Member Info for GreggsStottie

....and I have a sneaky feeling that capacity will be higher than 2m tests a week. 2.5m plus imo.

Looking forward to tge next 4 to 6 weeks....

IMO it depends on notification of TT now. I have a hunch it will be later in March, I would love after the tax year ends so I can put funds into the next ISA...either way, I am invested so can only win imo.

Good luck for tomorrow everyone, we do deserve a jump up for our patience!!!

Vela...can you quantify that? With some actual figures? Its really easy to have an opinion without backing up what you say....

If you really think the sp factors in orders you are deluded. I have backed my opinion up with facts frkm the finncap document, can you?

Fourfingers bull said on 2nd March...

Kev....Colins not bothered about day to day SP or Pi,s!
He is building a massive business for the future and has his sights firmly set on that and helping solve some of Life’s ills....disease the main one and helping those less well off countries another.
I may not like his methods re PR but you would be mad to sell a single share now!
He will succeed and make lots of people a lot of money.

I guess you are shorting from the 80p level and want to get out? It is easy to see peoples posting history...busted.

2m tests a week from April (possibly sooner, currently c.1m.)
Expecting 200/250k RTC Covid tests per week - expected at £1.60 per test to ODX / 80p per test profit.
Remaining 1.8m tests will be split Antigen/Antibody - expected at £5 per test / £2.50 profit per test.

Holding ODX is not really worrying me at all, you can see what's around the corner, despite not being fully in the public domain. oh.

The Littleport business is worth 60p a share on its own, so at the moment you have the covid business for around 30p a share when it could be worth £2.00-5.00. I would say the upside is more likely than downside. DYOR and work out what's coming.

asher7 - I actually like varied opinions and don't have an issue if the person/s have valid points of view. I just think the views of TW are twisted to suit an agenda. Which I don't really have time for.

Like many PI's I am frustrated that the golden news has not yet hit..... What is true is that we need confirmation of actual orders and TT. Once they come (and I believe they will) we will be off to the races. What many fail to recognise is the massive strides ODX have made in the last year to get to this point and the great job Colin and the team have done to do that during a pandemic. They should be commended for getting us to this point. Can you imagine the number of meetings and conference call, technical discussions in an environment that is changing rapidly?

Colin has listened to PI's and RNS'd info rather than on Twitter and people are still not happy. Crazy.

I want Colin and the team to focus on getting the job done, not pander to PI's/us. Get on and deliver the plan and the value will come.

Those that want riches today and cant wait a few weeks/months are sadly missing the point.

"When you cant't argue the facts, call people names. Really really weird that people dont like the facts."

Literally LOL...someone get me a bedpan!!!!

TW - The flowery field has been beautiful to see grow from a seedling last year. Not yet in bloom, but we can see the bud and colour of the leaves. Just needs some sunny days to open up and show its beauty.

So far up 40p since I bought in, a year ago. Not too shabby eh...that so called flowery field looks pretty good to me.

Expecting this to motor on through the £1/£2 level within the next few weeks/months...surely by May/June time.

Its great to own a share of a manufacturer that can produce whatever it wants and with whoever it wants. That reduces risk and opens up lots of opportunity.

I find it very hard to see much downside risk, however I can see lots of reasons to believe the share price will be higher in the short to medium term.

bakky - if some figures are off track, what is your expectation of contract size? Would be good to hear your thoughts on this.....

What figures have you come up with?

Ref not a full RNS....Well, that is blooming obvious. There are no contract sizes, price per unit, cost to test etc. The market is just opening up here. There is nothing sensitive about the RNS at all. No meat on the bone. But surely, this will be a pull model rather than push. We will produce to order, avoiding stockpiling (tying up cash and inventory) etc.

I await the orders from Screen4. Now that will be price sensitive info, because it means cashflow and profit.

I cant see any negatives to giving us an RNS for this info, its great the business is cracking on with opportunities.

I see this as the 1st in a long line of wins that will see the sp move north. Those that cant see this are sadly missing the point. Littleport is a gem and can only add to the value of ODX as a business.

All the best holders.

I think Han**** on tv tonight may have something to do with the rise. Although, we all know that the momentum should drive the SP upwards over the coming weeks. Anything under £1 is a bargain imo. I have run out of money to invest more so I await the rerate! Its coming, just have to be patient.

I have no issue with traders, wish I had done so here as I could have probably increased my holding by 50%! But hindsight is a wonderful thing and I would have probably sold at the wrong time and lost value knowing my luck!!! Well done to those that have succeeded in this aim!

Having said all that those that saw the light at 50p (like many of us) are up considerably so it ain't so bad to invest and hold!

Looking forward to hearing more news as the month progresses.

Candid...the RNS states Q2....

Southampton, UK - 20 January 2021: Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG), the respiratory drug discovery and development company, is pleased to announce that recruitment of 120 COVID-19 patients into its Phase II trial evaluating inhaled formulation of interferon-beta-1a (SNG001) conducted in the home setting has now been completed. Results from the trial are expected in Q2 2021.

So April-June. April means we can load up our new ISA allowances....there is potential for the Activ2 trial to move to P3 in March...plus EUA etc. So plenty news to come over the next few months.

I would also like an update on production capabilities. Surely this must be well in excess of the 100,000 RM was talking about last year (given 2 interferon suppliers not just 1).

It looks like the Brazilian strain si now in the UK, probably rest of Europe....unfortunately, this is not good as I believe it has stronger resistance to the vaccine. I dearly hope for all our sakes that this is not the case, as we need to get on with our lives.

All the best Synners...

Apologies for the typo...quite right £6.65m.

The Finncap note states £1.60 per test (it says sales price, but not sure if that's unit selling price or profit).

If the Sales price is £1.60 (c.80p profit per test) - 200,000 per week = £128k wk/£66.56m PA.
If the Sales price is £2.50 (£1.70 gross profit per test) - 200,000 per week = £340k wk/£17.7m PA.

The remaining 1.8m tests split antigen/antibody we think will be more like £5 per test and a £2.50 per test profit. This equates to £4.5m wk / £234m PA.

Food Doctor and Aids lines also contribute positive margins (??? £2m)
New testing facility is up and running at Ely which again should prove profitable (??? £2m)

£17.7m + £234m + £2m + £2m = £255m (1 x multiplier valuation puts us at £1.41)

Even if we half that profit number £255m/2 = £127.5m and put a sensible 5 x multiplier valuation (but could be as high as 14x)...

£637.5m MKT CAP POTENTIAL
181m shares in issue
£3.52.

So imo, we are looking at a potential share price of £3.52 - £7.04 based on the above commercials.

Please feel free to pick holes in any of my calcs...

Cheers

Does anyone have knowledge of when EUA run their nomal bod meetings?
I understand an extraordinary meeting could be af any time, but wonder if the timing of sale announcement will match their normal board meeting dates.

This could direct us to possible timing.

Holding strong here, but battle worn! Like most of us...great to see ii's still loading up.

My wife had covid a few months back. She lost smell and taste for around 6 weeks. I am sure it will come back soon...good luck.

To add to that...

Given SNG have already had results from a home trial (not yet in the public domain), one would think that these results would have guided the discussions with the FDA and inclusion in the Activ2 trial...

£25 to £50 a share would change many lives on this forum and I dont think we are too far off a rerate...assuming the results come in as good as we hope. I am lucky to be in with a low average and win or lose, I keep my shirt.

Day 28 of the Activ2 trial is not so far away now...exciting times.

I would suggest that the long lead items and even short lead items will have been ordered + future requirements from their supply chain ....otherwise 2m a week wont happen.

The only reason for buyjng long lead items is if you have a very strong reason for doing so. A business wants to mitigate risk...

Ignore the derampers, the rerate will come...just need to chill and work out what you will spend the returns on.

Good luck all...

For those that feel they dont get enough facts from the company and info is not being disseminated, please have a look at the FinnCap research portal.

https://www.finncap.com/our-services/research

Everything you need to know about the companies position and future is there to behold.

I haven't yet seen 1 de-ramper give any forward looking financial reason as to why the sp wont be much higher than today in 6 months time. They do spout on about lack of clarity, lack of RNS's etc...but most wont have experience of manufacturing or know what is involved in getting a product to market, in a pandemic and with ever changing government policies/demands. We dont know what ODX can and cant say due to NDA's....so using Twitter to shout about the info they can is a great way to keep us informed.

What is certain is that TT will come, up to 2m tests will be produced a week (only 200,000 of which will be RTC Covid tests). The remainder will be higher margin Antigen/Antibody tests and this is where ODX will drive profits.

The research note will give you lots of info to start to think about future potential....

ATB....

"9. Additional funding for £400 million will be added to a budget outstanding for 2020-21 for next year to create a budget of £2billion for testing going forward. This is supported by a new action plan and this will be published in March."

Assuming the government want 14m tests a week (2bn/52 weeks £38.46m per week / 14m tests per week = £2.75 cost).
Assuming we can make 2m per week...
£286m turnover....
Assuming we make a 75% margin...£2.06 per test profit.
Equates to £214m profit per year (5x multiplier for mkt cap = £1.07bn/181m = £5.91 potential SP)

Assuming a 50% margin that equates to £143m profit (5x multiplier for mkt cap = £715m/181m = £3.95 potential SP)

So potential for £3.95 to £5.91 on the above basis.

Whatever happens there is plenty of blue skies between 88p and £3.95/£5.91.

Alternative views very welcome....