Member Info for GreggsStottie

Henk...its already a £126m mkt cap company.

They are already producing and no doubt selling stock via the RTC etc. We just haven't been told yet!

The company also have agreements with banks if they need money for cashflow....its in the annual report. I suspect banks will be crawling over themselves to fund expansion, because ODX are a sleeping giant.

Ref The Parliament link wish me luck - thank you for sharing. I really like the comment "if the testing industry are a continuing or permanent feature of our future needs........"

We know its coming, ODX will even be able to afford some new blinds!

Tax free in an ISA wrapper...

What was the SNG webinar like?
Very good, informative - some technical issues (zoom glitches). It gave a good insight into how and why the product works and results of research. It did not give forward looking info.....so hopefully this means Abingdon will have all the info out in the open by 12th Feb!!! We can live in hope.....!!! You have the opportunity to ask questions ahead of the webinar and during.

Regulator...you don't need to be a member (paying) to view the webinar LIVE. You do need to be a paying member to watch it back + their back catalogue of webinars etc.

I watched one with SNG in November and it was free. Its a charity so they do ask for people to join to support the cause!

That makes sense...perhaps Friday it is then...??? They will have had a few more weeks to onboard companies etc.

However, I still cant understand how EUA was in suspension for so long in that case. The reason for this was never disclosed by the FSA or EUA. We will see...

On a separate note, I see Sharia banks are offering the best rates of interest on savings at 0.85%...bodes well for a Sharia compliant platform to loan a load of cash out for stock..... #I-see-no-debt-honest-gov

...the placing at £1.75 was about right!!!

Managed to average down after that painful few weeks/months, but just goes to show that those who research a company, work out where it is going, sticks with it and tops up when they can have the opportunity to make great returns. Far better than the banks, premium bonds etc etc.

We are on the cusp of something special...yes we need P3 trials to go well, but the writing is on the wall. The experience and quality of the bod/founders are playing this the right way and it shows clearly. You dont get the FDA on side without the right positioning, data and know how.

Those that remember the ShareSoc webinar will recall how well RM presented (despite the glitches) and what was coming. The share price at the time was disappointing but we are back up....calm before the storm I think.

All the best holders...

I think they are delaying the relist deliberately in order to build momentum in the number of companies onboarded.

This is the catalyst they need to drive the business forward and the sp.

I can see this dragging on for a few more weeks. But, we could get a nice surprise. EUA was much longer than anyone thought!

Just need to be patient, it will be what it will be.

lol....samsung galaxy phones have rubbish predictive text.. apologies!!!

SHAREINTHIS

You need to go to the conparison tab and add NCYT. I coildnt get it to include the comparitor. Very easy yo add it. You will see the gap...quite considerable.

Take the staeting point of ODX and then pro rate the NCYT sp up.

Generally jnteresting as a comparator and may hell as a guide...i still think the £2.50 mark is a starting point.

GL holders

If you look at the NCYT chart on HL and compare ODX vrs NCYT to get a similar uplift in performance we could achieve a SP of £2.70.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/o/omega-diagnostics-group-plc-ord-4p/share-charts

I think that this is a start point for us and c.£2.50 is likely in the short term....but lots more potential given potential sales and upweighted capacities.

None taken StarBright....I certainly didn't mean to be pointy, if that's how it came across. I think I have tried to pose a sensible outlook sp valuation based on what I have managed to find in my research. Back of fag packet is exactly what it is...but without actual figures (including costs and tax etc) I don't have anything else to hang my hat on.

I can't see this being below £2.50 in H1, and could do better. There is just so much news to come....

Agree, but I used a 5x to 8 x multiplier, when pharma benchmark valuations are up to 14x P/E. So, I err'd on the side of caution to cover tax/other costs. But you are correct ref these costs.

So, taking a lower mutiple on a 50% margin, on a lower profit per test we still get to £4.28 to £6.85.

That's on 2m tests....when will we get notification that this is being increased further due to UK demand?

I have used a pharma benchmark for GP (not net profit). I have also used an average of £3 sell price which is £2.25 gp per test. This is vrs £2.50 on the mologic one.

We need to see the annual report to give us a better understanding of profitability, however...even if it is 50% on the volume at £3.0-0 per test its 2/3rds of the £234m annual profit...... c.£155m...on a 5 x multiplier £4.28 or an 8 x multiplier 1.24bn or £6.85....

The key point here is that we are well undervalued looking into the future.

If we manage to ramp up production again from 2m + then the fixed costs will improve margin % further...

Exciting times.

Thanks MB....this is why the boards are so good....I learnt something today.

We know that a rerate is coming so makes perfect sense.

All my shares are in an ISA so pleased to profit without any tax.....those that have shares outside an ISA and have not used their ISA allowance should bed and isa.

Interesting to see these vest 9th Feb.....just in time for the 15th!!!

I agree with most that selling now is crazy. So much news to come and the next 6 months should see us rerate big style. Once contracts are known there is no reason why we could not be up at £5 a share. If we are pulling in £200m profit a year on 181m shares and a sensible multiplier of 8....could be upwards of £8 plus.

I understand that this constitutes a ramp, however the figures do stack up.

2m tests per week...
£3 per test = £6m x 52 weeks = £312m.
75% profit per test = £234m (£3 * 75% [£2.25] x 104m tests)

5 x multiplier = £1.17bn/181m = £6.46
6 x multiplier = £1.404bn/181m = £7.75
7 x multiplier = £1,638bn/181m = £9.05
8 x multiplier = £1,872bn/181m = £10.34

At the current SP there is limited downside, but bags of upside.

It looks like Monday 15th Feb is going to be a pivotal date in notifications etc.

O a srperatd note, did anyone notice that Abingdon are presenting on Sharesoc?
Company Webinar with Abingdon Health (ABDX) - 10 Feb 2021 4:30pm

Chris Yates, CEO, will present. Abingdon Health is a world leading developer and manufacturer of high-quality rapid tests across all industry sectors, including healthcare and COVID-19. Abingdon has a global customer base and takes projects from initial concept through to routine and large-scale manufacturing and has also developed and marketed its own labelled tests. The Company offers product development, regulatory support, technology transfer and manufacturing services for customers looking to develop new assays or transfer existing laboratory-based assays to a lateral flow format. 

Looks,like an interesting and prkfitable month ahead!!!

I believe there is a 10 day cooling off period after a government contract is closed/agreed. This is to field any complaints from current suppliers etc...So I think we could hear tomorrow or next Tuesday.....lets hope so!

You could always email the company and ask if the comments are true...a good bit of research is easy if you make the effort.

Go on Magpie..send them an email and report back....

On that basis everyone's opinion should be taken with a pinch of salt, including yours Magpie21, and mine for that matter.

I try and take everyone's opinion and gather these with official RNS's/tweets etc....a balanced approach. I also try and back it up with some idea of valuation/likelihood of success/failure etc...

My agenda is for the business to be valued many multiples above todays Mkt Cap, and I think the market has currently got this wrong...... the market wants to see specific orders...which I believe will come. With so much news and capacity to come over the next few months I can't see the sp being lower than today. But wtfdik.....

So what's your agenda? Be honest, be kind....if you have some info that you think warrants a lower sp then please let me know. I want to hear both sides so I can shape my investment decisions...

atb GS

That's my agenda. If you want to short, then at least make that clear. An opinion on here is not going to make any impact.

I do agree Upomega...although, definately want full value before any approach.

NCYT and Omega have history....Abingdon could also be in the frame. We will see! Cant imagine us going for less than £5 whatever happens. Colin is certainly making this business develop its attractiveness. Looking forward to seeing the fy results!