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I'd never heard this quote before but feels relevant, the market can sustain irrational valuations longer than you can sustain solvency. Provided RUA don't run out of money, a rerate should only be a matter of time.

A decent CM contract could secure break even/small profit which would make the 7M MCap (not 6M I stated below) seem not just irrational but impossible.

I'm betting on a summary of the 18 months to 30 Sept tomorrow or next week, the full report is due January. I can imagine a scenario where they stay silent until then. I do not have high expectations for revenue or announcements, but that in itself is not the investment case. What we are most hoping for is a major partnership on the heart valve or a major CM contract (minor ones welcome). The latest RNS allude to 'negotiations' and their behaviour (silence) is typical of such activity.

Without jumping back to reports I recall Rua make 4M revenue, are close to break even, are valued at 6M and have IP on genuinely useful tech. They are a credible CM business with working relationships with major players. Not only is there a recovery / re-rate case for the SP, but also a growth play. If they were valued at just 10x revenue the MCap would be 40M or 60p per share.

But don't ask for timescales! all you will get is 'industry moves slowly' (which is sadly correct).

The absolute silence on leaflets is baffling. I expected to hear of more testing milestone/data/outcome of the majors recent (income generating ) interest but nothing. Is there an NDA and secret talks taking place, in which case I'd expect some sort of leak that would impact the SP. Or has the outcome killed the project dead. It's certainly easy to imagine a positive upside to this share but is that constructed and misleading. I'm not expecting a year end summary that meets investors expectations so I hope there will soon be a business update outlining new growth, as has been said before, the most recent growth is a fantastic confirmation of their expertise.

On another note, Samsmith, do you still have an active account on LSE? I can't see any of your comments, they've all been deleted.

Nice observation, thanks. I'm hoping for some early shoots from the US, seems like the right time. Marketing was due to be ramped up in the UK in the second half, it's positive that there is evidence of this working.

Any reason not to expect a trading or business update in the next 2-3 weeks?

I nearly topped up this morning, oh well Until the next quarterly release the price may easily be back to 150. If the US business gets a foothold in the next 6-12 months there should be little to worry about here. I'm hoping they have managed some growth in the UK business too.

Hopefully not all of them! many are very positive. Back to being a good little investor and not asking any challenging questions for now then.

Hi Tom, did you get a response? My replies are always courteous but never revealing!

I hope they didn't massage the accounts so they could show a profit.

The Cavendish note explicitly states a forecast -0.8 EBITDA (-1.2 operating profit). In answer to P119, that is where I got £800K loss from.

Businesses don't pull out of lucrative markets, although I agree the reduced competition may bear fruit.

Signs of life isn't enough. Schumacher shows signs of life but he's not winning any races.

I'm a hold (the mid position of buying and selling of which I've been accused of both this morning), because there could very well be a lucrative contract being negotiated or a potential sale of the business or parts of the business. Nobody knows, not even ChatGPT (which I am assuming references its sources), because RUA aren't saying anything more than what amounts to dangling a carrot (and they stated they are stopping that too).

Fair comment, challenge and justification is why I read these bulletins, I can't find explicit reporting of a reported loss expected in the 18 months to Sept although I'm sure I read something along those lines, perhaps it was the Cavendish note income statement stating -0.8 EBITDA for 2025. However, there are these two comments from the latest annual report:

Other income is represented in the main by the bargain purchase gain on the acquisition of ABISS. Having concluded the fair value calculation of the assets and liabilities of ABISS, the gain amounts to £917k. Of this gain £322k reflects the recognition of the work in progress, the attributed value of which had the resultant depressing impact on gross margin recognised on consolidation.

ABISS is the legal manufacturer of pelvic floor repair devices under CE Mark and a subcontract manufacturer of the same devices for a US manufacturer. ABISS was purchased with a short-term order backlog, which was fulfilled in the period. However overall, inventory levels at ABISS's customer had been increased to levels higher than required due to the supply chain risk as a result of the status of the former parent of ABISS. There will be a period of reduced orders as this excess inventory is worked through the system. However, ABISS is not anticipated to be a drag on the Group during this period.

This leads me to believe ABISS won't be contributing at an annualise rate of 1.3M for the 18 month period, but no reason to believe costs will be reduced.

The Cavendish note forecasts 4.7M of income but RUA have not reported any new contract wins that will deliver that level of income, so if their income statement is correct in other areas, perhaps EBITDA will be worse than -0.8.

This does tell me that should RUA report losses, there will be some running for the exits because they are not expecting it. I'm not a trader, with a 10-15% spread and an already depressed SP there's no successful trading here.

RUA are reliant on a new, significant contract win, to put a rocket up its backside, something that has been eluded to for probably over two years now, without success. Their growth so far has been organic or acquisition. I still believe something is in the pipeline but in part because I've been fed soundbites (pipeline, product development, great data) but the fruits of all the good work aren't there yet, hence the SP. I still want to understand the significance of changing the reporting period.

I remain invested for now, but if anything I would reduce my holdings (I'm not going to for now), not increase them.

I wouldn't invest right now knowing what I know as a long term investor. They are certainly cheap, but with an expected loss 800k coming up and 'only' a couple of mil in the bank thereafter, I can see a raise coming. If they land a big contract I have no idea of their capacity to fulfill it without additional capacity. They say too little, progress is too slow and their IP apparently unwanted. I feel very in the dark as progress outlined hasn't always happened and I don't know what their strategy, plan or pipeline is because thay have a policy of silence. I'm still here out of nostalgia and hope that they couldn't possibly go any lower and a surprise announcement would put a rocket under them.

Building a US business is going to be tough, but once there is momentum there is no reason for it not to succeed, they only need a tiny % of the market. More tangible results will come in the next 6-24 months. A critical milestone might be break even.

Sorry, was doing that on my phone last night and didn't check - https://www.cavendish.com/research-portal/#/portal/cavendish/research/129_2288f85d-830a-41af-a827-a4e9daa57991

You might need to register some details. I can e-mail you if you have an address you can share.

It's a nice read but it's based on RUA achieving it's CM goals of which Cavendish have no insider information on. There's plenty of talk of pipeline, negotiating, exploiting and opportunities but no mention of when. Now they've stated there's going to be less of that sort of talk. So they could just be putting all hopes slowly to bed like they did with grafts and leaflets. I wish they'd announce something positive to build on last years successes.

Rualifesciences.com / investors / research. Link doesn't want to paste.

It's been a strange week and now there's a 15% spread. A small purchase has been made for 13p, are MMs just monkeying around here. If news does leak they'll probably have several months to act on it here!

Anyone got an opinion as to why the sell off? Is it disappointment in US progress? I recall the SP was higher before we even knew they were going g to the US.

The next known update is scheduled for the end of Jan. That's a long time to hear nothing, I hope they say anything before then.

The RNS' of late have been rammed fully of hints at 'opportunities'. It will be disappointing if nothing lands.

I take that as a positive, no impatient investors or over expectations. When the US business starts to take off and looks like a winner I expect some more frantic interest. The next three years should be good, ten years excellent.

Headlines look good. Steady growth, lots of room to grow, what's not to like. I look forward to 2034!