paid over next few months! Are you saying they have spent $1.97m since 30th Sept?

See below from 30/09 RNS

Separately, again at Aminex's request, ARA has agreed an Additional Funding Agreement ("AFA") whereby ARA will advance up to US$1.97 million to the Company that would otherwise have been payable to the Company as interim period costs under the Farm-Out Agreement. Such advance will allow the Company to consider and pursue alternative options for the Group and its assets. Such advance from ARA will be interest-bearing at a rate of 13.77% per annum and will be repayable upon written demand by ARA.

Steve58, seems to be still some selling here and reinvesting in AOGL again - was that you a little earlier selling 250k by any chance? If so, GL to you I hope it works for you

That said I personally would be careful on the valuation as the raise for the £5m has been a large dilution for original investors. Good News was that it was oversubscribed but at the price paid you can understand maybe and good news they now have the cash to carry out drilling. I will watch this to see how this trades but if AOGL increases too much investing in this share will probably work out a wiser move when you look at the assets in place and the current MC

Looking closer at values - at current price SCIR MC is just over £9.5m and using AOGL as a benchmark their new price for Helium One should be double at least at now £1.2m - so Ruvuma/Kili is now valued at £8.3m or $10.8m - crazy times we live in!

Thought they had approx $328k per month coming in for a total of 6 months CrustyPete - $1.97m interim period costs?

Not a massive amount to work with I know, but as costs are drastically reduced and no commitments at this time, they have a bit of time on their hands to work out a solution for the next stages of development or maybe soon to be announced marriage!!

I like the mostly risk off situation here now and hope we have some positive news very soon (as you know I still believe a buy out is a possibility here and the cheaper this becomes the more likely this may happen) Even Tanzania, as a country to invest in, seems to be de-risked with many investors jumping into Helium One!

Still not seen anything from Tanzania news mentioning the FO has been signed and agreed (Helium One has been mentioned as few times!) Have they upset the gov by pushing for the FO or are they waiting for the work programme to be announced and total spend details etc..

Seems even less patience in the markets at the moment, it's all about todays/tomorrows % performance - then off to bigger and better things chasing gains - which usually ends in tears!

Seems this change in general market sentiment on announcement of a potential Vaccine as created a short sellers nightmare. But just wait and see how they then reposition the same companies with new shorts very soon - watching carefully and hopefully still learning but relatively happy to stay out of the way from the main markets and watch from the sidelines, for now anyway!

GLA

I understand that SCIR will have 4.6% of the total e.g valued at £605,000 includes £6m, £5m (raise)and Attis at £1.76m - £12.7m in total - out be a few £ as the the total would need to be £13.1m total to work out at 4.6%

I made a call and all sorted and over subscribed and is just subject to standard sign off

Hope this helps

Why not make the call to the brokers Steve58?

Surely if there are still shares left at the offer price you can just sell you AOGL shares and use the proceeds - you may lose a little re spread and costs but you may just obtain additional shares for the same cash value!

Good Luck

Current MC at 0.95p to sell is £36.5m - a bit lower at time of writing

Free Carry @ $35m plus Ruvuma PSA at conservative $20m (now FO is complete) - $55m converted is £42m

Leaves a difference at £5.5m currently and not taking into account monies owed, Kili N Licence and Kill S and Nyuni prospects

Taking onto account that Zubairs already own 29% of AEX - I really don't understand why they don't now take over the company as AEX is in good shape re lower personnel, costs under control and very limited outstanding share options (as they were all cancelled!)

At 3p a share (so a nice premium from today's price) the MC would be £115.5m - meaning a total outlay cost £77m after taking account of their % ownership

They will then have 75% of Ruvuma with no costs on the free carry to pay back if not spent, as well as the other assets/prospects etc..

At the moment the markets are not in a good place, especially when looking at any type of fossil fuels (although gas is the clear fuel of choice out of a bad bunch!) and I don't see any benefit of having a stake in a London listed O & G company at this time - why not just buy out AEX? If things change in the future re the market I would guess they could always look for any other O & G companies out there in need of funding - after all they certainly don't need a market listing to raise any finance do they!

I feel something is happening behind the scenes with AEX and SCIR and I am looking forward to finding out soon

GLA

JBER seemed to be in full control of yesterdays rise and still are on level 2

At the time of writing this JBER are sat at 1.55, the next 4 x MM's at 1.7 - so they are in full control of what price investors are buying at currently

Seems to me that JBER still have shares to sell - just not sure how many to fully clear!

The reported transactions yesterday are below and as at 20th Oct IFC had 98,097,848

03-Nov-20 15:09:50 1.10 91,847,848
03-Nov-20 15:09:14 1.10 91,847,848

Interesting games, watching with interest on how this plays out in the short term

GLA

What are the chances of the ONE-Dyas deal being back on the table? They commented in an RNS that the deal was worked on for 12 months!

Gas prices are in a far better shape at the moment but not sure on the current markets re the raising of finance. However, if there is a full sale or part sale of some or all of the Tanzania assets then that would make the deal possible

Probably way off the mark but if those assets are still for sale you never know!

GLA

I had already worked out this info back in June hku821 - see below what I have down as outstanding - Total will be 2,405,972,871 shares if all CLN's are converted - hope this helps - GLA

317,194,628 Series A 10,451,563 @ 3.295
418,362,600 Series B @ 418,362,600 @ 0.01
51,212,800 CLN @ 579,981,500
80,000,000 22nd June 2020 8% - raise £800k