Member Info for GreggsStottie

Thd ACF report is a good starting point.....c.78p value.

Since then the value of the pgm's has sky rocketted, anx we havd the flanks and and and...only the bod know whats in the dfs + the companies who have placed non binding offers, and the russian state.

We will see what offers come soon...hoping for in the next 2 weeks.

Thanks Greg, it makes senss to focus on 1 site for 1 specialist area. The site in Alva looks big enough to extend further so plenty of options there.....

Moving littleport towards Cambs is a solid move and will help attract staff.

Enjoy the weekend all...

I agres that someone would wanf tk buy Omega becauss of what they now offer. But, Colin will know what the true value of tge business is. I suspect Littleport will feature strongly in the ramp up of volume ahead of 2m ped week. I notice tgat they have a big field behind their site. Google maps helped...J thimk I would be speaking to ths farmer!!!

I believe this coilx go to £10 a share, once orders are rolling in and around 2m per week, followied with a plan to upscale to 4m...per week...

When you do the maths, £10 is not that unrealistic based on 75% margin and a £3 per test sales price.

This is sitting pretty in a perfect storm...I hope to realise what I think could be a lifd changing return for many.

All ths best...

Charts are an indicator, but they do not take into account actual news, until it is out....so £1.60 would be my short term target i.e. next 1-3 weeks. I am hoping to be well above £2.50 in March, possibly higher dependent on what news comes out.

No brainer at these prices imo.

Going by my research on the internet, pharma Co's can command between 6 and 12 x earnings...

That is why I fully agree that £5 per share is very achievable here. Plus, you get food doctor sales and other testing included for free. When that happens is a matter for discussion, however NCYT did manage to really ramp the SP

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=NCYT&share=Novacyt

It took NCYT 6 weeks to rise from £3 to £11 from late Sept to Nov. Assuming a similar trajectory this could get to £2.50 by March.

One thing is certain, we are still very undervalued and momentum and timings are now on our side!

I expect Abingdon will notify the market today or monday....then boom!

...and when capacity doubles again to 4m then I think we will be looking at a takeover situation. This will be good fun to watch it play out...

Assuming we sell 2m per week at c.£3 each. Thats c300m...so thats 3x current market cap just on 1x sales.

I think somehow the market has not woken up to whats around the corner for odx... it was hiding in plain sight all along. Maybe NCYT performance has hampered us here...but nog for too much longer...

I was nearly with you...however...I reassessed thd investment case and I realised once more that this is a fantastic business on the cusp...glad I held anx stayed sttong.

It would have been easier to sell but rerate is coming...

Thats a fair point bakedb,

My point is that even assuming 80% of those figures we still get to £10.40- £5.92...a massive gulf in fair value.

So getting to £2.50 should be possible with a fair wind in our sails and more certainty on orders and production capacity updates.

I am, hoping to see a little red dot tomorrow morning....

180m shares in issue
Assume £3 per test average
Assume 75% gross margin (typical for pharma)
2.5m x 52 x £3 = Sales of £390m PA (excluding food doctor/Aids etc)
Annual Gross Profit = £222m

Businesses are valued on multiples of earnings.....
Valuing the £390m x 6 = £2.34bn / 180m shares = £13.00
Valuing the Gross Profit Alone= £222m x 6 = £1.332bn / 180m shares = £7.40

A healthcare business can be valued at 6 to 12 x EBITDA...check this link out:

https://www.nashadvisory.com.au/resource-centre/valuing-business-using-the-multiples-approach

I think we can safely say that ODX is seriously undervalued on 2.5m tests per week from April 2021....we just need the orders to be in place and this will undoubtedly skyrocket. The govt are clearly waiting for the production to be in place first and foremost. There must be a plan, otherwise we would not be ramping up production and staffing to fill ZERO orders.

GL holders....

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/people/mass-covid-testing-for-food-workers-begins-after-tate-and-lyle-trial/652341.article?utm_source=Daily%20News%20(The%20Grocer)&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2021-01-21&c=

Peel - I use ii and they have been great. Have used for c.10 years without any issue. I hear that HL has lots of issues...but that's just what I hear on the boards...ii have a good value structure that costs me £2.01 per month as I get £7.99 credit per month on the £10 charge.

The company website states that in January 2021 they will be supplying the 2020 annual report. Lets wait and see...interesting to see all the supposed sells are in fact buys...my buy was red....

https://www.supplymecapital.com/investor/financial-calendar/

I do think ODX is a target for takeover....could Mologic be a good suitor? Or even NCYT?

Given the capacity increases at ODX the money is yet to be made....a great time to pounce?

It depends on what your timescales are and how much you have invested, if you need the cash now or soon.

If I had a 5 x uplift in value in a year I would think that was solid.

If you are happy to wait fof 25x the 10p then happy days. Alas, people dont want to wait and this is why shares move a lot on aim.

I desl with factories across Europe. Thess oftrn havd shut downs to replace parts, move production lines, build additional spaces etc etc.

This is normal practice.

If you want to extend production at certain points you may need a shutdown. This is important if you need a sterile facility...

Can I have 1st Feb please Ian...would be a nice birthday present!!!

...Because the home trial has gone on for so long, I would expect the results to be pretty well known.

I would suspect they will be able to give interim results far quicker than April. We might even get something in Feb.

Its probable that patient dosing will be fully completed in 2-3 weeks...the 120th patient 1st dose could be this week.

I am lucky to have sn average of 50p. I have limited downside, but massive upside potential.

So for me, i am happy to wait.

Scaling up production takes time. When you build an extension it doesnt happen overnight. But whrn it is finished the impact and value is immediate.

Thats what I believe we have here. The calm before the storm.....

Computor...You have invested more today...surely you are not just doing that on a whim?