Member Info for Greener101

I know we're down a bit today, someone seems to be selling PI amounts around 10am, but the stock is still holding up very well (touch wood). Given that interims hit tomorrow or 29th if previous dates are repeated, it is a very tight ship if the news is bad and nothing has leaked, even 2nd or 3rd degrees away. And unlike the results of a seismic survey, all the negotiations have created 10s of insiders and market noise/ rumour. Yet we hold up well above 200p. (touches wood again). Fingers Crossed! Banzai!

Agree Millario.

PJT12 - I think if AB could speak he would probably say: 'I've told you we are actively negotiating a deal, anything more than that is going to be too market sensitive.' The fact that they are no longer razzing us on LinkedIn and Twitter could be viewed as a good thing.

I would say there's a difference between razzing retail investors on Twitter and making things happen with other oilers. Ithaca team will be desperate to make a flip. They are Incentivised to deal at any price due to options construction.

There was quite a good podcast I heard the other day with the CEO of Orcadian, who was talking about the impossibility of predicting the timing of a farm-out. It seems also the deal dynamics (the split of who gets what) would suggest a buyers market. We still have the rest of the year - 3 and a half good months before JOG misses its target. Personally I had hoped for news by now but I am still hopeful.

Out of interest, if the interims hit sometime this month, and we get even stronger language - say: 'serious contract negotiations with several committed parties, expecting a deal by year end' - but no farm-out, would people on this board stay the course or throw in the towel?

All worries below being said, none of the insiders or recent insiders are selling - not even RL who has a giant chunk. And the market (?) is keeping it around 250p whenever it dips (touch wood). The institutions are all still in too otherwise on such a small volume you'd see it in price action (or RNS disclosure).

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/443329/oil-boss-appeals-to-truss-to-incentivise-spending-to-reinvigorate-north-sea/ - this is what I was thinking of. Key quote:

"But Mr Brown believes more needs to be done to increase investor confidence in the basin, and has urged policy makers to get “innovative”.

He said: “We need additional investment in the oil and gas sector in order to shore up our own domestic energy supply. Whilst the Energy Profits Levy does include nuances to increase investment, we need to go further than that and increase investor confidence. The Government must find innovative ways of encouraging investment in the sector, to lower bills for households in the long-term and increase our own domestic energy sector."

No reason something else could not be announced alongside the licensing on 20th. Pre-discussions were supposed to have happened with JRM and Kwasi.

Yep - I had caught the license point. I was wondering if there might be something else announced as part of the 'energy package seeking to bolster energy security and curb soaring costs.' Wishful thinking perhaps.

"LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - No details of an oil and gas licensing round in the British North Sea will emerge until after the official mourning period for Queen Elizabeth ends on Sept. 20, a spokesman for the North Sea Transition Authority said on Monday.

New British Prime Minister Liz Truss, prior to the Queen's passing, said last week the country would announce a new licensing round for more than 100 oil and gas North Sea exploration licences this week as part of an energy package seeking to bolster energy security and curb soaring costs."

Perhaps there's something else in this announcement that effects JOG. Even the mourning situation. A farm-in announcement would raise merry hell with environmentalists...

Quite. But there has been quite a lot of coverage on Kwasi and Rees Mogg having discrete chats with oil and gas to be able to announce stuff on Day 1. So perhaps we'll get a boost after Liz formally appoints Liz at Balmoral.

She said: "I will deliver a bold plan, to cut taxes and grow our economy. I will deliver on the energy crisis, dealing with people's energy bills, but also the long term issues we have with energy supply."

I suppose I was posting in response to John Briggs - who seems to be reading something into the silence. I was just saying one should not be spooked because JOG haven't updated. The situation is unchanged really from the announcement of the windfall tax. Hodl.

But I agree not terribly insightful.

Whatever spin one might put on it, or tea leaves examined, the silence means nothing. Either close to a deal, expecting a result any day, or partner is delaying and delaying due to political machinations. Or trying to get better terms. Or it's not happening. Who knows.

But I can't resist - in the press today that Zahawi threatening more tax unless they invest in NS... The noose is tightening on forcing the hand to commit to projects in NS.

Also lack of news since late May and no tweets or LinkedIn posts could well be due to being at the vinegar strokes on a deal (remember Benitz bought more stock then?) and not wanting to give the game away? They could be guffing us along with PR if not.

It may not happen but we have to be close to the denouement of the story?!?!!?

"It is reported this morning that Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng are to hold crisis talks with offshore industry bosses tomorrow, and they will demand a breakdown of firms' expected revenues and payouts as well as latest investment plans."

There has been chat about taxing majors more and not independents. Rosebank and Jackdaw are off to the races. Cambo not sure. JOG is the next biggest field and green, plus in the CNS. I can't see how JOG is not explicitly coming up in these meetings. "latest investment plans" - seeing as the government can seemingly do what it pleases in how it configures taxation on the sector, won't these meetings end up putting pressure on the industry to farm-out things like JOG and ORCA?

Article in Bloomberg saying how Shell saying UK needs to get things going in NS or face imports with much higher emissions. Shell looking at things 'around their infrastructure'. Not expecting Jackdaw to be the only thing in the pipeline. Come on JOG!!!!

To add to that I think there are other newsflow items that might reduce the gap between present SP and post farm-in SP.

Should the various plans get progressed, and further details on electrification get released, getting JOG ever more 'oven-ready' (sorry), that would give SP a further boost.

Also not sure if we've become French quite yet; my experience in corporate world is that during the summer although weeks get taken off here and there, frenetic activity is possible in periods of potential transformational change.

Jackdaw got the investment decision today from Shell. Jackdaw is a key enabler for CNS electrification, and would be sharing infrastructure with GBA.

If you Google 'jackdaw North sea electrification', you'll find a pdf from Shell on the project. Page 38 details the NS electrification plan being developed with Harbour, total and BP which they 'hope to release in 2022'.

I think this is great news and showing money (£500m) pouring into NS and CNS in particular. Looking at it simply the announcement has cut electricifcation costs of any potential GBA development.

Any idea what's causing this upward movement?

My understanding is that as it's classed as a 'money bill' it's as good as through. Maximum 1 month until law, as per parliamentary procedure. It's done.

For anyone wondering about this after the Energy Voice article, Capex related to electrification IS covered in the tax super-deduction.

"...capital expenditure incurred on oil-related activities. It also includes certain operating and leasing expenditure. The allowance will be calculated in the same way as the investment allowance for the existing supplementary charge. However, it is both more immediate and more generous, as it will be available to companies at the point of investment. It is also worth emphasising that qualifying expenditure can be used on the decarbonisation of upstream activities, including electrification." (Hansard)

The amendment from the SNP was to put in the bill itself (rejected as per Energy Voice article). Gov guided that although not in the bill, it was covered. Click the link below if you want to investigate the language surrounding this (in Hansard).

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-07-11/debates/494EDB6D-EEC5-45D2-97F1-009F2398D942/Energy(OilAndGas)ProfitsLevyBill