Member Info for GreggsStottie

Awaiting:
Interims (This week)
Signing of ROSGEO licence ownership
JORK
Potential bid for "substantially all" of our assets.

Exciting times!!!

Tilly - Also hoping for some of this to land in the next few days...

...yes, but the company have only told us what they want us/suitors to hear. Everything, is playing out and I still have an inclining that there will be several twists and turns as suitors potentially come back into the fray.

If we are playing hardball then it suits the negotiation to say we are only selling a bit, as we think you aren't offering enough value for the rest. We know we have lots of assets people want, and we can mine them for the most efficient price in the world. We think these assets will increase in value over the coming decades - as will the likely amount taken from the ground. We have massive support from huge investment houses who know how to swing a deal.

So, I am not ruling anything out, until I see that offer.

I accept that we only have the official line of comms from the company, just some scraps really imo. What is going on in the background is anyone's guess - I am a negotiator as part of my career, and I know that you don't always tell the whole truth. You intimate and use data to suit your argument. I do hope Christian writes a book on how the deal moved through and the twists and turns. I think it would be an interesting read!

GL all, whilst nail biting at times, it is also an exciting share to be in.

I really liked this quote from the weekend...“Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway!” Earl Nightingale.....hoping we are towards the end frame of the passing of time for the EUA deal!

To be fair Mac, prior to the ROSGEO joint venture and PGM prices rocketing a full sales could have been very possible. To some extent it still is, but as you say a partial sale, conglomerate of companies etc are more likely options.

I still think this will get to c.£1.35. I dearly hope this is the case with a large dividend and we keep our shares. That will set many of us up for life.

If we were sold out for £1.35 I would still be happy (Even happier at £2.50). That's some re-rate from the 1p-4 (even better for some) days...yes, the former it is likely undervaluing the sum of the parts, however the buyer needs a ROI, and they are always greedy.

I imagine that Dimitry would be happy taking £1bn for his shares...."Russian Billionaire" is a great status to have...up there with David Beckham! Even "out riching" the queen at c.£600m.

Time will tell....

Yes, but isn't the Eussian standard more conservative?

If jork resources are 70% higher than 104m oz, then there is no reason for the sp to hit 55p but we need tk get above 25p and 30p and 35p 1st. Here's hoping for a good upswing on Monday followed by a jork
resource update on Tuesday and sale of asset RNS on Friday.

Then 12 weeks to sign off with shareholders and all done for late December...

I can dream...

The sp has moved from 35p to £1.62ish in the last 18 months...so a good performance. In the last year, its been a roller coaster...however I still think that with approvals we can get to between £10 and £30 per share....depends on how far we get on our journey, prior to takeover!

I suspect when we move to the next phase in the US there will be a rerate to £7.50 to £10...once production is up scaled and more approvals are achieved, the growth will come.

Frustrating as it is, the company is doing all the right tings to add long term value.

All the best folks...

That is based purely on year 1 sales...does not include COPD potential which in itself is valued at or around £5 per share.

The multiplier is also potentially low. Could be as high as 15x multiplier.

I do think that £25 is entirely possible with a fair wind. Just imagine approval in UK, FDA, Europe for Covid. Just imaginwe when capacity increases from 1m doses per month...

Lots of exciting potential to come......

The key thing is that we held above 35p. This means the 57-65p trendline is on.

Have a great weekend all - its been very enjoyable to see how this last few weeks has panned out. Certainly more interesting than the FTSE100.....

Fingers crossed for a late Friday or Monday morning RNS...

Enrico...don't worry about it. The EUA boys are a great crowd, if not a bit protective. I have been in SNG for well over 1 year and its doing nicely. Wish I had the money at the time we dropped twice into the 80's, I did manage 1 hit at those levels.

I am planning to add 20% to my SNG holding, but waiting for EUA to move 1st. It would be great to get a double whammy on both EUA and SNG in short shrift.....we can dream!

We should hear something in the next 1-3 months from all the activity the SNG BOD have been driving forward. It is an exciting share to be in and has 10 bags potential from here IMO....

Most people won't have the option to max out their ISA, there are many very small private investors....but those that are lucky enough to be able to max out an ISA will certainly have to cough up the tax.

IMO It would be foolish not to move shares into an ISA if you have the option.

Rossy - assuming your investment went up from £20k to £100k and you selll your shares the £100k would be sitting in your isa account. You can reinvest as much or as little as you want. When you flip into the next year you will be able to add up to £20k cash to invest so could have £120k in the ISA in this case, assuming you did nothing with the £100k already there.

You do need to be mindful of the £85k max govt fsa insurance. If you go above £85k cash, that is at risk if the platform went bust. If you invest in shares on a platform and that goes bust, you will still own the shares, but it may take time to get these transferred to a new provider.

You can also withdraw the £100k from your ISA and put it in your bank account...without paying any tax.

I have managed to move all my EUA shares into my ISA now so if a dividend is paid out I will pay no tax whatsoever...

We think that we may get a divided of c.70p (possible, but based on what we have in the ground this is not insurmountable).

If you don't have an ISA you should consider it in this case:

Do nothing - 60000 shares at 70p = 42,000
No tax on 1st £2k
Higher rate tax payers pay 32.5% on anything over £2k.
32.5% on 40k = £13k of tax
£42k-£13k = £29k take home....

ISA allowance £20k
Assume 60000 shares BED and ISA
Sell at 32 and buy at c.32p (approx) will probably lose c.200 shares (c.£64)

Now you have 59800 shares in your new ISA valued @ £19,136 (@32p)
Dividend comes and you get £42k NO TAX

If you have shares outside an ISA you still have time to do it before a payout, but you would need to do this before the XD date for payment. i.e. when the company recognise and RNS the cut off date.

In this case £64 cost could save £13k in Tax = no brainer. Interactive Investor did this within 24 hours of my request.

If you are a lower rate tax payer then the rate is 7.5% tax, but that is still £k in the above case (much cheaper than the £64 cost to do the transaction).
As always, take advice from an expert.

All the best....

To be fair the market shenanigans have allowed me to add considerably to my holding, as have many others. Can't believe I was adding just a week ago at 16p. Seems very cheap now doesn't it!!!

Just a week or so to hear how our investment is progressing. Are we coming into port or will there be a wait for the golden shores???

Starting to feel good this investing malarkey. It's taken 15 years to get to this point and a bit of luck, dogged belief in the investment, solid camaraderie from the lse chat room and an excellent bod, CULMINATING to the point we are currently sat at.

It was awesome to see the sp drive on to 36p this afternoon, as it was to read the ACF equity research report today. If this goes for £2.50 I suspect many here will have a lifechanging event...fingers crossed.

Agree that I don't care a jot what people hold, whether that be 1000 or 100m shares, however I do care about fellow investors as we have the same aim.

The camaraderie on this board is awesome and a lot to be said for selflessness. Covid has taught us that we sometimes need to think of others, not just ourselves.

Pretty sad world if we don't care about others...

If there's been a lot of development work and resource levels are increased sizeably and suddenly the sp relates to reflect that. Then the divi will be lower then the sp. Its about perspective and what the value will be given the increased cost of PGM's over the next 10 years not just here and now...

Funny enough, EUA are about to increase their resource level within 2 weeks, so perhaps not as mad as you might think...

I am holding strong and await the likely rerate in the next few months.

I took £1500 a course as a 75% margin (vrs expected £2000 per course invoice value), and 75000 courses per month.

Even taking that into account ££30 plus is possible.

Sure, there ard lots of factors to take into account but I am confident we will be multiples of thd current sp in 1 years time, hopefully sooner.

ATB holders.

Bear in mind that my figs only take into account covid Sales. COPD sales were valued at around £5 per share alone...

Mac, we know from discussions last year (RM on sharesoc) that they were targeting 100,000 treatment courses a month. So, not getting carried away, just using my research to value the potential.

Hope this clarifies why I stated per month.

Sorry, meant p3 trials, blame the fat fingers...

Think about this:
C.1m doses equates to c.75000 treatments per month worldwide.
We think the course cost is c.£2k (let's assume £1500)
75000 x £1500 = £112m a month
12 months = £1.35bn.

201.34m shares in issue...

PE of 15 = £20bn (£99 per share)
PE10 = £13.5bn (£66 per share(
PE 5 = £6.75bn (£33 per share)

We know that ly a report stated £50, prior to the issue of additional shares....for me £40 coukd be possible...but needs the company to take it all the way before being bought out.

How long before a big pharma gets on board??? That's the big question. I can see this getting to £15 once p4 trials are notified...obviously needs to be good news..

If we can also up the quantity of doses then the value increases assuming stockpiling etc.

All the best holders.

The bod talked about 100000 treatment courses a month so that's not far off...

The video really does a great job of simplifying the progress to date.

All the best