Member Info for Greener101

I doubt he'll go anywhere until deal is done, don't think myself that's anything to do with the delay (although it's possible, but damn stupid to have a power struggle now).

No idea what he does with his stock post deal but if he does move on and retains a decent chunk I'd stick around more readily too!

It should be noted that JOG's management structure and situation is a great platform (no pun intended) for a buy and build strategy (like Ithaca). And with WFT having happened, prices for fresh acquisitions will be very low, irregardless (sic) of the pain previous owners may be feeling. With an experienced team of that quality, they may (and investors) feel they can snap up some things, shave costs and improve margins/ efficiency. And make a buck or two.

Although I hope they're concentrating on the deal!!!! ARG!!!!! but if they do a decent one the case for holding for the 'next guy' will be strong; should be a good exit for those who want to move on, and also a nice prospect for LTH.

Hoping for that pint to happen. Of Krug.

Lols. Yes sorry I was reading it off the companies house website, it's back to front sort of on a skim read. Noting he is the only new board director other than Les Thomas. Graham Andrew Forbes to be precise (correct). Just think AB's work raising the cash is done and GF is probably hungry to have a go at A CEO role. At least he knows a lot more about running a operational oiler where AB hasn't one iota of experience (no offence to AB, he's done great if/ when the deal lands).

Andrew Forbes will be the new CEO by end Q1. I bet anyone a pint.

A deal will happen. The delay will be turmoil from WFT and the long uncertain process of any complex farmout - just look at how long Cambo and Rosebank are taking, on the bus off the bus on the bus off the bus. Our question is what will be the characteristics of the deal. The team is vastly overqualified for the job - but they'll be fighting like f#@k to get best terms. Patience is the winner here. GLA

Sounds like excellent news... but no bump. SP is so low? How worried is everyone about an equity wipeout?

Agree with you Cyril2.

Interesting that Rosebank has come under fire from a minor Labour politician ( https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/472573/labour-rosebank-oilfield-equinor/ ), and one of the justifications is that the oil would be exported thus invalidating the 'domestic consumption' argument.

Buchan (I understand?!?) would join the forties pipeline and head back to UK for domestic consumption. It's also much much easier to electrify. It's also not a greenfield site so not 'new' drilling like Cambo/ Rosebank. It has lower API (must have lower CO2 footprint to refine?).

All of this would suggest lower regulatory hurdles to jump, and less eco-warrior pressure? And as pressure increases to end licensing, and the reluctance of players to get involved in the recent round, Buchan is a becoming scarce asset.

Other thoughts:

1) What with the crash in Nat gas prices and crude still holding around 80ish, composition of JOG and the '900m column of oil' fits current scenario better.

2) JOGs proven oil is now more valuable than potential in greenfields due to WFT. Lack of debt available and reduced investment in NS means less projects happen. Thus harder to diversify risk of drilling greenfield projects (if an oilco drills 6 projects and gets 2 dusters that's ok, but if you can only afford 2 projects you would prefer near certainty of outcome like Buchan.)

any flaws in my thinking? HNY all!

Just kidding - on the bus firmly. I'm with 'ol Longshot Louie on this one.

Talking of longshots I bought some Orcadian finally today after much prevarication. May be an expensive mistake if it goes bust but I think as a $100+ barrel in 2023 it could be buying JOG @40 way back when. Hopefully existing shareholders will keep it alive.

Sorry back to JOG. An RNS with Merry Christmas in it would be most welcome.

Those with deep pockets Chessman1?

https://youtu.be/FNRAKBz-UBs

Orcadian released a presentation yesterday - there is an EPL / financing part to the presentation highly relevant to JOG. Starts 25:15 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYC-tC7GzUY&t=1777s

In short, the EPL has dramatically helped JOG.

1. Checking long-term Brent futures (36months away?), financing calculations can be done on $75 per barrel, 50% more than the $50 Harbour said they were hedged at. That changes the sums quite a bit positively.
https://www.erce.energy/graph/brent-futures-curve/

2. Debt coupons are paid pre-tax? doesn't this mean debt investors are very well-protected?

3. 75% WFT converts vast potential dividends into vast investment equity. This artificially changes debt/equity ratio in deal? Many an all-equity deal?

Hoping as a result of today's failure to get a floor people in boardrooms are saying: ' we had a go, oh well b@llox let's pull the trigger'. Jingle Bells

Some commentators would say Hunt played an extremely defensive ball by design with the Autumn budget, to over-eliminate questions of fiscal discipline and stub out completely problems in the gilt and currency market.

Now that is achieved, quiet alterations (WFT floor) can be made... and as we lead up to the next general election gov will hope to stimulate the famous 'green shoots'.

All good for JOG. As said before I believe Hunt is also trying to force investment (like JOG), and gov is not as stupid as it looks. Acid test is investment in NS in coming years!

Many thanks for this Divecentre. So AM is the wrong type of FPSO? Or at least would like represent a poor deal for JOG...

JOG do mention FPSO in their AGM presentation in May 2022 - I assume other ships have better more suitable configurations? Or again - any FPSO would represent a poor deal, for a counterparty that wanted to minimise upfront costs? I wonder also if deployment of such a vessel could be pay for under the investment allowance; Doesn't seem so, as it's not CAPEX.

Any, FPSO doesn't sound like a great outcome. Re-reading that page (8) on that presentation is pretty exciting - some kind of Host tieback, electrified, and hooked into someone else's infrastructure (haha is this possible?) could unlock some insane upside in deal dynamics.

Many thanks for your response Divecentre

Dive centre - with some embarrassment it occurs to me that some members on this board actually know about Oil and Gas activities!

There used to be a guy called JT Southern who banged on about geology (although I think his views are disproven by events so far).

Why is that ship unsuitable? Is there something else more suitable to watch? Very interested to hear an O&G perspective on things.

Nice to see JS's one-man takeover is gathering pace

Remember - the interims was a down day. Weeks later we were up 50%. News will come to bring new eyes to the stock. The impatient are out already. JOG doesn't trade with market efficiency...

Price action and raw volume is probably as much as one needs? Can't go too much against that...

As a retail investor myself, not immune to emotional reactions... I was 49% 'oh cr@p' when the RNS dropped, before I had a chance to think. I was certainly worried others would exit (they have). But you could be right, just adding in another possibility.

Re ST, yes indeed that would help. We've had a slew of mixed or worrisome news over the last weeks, I think a positive news flow is much weighted to the upside - whether it be director deals, ST, WFT alteration, Energy Voice articles.

On the latter, now the cat is kind of out the bag re the 'certainly' happening F/O, whilst we're simply waiting for it to 'close out', we may start to see coverage in the trade press - not only that it's happening, but who potential partners are, what rigs are involved, contractors etc etc. Electrification too.

News should grind us up from here. Perhaps quickly if ST comments.

Any overhang is likely retail brokers shifting retail money out, IMHO.

I bought 20k in stock this morning via a well-known broker (2 roughly even chunks), it doesn't show at all on the share trades list.

My take is retail will have seen the RNS and be disappointed nothing 100% by Christmas, and quit. I believe anyone following JOG who thinks like that will have already sold. I might look stupid but I predict a slow grind upwards into 2023 and am positioning accordingly.

Perhaps you're right. The two points reinforce each other in a way though (it further highlights legal fallout that would tarnish many reputations).

Re overhang. As an ex-institutional friend told me once - people are selling for all sorts of reasons unrelated to fundamentals: rebalancing a portfolio, taking profit to cover losses elsewhere to get a bonus, Investment Committee enforced, etc etc

How to assess the language of the RNS? Is it a desperate CEO who has spent years trying to make a success of JOG throwing the dice one last time and exaggerating the situation?

I was turning this over yesterday; and took a lot of comfort in that the 3 Ithaca joiners, especially Les, have much more invested in reputation than the need to keep the can rolling down the road. If it was misleading in any way ('certainly in 2023'!?) they would have nothing to lose except worthless options - wouldn't they quit, rather than stand by and watch the market be mislead? Yet they are all in post, and no sell director dealings even from former directors such as RL and VG.

With that team, not chained historically to the project, having joined, stayed, and de facto put their reputation behind JOG and Benitz's RNS - this is a multi-bagger in plain sight.

I agree. The language being used would come under legal scrutiny if they're not very close to a deal. Hoping for a director buy...

Putting a floor in the WFT seems fair and also politically doable. It's no U-turn. If energy prices drop, inflation will drop and cost of inflation-linked gov debt will drop, making up for the WFT shortfall. News flow is weighted to the upside now!