Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Thanks
I'm choosing to remain nonchalant, I recall the CFO purchasing shares at 50p right before the collapse, normally that would be taken as a good sign!
That said, I'm still of the opinion they are expecting some good news which is what is delaying them announcing the Final Results (believing they want to include an update in the RNS). To my knowledge they have an obligation to formally announce the Final Results.
Musing is all we can do for now!
Would someone mind clarifying for me as I am unsure, if these options were taken in full does that amount to dilution of the existing shares issued, or are these option shares held by the business already?
20p after good news might be optimistic - but this does depend on the news! if contract manufacturing lands a big contract before news on valves or grafts I can see up to 30M MCap. I'm torn, but I have manageable position at this level to hopefully aid a quick exit or to minimise dilution at a new level.
I'll bow down to your technical knowledge on that Jimzi, I may be confusing terminology, I was referencing the number of sellers who I believe would exit on a small gain very quickly given the number of shares held that would double in value at 22p. There's been a couple of weighty sells this morning.
IntraVnus - I agree. I have a theory that RUA are withholding notifying about final results in anticipation of including some good news (which they must be expecting if I am right). And if it is a 'blow the doors off' RNS as CTSFO (and the rest of us) hopes we might need to take our socks off to count the multiplications of the SP - except that as you point out the overhang is huge and many of them would probably take a doubling of the SP without a second thought.
CTSFO - if you find the time it is worth going back to 2019 /18 and following the story through RUA updates, the first error came when due to Covid the additional cleaning in the lab actually contaminated a crucial test they carried out (grafts) and delayed proceeding by about six months. Ever since then we have been waiting for that transformational RNS but things went from bad to worse, a lot of the spoils of the tech (if it ever gets to market) is now going have to be shared to get the various products over the line.
Ultimately I believe the reward (which comes with equal risk) will be huge which is why I keep a position here.
Tomorrow marks the latest RUA notify the markets of final year results in recent years.
So I'm going to put a positive spin on and say they are waiting for something cheerful to report with it (as they seem to like to do) and that they would only hold off if they were expecting something to report.
Of course that could be fantasy rather than reality but I'm an optimist!
Might as well chuck in my pennies worth...
Only my opinion.
There was a year end trading update released early June last year, so I am expecting similar this year. The SP can jump on the most meagre of positive statements, although they tend to fall back fairly quick. Final results are released late July, these are important as they will provide more information on how long the cash will last (the assumption on here being 3+ years).
Any developments in HV, grafts or Contract Manufacturing will be reported timely when they happen in a dedicated RNS - there's no telling when that could happen.
Despite the expectation of HV testing taking 6 months, realistically, that could take way, way longer. And if the major likes it who knows what the benefit to RUA will be, a small licensing contract or an IP purchase - your guess is as good as mine.
Grafts - I think they could be gently mothballing this rather than actively seeking a partner. If it is a good as they say it is then a six million investment should have suitors fighting each other for it. The lack of interest has me thinking it is risky.
For me the most important development and the best hope in the short term is securing a significant contract manufacturing contract for which they have charged a 'global enterprise' £100K for initial development work. The cost of 'initial development' work makes me think it is for RUA to lose. This alone would more than double the SP. This is important because it could make the business profitable and make the cash position less relevant which is a stronger position for negotiating with partners (it also means they may be able to fund grafts to some degree themselves). It would stop any sharks circling too.
The SP assuming positive developments in HV and grafts depend entirely on the benefit to RUA. The sky's the limit if the tech is a good as they say (if it was, it wouldn't take this long).
The SP is where it is because the risk is so high, this is no longer 'when not if' as Caroline Stratton frequently stated, it is definitely 'if not when'.
Yes, I am invested, far less than in the past and at a loss here. The risk and the reward are high! Capital definitely at risk!
All just my own thoughts and opinions!
Bradshaw Asset Management is the only stand out one, 2.5M in shares (4.12%), or over a quarter of the companies invested funds (March 2023 figure). I think Mark Bradshaw is an ex-city trader gone solo. Hopefully he knows something we don't!
The only other significant interest declaration was Rathbones but how that is split between clients we don't know - there appears to be three. https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/aortech/news/rns/story/w3p8gjx
Https://rualifesciences.com/investor-relations/significant-shareholders/
Were all those buys one entity, or did a group of buyers all steam in, and then stop, in the same short time frame! a curious coincidence if they did. Surely one buyer would spread their buys a bit!
Anyway, can somebody do some selling, I don't want to top up at 13p. 2-3 weeks at most before an RNS lands. Will it stick to final accounts or will it include an update, or will it be preceded altogether with an announcement.
It is implausible that anyone one of a number of people with insider knowledge at either the customer (valves and contract manufacturing) / RUA or a potential partner (grafts) is NOT tipping the wink to extended family / friends. The big buys doesn't mean news is coming or coming imminently, but it it certainly creates a strong suspicion that some major positive breakthrough has occurred. Remember with RUA, a few big buys is all it takes, and a whole load of small investors start jumping onboard to top up, so it could also just be a false start. What it does indicate is there are a lot of buyers for when/if news does drop.
Looking at trades (I don't pay much attention) there seems to be more large purchases than normal. Looking positive.
Indeed - a large contract win for contract manufacturing changes not just the business case but the sentiment too. Could be a huge catalyst once the short termists are cleared out.
The HV can't fail as such, it has already been tested and marketed by RUA, it is whether or not they can find a customer who can make use of it. If the current MTA doesn't go anywhere it just means they won't integrate it into their business, hence RUA need some other interest.
They need this new customer in the contract manufacturing business to take them to break even otherwise they are just running down the money, and 4M may not necessarily last that long (at what level do they start thinking about raising? 1M, 500K?). When they double their income (as they have been talking about for well over a year) then I will be comfortable invested here. Given the customer has paid £100K just for preliminary work, and RUA are good in this area, I think the chances of landing the contract is very good. Expect a positive response in the SP when that happens.
RUA have expressed frustration at how slow the industry moves, whether or not it is slow or there is just no serious interest in the products remains to be seen. The upside to them achieving a fraction of their ambition is too good to ignore but you have to accept the risks with RUA, they've talked a good talk for a long time now, time for results not talk!
Not much longer to wait for an RNS, hopefully it will report something interesting!
Material Transfer Agreement - the major that is testing the heart valve. My understanding is there are AIM rules about buying during certain sensitive business activities, otherwise I imagine any staff who knew ahead of markets about a major announcement would mortgage their house to buy shares.
Incredible optimism considering I've been invested in RUA for something like three years now!
I'll try to restrict my hopes and dreams to that contract manufacturing sale to land!
You're not wrong Jimzi, I avoid posting when I'm feeling optimistic for fear of appearing mental! I mean 30M is for a company that is close to achieving something, imagine if it actually did (not to rubbish the hard work they've done to get to the current position but money talks).
Lets just say my medium to long view is between loosing 100% of my investment and a quarter of a billion MCAP. And I am prepared to stand by that.
Not particularly understanding the value of EV - the more debt a company has the higher the EV? the more cash you hold the lower your EV? RUA would have a higher EV if they borrowed instead of issuing more shares.
I'm thinking RUA are in a slightly unusual situation of holding a lot of cash compared to the income of the business, low debt and low SP and maybe EV doesn't work here. It's like punishment for not investing available capital which in some businesses might be justified, but not in this context.
MCAP + debt - cash = EV
RUA have previously been valued at £30+M with less sales, when sentiment on grafts was positive (but valves were way off monetisation). Some positive news in each business area and maybe, just maybe we will see £30M this year.
But don't underestimate RUAs ability to disappoint, despite the fantastic opportunities something has got to land.
That's an interesting observation Jimzi, if my Barclays shares doubled I wouldn't describe it as a little boost, but with RUA they could report that Bill got out the right side of the bed in the morning and that would add a few pence, albeit back down again by the end of the week. (or perhaps someone observes the chart looks like a certain mountain range therefore its definitely going to be 17p next week).
I've not been paying much attention of late but re-reading the last update I hadn't appreciated the significance of a £100K order just for developmental work on a potential contract, hopefully the actual contract is many multiples of the initial order and, given the initial cost, hopefully its RUAs to lose rather than try to win. Maybe the next bit of good news will be a significant contract order.
Anyway, I wasn't attempting to predict the price (good luck with that!), just that a if they were break even then 12-14M would seem a reasonable SP, especially with the potential of the valve and grafts - where I hope they have success and give the SP a big boost.