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Assuming breakeven at $30 brent, and sales at $70 - Profit $40 @ 40% tax = $16 a barrel after tax.

Brent @$115 today. Profit $85 @ 65% tax = $29 a barrel after tax.

ignoring the political, moral angle - oil cos can go gangbusters. State taxes commodities - it's the way it is. BAT returned massive amounts to investors for a decade when a pack of fags is 90% tax (no idea but a lot).

I think we should look past the annoyance of this and recognise the cold hard facts are there's a lot of money still to be made here.

Sorry for typo - dickupham!

I understand your frustration duckupham. Midcap oilers have suffered a drop as their potential income to investors has dropped by amount extra tax affects them. Annoying.

But - they're not crippled? All the money they made with OP as high as it's been is intact. As long as they invest it, they won't lose much of it. And the OP is stratospheric and looks like it will get higher. They're still making (much) more than the old tax environment but Brent at $70?

As said I understand your frustration but I don't think it's a catastrophe.

1) It wasn't retrospective - which always stresses people out. The coffers that might be used to farm in to JOG are untouched.

2) There is a great incentive to invest these coffers or lose them - Sunak structured the tax to encourage investment.

3) Energy security is a thing now, UKNS is a much more benign environment to get project approval, the world knows Sunak was dragged kicking and screaming.

4) Russian oil is out the picture for the medium term. Even with China lockdowns oil price is up. Outlook from most people is bullish for the medium term, and not really expressed in the spot (or forward) prices due to cost of storing etc.

5)Oil Co execs and industry body are threatening that this will ruin investment etc in the press, but that is their job and they must do it whenever a sniff of extra tax. Many will be secretly happy they now know the worst, and some positive noises amongst the wailing etc.

6) I would prefer this windfall not to happen, but it has happened pretty well for JOG. I hope oil cos will take the view that at first oil the OP will be high, and tax probably gone by then anyway.

On balance I'm not reducing. I liked the AGM presentation - although I think we're a month away at least.

Ignoring the rights and wrongs of a windfall tax, recent profits from the independents near JOG due to high OP will have seriously swelled coffers that could be used to farm-in.

I should think a windfall tax isn't ideal but there will remain substantial remaining profits if Sunak is restrained.

Regardless of the umbrage the oil cos take, the sustained high OP and outlook, coupled with government wanting NS development should still make JOG a very very compelling proposition. Remember it's breakeven at $30 odd a barrel. Comes with legacy tax loss also.

Big news coming soon I'm sure!!!!!!

BREAKING: The House of Commons votes by 310 to 248 against Labour's motion to impose a windfall tax on oil and gas producers.

dickupham - thanks for this cracking piece of analysis. You are very precise in your writing! If this is indeed the plan I wonder whether the events of Russia invading have complicated matters by introducing more interested parties that the board have to consider. Either way it's all very positive.

PJT12 - my take is that the results announcement and management share purchases have changed the mood music here - whilst OP outlook still good this is moving closer and closer to very high likelihood of a deal. I think there will be reasonable interest in accumulating over the next weeks and dips will be less pronounced than before, and recover. Profit taking by the more tradery types yes, but I don't think people will be taking money off the table because they're getting worried about a 'no deal' scenario. Idle chat based on nothing concrete - just musing.

Was having a conversation in the pub yesterday with another JOG holder, and we got to talking over Les Thomas's purchase as well. Thinking about it that's even more positive than AB - Les has only been on board 6 months or so, at this stage what possible reason could he have to chuck £21k on the table if things weren't looking very rosy indeed?

The ex-CEO of Ithaca joined up, got his old colleagues on, then bought shares at a multi-year high. ????

I think common sense would say we won't see a deal announcement over the next few weeks, even if management could justify it to FCA. But I see no reason why early June couldn't see a deal.Much, much more importantly, AB has put £35k of his own money on the line (of which he'll lose 75% if 'no deal') at the latest high. The RNS did the job of boosting the SP, and the market is comfortable to wait for the deal. There is no need for him to do this, unless he is more confident than ever a deal will be done.

I'm no expert in directors dealing rules - but I don't know why this has relevance to the timeline of a deal. Isn't it that directors can't deal if they know material information the market does not?

Hypothetically, various workstreams could complete over the next two weeks, and the deal negotiated shortly after? It's not like directors know the results of those negotiations now?

It's in everyone's interests to get cracking - on an NPV basis alone. We'll see a deal soon in my view. I bought a lot more today.

GL all as always

Apologies - additional point - I don't agree recent options necessarily means a deal is far away. The previous options all pay out immediately on a farm-out deal being done. So if a deal is signed tomorrow, where's the incentive for the new management team to stay? And the mechanism for that would be hard to sort post multi-bag. The latest options are to link management incentives for life after the farmout (which we should all be interested in if we want to exit post announcement, or enjoy a steady upward journey if we choose to stick around).

It seems to be happening, doesn't it? Very exciting! Lots of 'how to spend the money' discussions happening at home. (Touches wood). I think one of the defining benefits of this story is it looked like a sucker stock. Engage anyone smart/ experienced with a pitch that starts 'independent oiler/ farm out/ multibag' and eyes roll. We have a fair wind of course, so not changing career quite yet.

Options plan seems to be designed to precisely incentivise the management team to get to first oil. High strike price, vesting over 3 years. If the team give their all to deliver the project, and are successful, sometime in 2026 they get rich. I'm 100% supportive of that (to uncomfortably reference the prince of darkness).

Good luck all!

Isn't the point that oilers must invest or get taxed? Positive for JOG.

PS I also hate the Grauniad but no paywall

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/27/rishi-sunak-uk-oil-and-gas-windfall-tax

Invest or get taxed....

I think the engineering co-projects are what do it for me, not just the adjective. Previously management could have been bluffing. What does 'interested' mean? They went to one meeting? But this report leaves no doubt to the intense level of engagement.

When I first got involved in this post the placing it seemed like a great punt. But a punt. What's in the results today as good as tells us that having seen all the data, multiple counterparties are spending time working out the production solution to finish the negotiations for the deal. It's hard to see how the management could be bull****ting about serious engagement at this point. It's happening. Oil is above $100 even though China demand down due to lockdowns and fear of global recession. Remember when oil price used to mark economic activity? And Russia still selling the stuff full blast!Both environment and messaging from JOG immeasurably better, yet shares still roughly where I bought them a year ago! Rheinmetall stock doubled when Russia invaded before they announced any specific deals.Sorry to sound like a ramper but this is such a gimme at this point. My big worry was geological given the subjective/ complex nature of that, but given the engagement the barriers to a deal must only be working through the best options and execution plan with partners - takes time.Good luck all.

I think it's as clear as ever that a deal will be done. The specifics on results show they are doing engineering studies with multiple counterparties - in order to negotiate the deal. It's the biggest field left to develop in the North Sea, all the others are snapped up - and the project dynamics are best with cooperation with the local infrastructure of the independents surrounding the GBA. That takes times to sort and anyone in business knows it can takes longer than you think to sign on the line that is dotted.

Cash position is fantastic and it's in no-ones interests to get diluted, so no worries there.

They've had a fair wind from Putin but looks like AB and the team are going to pull this off!

The note keeps the price target at 700p, and is mainly about the positive environment of UK energy policy.

It states that many options are still on the table, with broader cooperation with other companies in the NS, even tie backs, with ease of execution due to gov supportive. This seems to suggest multiple parties engaged (interested?) which is good for deal dynamics.

I note that they imply possibility of acquisition of a producing asset; this management team would be more than capable I guess.

Interesting that JOG has become less binary now. Seems the deal could take many shapes, even a quick tie-back rather than the mega project.

There are no social consequences to being rude, nasty and ignorant. It's like being at a party and insulting the host, getting all the thrills but no comebacks.

When you spot a troll on the internet - you ignore them. Dick, your long, personal and reasonable post is exactly what a troll wants. Dopamine hit - 'I got a rise!'

Just filter any trolls!

If this hits and multibags the faithful should meet up in a pub to celebrate

This is (not hard to) as predicted. The mega green stuff covers the O&G stuff. Once we get over the negative PR of splurge of investment in NS, the nuclear and renewables can slip. And for the time being the energy lifeline of NS keeps UK going.

I would think, and hope, that JOG is a beneficiary - independents now have proof of a low-tax and gov friendly environment for a last hurrah. They can go large without fear of coming unstuck by regulation/ windfall tax etc.

The deal hopefully is soon to sign and be announced.