The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Thanks HFB useful data.
If I am reading the data for the Cove deal correctly as $1.25 bn for 5Tcf of gas then that works back to;
179Bcf/5Tcf=0.0358 x $1.25Bn=$44,750,000 for a comparable value for Victory ie about the same as my earlier calc.
Lets hope the subsequent gas price increase is taken into account.
GLA
Obviously, we cant yet know the value to RBD of the proposed sale of Victory but here's my take.
Based on the recent offer from Kristos to buy neighbouring assets in the adjacent Greater Laggan Area gas fields from Total.
https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/kistos-announces-greater-laggan-area-acquisition-and-operational-and-financial-update-185673
In this asset purchase nestling among the gas producing assets is an addition deal for 25% of the as yet, undeveloped Benriach prospect.
For the Benriach prospect, assuming its developed, Kristos will pay $ 0.25 per MMBtu of net reserves - currently considered to be 638 Bcf gas.
So, it seems Kristos will buy 25% of 638Bcf = 159.5 Bcf @ $ 0.25 per MMBtu
Converting MMBTU to Bcf- $250,000 = 1Bcf gas . ( 1Million MMBtu= 1Bcf)
Victory reserves are quoted as 179bcf so using the above comparison the offer for Victory may be;
179 bcf x $250,000 = $44,750,00 or about £35,000,000. Of which 50% to RBd = £15,000,000.
I am aware that includes loads of assumptions and ignores many aspects, but at least it has a basis in reality.
Over to you.
Best Regards
Using the same metrics for Victory
I am a long term holder with both RBD and UJO. I intended to reduce a substantial holding in both during EWT but find the company now have a communication credibility problem. There are only so many times you can publish timelines and state imminent events and not meet them. With this RNS the EWT has gone from imminent to months away. I appreciate RBD are not the operator and ultimately rely on Rathlin, but there only so many times you can over promise and under deliver and retain credibility. One too many for me.
GLA
Permeability is a key metric, measured in Darcys and relates to how easily a fluid passes through the reservoir. Permeability is a major factor effecting the flow rate of the well. Lab tests on the core samples taken from both wells will have provided this data but as far as I am aware this has not been provided to investors. The fractures detailed in the core samples from recent presentations would provide secondary permeability, but again no imperical data. The key question is why?
GLA
Reabold/Union Jack- 50 Shades of black.
The bears of West Newton have well and truly been burnt off this morning as the partners announce a ‘further significant HydroCarbon discovery ‘ with the B-1Z well coming in big time.
Every way you look at it the discovery is massively positive and could be the largest UK onshore discovery since 1973. The well encountered a gross 62m HydroCarbon bearing reservoir in the primary Kirkham Abbey target formation. Indeed, the overall column is estimated to be ‘at least 118m significantly exceeding previous observations ‘.
The key takeaway from this is that in my own view, the whole prospect has been de-risked by what is now effectively a 2.5km step-out. The second section looks like the first and has ‘evidence of good reservoir continuity’ so as it looks the same on the seismic it is one continuous reservoir.
This is backed up by the porosity numbers which at over 14% measured from log data across sections of the interval ‘comparing favourably’ with the A-2 well. In addition with no oil-water contact encountered in 118m this is unique.
I intend to write up more on both companies after I have had more detailed conversations with both managements in due course but this is a monster discovery by any measurement and it would probably be a commercial discovery offshore.
With RBD up only 20% and UJO 9% as I speak I think it is fair to say that the shares have by no means taken this find into account and they should both add meaningful market cap increases as bigger players get out the calculators…
https://www.*************.com/views/50087/deltic-energy-crap-offer-from-reabold-resources-sod-off