Member Info for GreggsStottie

I do understand that if is HARD not to hold when a sp is flat. It is frustrating.

I thought about selling last week at 61p. Maybe i should have traded. But, I reworked the numbers and regained my mojo for ODX.

We are going to have to wait for big news. But, i believe it will come.

Purely sentiment. The big RNS hasnt yet hit the floor. When it does, or in the weeks leading up to this, we will rerate. It was above £1.10 when the 1m contract came in...imagine when its tens of millions and we are producing 50% of that...

Why was SNG below 80p 4 weeks ago? It is now at £1.60+??? Crazy low valuation and now certainty not a true reflaction of the opportunity. This is where the patient investor can win.

Tell me computor 909...why did it go to over £1? I am happy to wait and see. Are you shorting by any chance? If you are trying to trick people out of their investment its a bit harsh...you have given no real ratianale to your posts other than you think its a dog. I have tried to give some thought as to why I think that is incorrect.

All the best holders...

2m tests a week planned ftom April.
Assume average selling price of £3. Mologic will have a higher price than RTC...so an acerage.
Assume 75% margin
180m shares.
I am excluding any food doctor, Aids sales which are higher price and margin..

£3 x 2m x 52 weeks = £312m
75% margin = £234m profit.

Just based on the profit in 1 year, this is worth £234m/180m shares......£1.30...

What sort of multiplier do we choose?

5x is low ball
8x is ok
11x would be strong...

Now, I am not saying this will happen overnight or in a few weeks. However, when I run the numbers at even half of the above profit levels and a lowball 5x multiplier I get £3.25 a share.

If anyone says this company is rubbish, or not going anywhere. Show me why you think that. Prove why Colins plan to get to 2m a week won't deliver.

Business works on certainty, as do markets. Thats why I think we are so undervalued. We have no confirmed massive sales. But, they are coming. I would not double staffing unless it was NAILED ON. If I did and and there were no sales contracts then I would expect to be fired.

I look forward to developments over the coming months.

All the best...I hope this settles some nerves for those doubting of being swayed by some poor deramping.

All the best.

SNG could just sell the rights to the Covid application of the drug to a large pharma for £20 plus. Then take the COPD application to market themselves.

So many options. When you have been working on something for 15 years you don't just give it away. You expect a serious premium which will result in an immediate risk free lift in sales and profit for a major pharma co.

At the end of the day, when P3 results are in and assuming they are good, SNG have lots of commercial options.

1. Home trial complete
2. 1st P3 dose in USA other countries?
3. Home trial results (perhaps in Feb)?
4. P3 interim results
5. Production/Capacity updates - 100,000 treatments per month...and or plan for increased capacity?
6. FDA fast track approval on interim results (if as good as we think it will be).
7. EUA/MRHA approval
8. Interest from Major Pharma approach? (Summer 2021?)
9. Full P3 results including long covid analysis (June?)

Feel free to add to these...
The next 6 months is going to be very interesting....

RNS In Abandonment of LVG aquisition...I have to say, I am glad to be honest.

The cost of a bed is massive, reducing the need for patients to go to hospital is huge. £2k is cheap.

Once proven to work in P3, the world will scramble to buy this!!!

...plus we are looking to increase production above 100000 treatments a month. The mind boggles about the value of SNG. Thats excluding the COPD element..

The realisation of the millions of people this will help across the globe does add a great feeling to the investment.

GL all.

Yes, you are right....unfortunately, but I don't have a crystal ball and I work full time, so cant watch the markets all the time.. I did pile in again at 80p and have made more than I thought possible. Pharma co's do work differently and I did not see 80p coming, especially when SNG raised £87m at £1.75 just 2 weeks earlier.

Well done to those that have sold on spikes, I do need to get trading more.

The P3 SNG-001 trial is starting at any time very soon and should be completed by March/April. If interim results are still strong I suspect we may get emergency use approval from the FDA. This will propel us up towards £10....imo.

COPD treatment is waiting in the wings for P3 trials and will be developed once SNG001 is up and running.

Once we get to this stage I think the big pharma's will be all over us like a rash. I hope we hold out until orders are raised and we have an income. This will drive the purchase price up.

It is likely we will be sold but where that will get us to on SP is anyone's guess and depends on timing.

Plus...RM is looking at scaling up production ahead of the 100,000 treatments per month. If we get to 250,000 treatments and stockpiling, and COPD value, Plus Pharmxis 15% share of Lox, etc etc etc.

£20 to £35 per share does not seem so impossible....

I am luck to have bought in at 35p plus averaging up so along with lots of long termers we will be rewarded in time!

Just needs patience...and a bit of luck with P3 trials.

Its all coming together.

100m tests required and ODX have at least 25% of that...

Funny that our target capacity is 2m per week from April. Thats over 50% of the requirenent. Awesome to think whats around the corner...big rerate coming imo.

The facts speak for themselves. Tick Tock...

I think Synterferon won last year!

I have emailed the company to see if there is a delay in DFS final approval....I will no doubt get a broad response as usual!!

Has anyone else contacted the company and received a response?

....was this the notification of the P3 trial start and 1st dose?

In this case our next P3 update will be 600 plus patients dosed? Potentially a mid update?) We could therefore be waiting until March for this update? Alternatively, initial data may prove irrevocably fantastic and we get Emergency Use approval by the FDA...that's the curve ball we all want! That could come any time in Feb...

If no FDA emergency use approval, the final Home Trial patient dosing will be the next piece of news due any time between now and Feb. I would like some interim data or update on this.....more out of interest than anything else....

Good Luck all, the stars are starting to align!

Lots of pieces of the jigsaw to come and exciting times. It was very kind of the market makers to give us another buying opportunity below £1. Nice to double our money in just a few weeks!

I topped up on ODX at 46p...you will be lucky to get in at 70p on Tuesday...

To be fair, mosf sensible investors topped up on SNG at 80p, so slight movements matter not. Most ars wsiting for Q2 and a sp above 4.50.

Plenty of dosh to be made in this market....

SCINV I believe a margin of 75% is expected....this will grow as volume grows and efficiencies improve further and as fixed costs are amortised across a bigger turnover.

£2500 is the invoice price and not the margin.

With the recent dilution COPD is worth £3.75 alone. The £5 target was on a broker note, not my target.

I think there is enough in the Covid 19 bucket to sustain a solid share price.

200m shares in issue...
100,000 treatments per month at £2500 per treatment course.
Monthly sales £250m per month (75% profit margin = £142m profit per month).
Annual sales of £3bn (75% profit margin = £1.7bn).
On 5 x earnings (which is lowball imo) that gets us to c.£8.5bn (assume £2000 per treatment course and you get £6.8bn)

So, my conclusion is that an offer of £7bn is not that difficult to achieve in the medium term...assuming solid P3 trial results, FDA approval, followed by UK MRHA approval...then anywhere else that wants to approve/out licensing).

Imagine:
1. If capacity doubled to 200,000 treatment courses....still plenty of money to be made for big pharma
2. COPD is not included in these calculations (worth £5 per share).
3. SNG will have the money to fund COPD P3 trials without further dilution

I appreciate that these heady heights are difficult to fathom....but there is a lot of water to tread before we get to these levels. Big pharma want treatments that are ready to go and add instant value. They don't want expensive trials and the work and energy involved to get products to market. They are willing to pay big money for the pleasure of this.

Lets get to £2.00, then 4.50, then £10.00 before we get carried away with the big money. But, it is possible in my opinion.

If we get there, I will be retiring before 50....so good luck everyone.

Someone said they contacted Keith this week and he said that this was still the case. EUA year end is 31st Dec so I suspect unless they want to give us an Xmas gift, then we will have to wait until next Thursday at the latest.