Member Info for Greener101

I bought 10% more on my position today, on the basis that the last significant news event took 24hrs to sink in and then there was a massive move up. 22nd Sept (interims) was a down day in fact, and then it went up >50%.

I was over eager when I bought after investment allowance was kept, and took off that little trade 24hrs later.

potential for positive news flow from Gov is there, and also if Directors are 'certain' for Q1, perhaps an RNS of director deals may come soon? If so we are riding up on the rollercoaster.

I wish I shared your optimism that it's fighting over a deal! Maybe, but probably a bit of race to the bottom to avoid WFT. Finncap raised their price target by 15%.

John Briggs - delay is a pain and not as good as deal. But news tends to pendulum - I don't think there's room for another fiscal disappointment, but there's room for newsflow that a floor is introduced to WFT, and positive reaction from Brindex etc.

'Advanced commercial discussions'. Multiple counterparties involved - if it's a consortium looking to offset OPEX in CNS and avoid WFT, it's painful but it makes sense to take time. It's agonising but no-one said mulitbagging was easy. The wait makes sense! GLA

RL was a geologist, smart enough to spot the potential value in the license, and bring in the initial money. The team beneath are all NS veterans. My take is that he was not best to deliver a complex project like Buchan and had done his time. Ex-ithaca lot are oilmen capable of much greater than Buchan. Though I am also unnerved by no deal yet, Rollo is right re possible timelines and patience is required. No-one will be keen to announce right after WFT too as it seems like an endorsement. The deal will come - it may not be as juicy as pre-WFT mark II (I believe Mark I was good for us) but it will be enough to make this rocket. GLA

This re-rating down, lack of deal and possibility of a mega deal is low due to WFT. Risk reward is off.

If you put a best effort deal at 600pish, it becomes a multibagger again in the mid hundreds. I'll buy again then as I agree with Dick that there will be a deal of some kind, just not a dream pre-WFT.

Thanks troubled seller. I am still scratching my head why no deal yet. Another numbers-free guess - I don't know how the investment allowance is accounted for, I wouldn't think on a cash basis, nor could you simply allocate anticipated spend years ahead to claim it. I expect it's when you incur the costs and reasonably as the work the pay for occurs.

If a counterparty's FY is April to April, they may feel they can squeeze JOG until January, watch the share price drop and get best possible terms. I mean if it were you, wouldn't you ring Les Thomas and say: 'sorry mate, I know we've put loads of work in on this, and we really wanted to partner with you, but WFT has screwed our numbesr and the board won't let it go ahead. etc etc'. Then sign a deal in January and account for as much cost as possible to offset WFT in that tax year.

Having said all that, JOG's cash burn is pretty good and they can last well past April 2023 without diluting. If the management hold their nerve, they could tolerate a drop in the price - knowing the counterparty will run out of time.

Tax invalidates a buyout, as discussed.

Hopefully the last minutia of the contract is being haggled on, boards finally resigned to doing it even thought their is a risk WFT is still in place in 2028, but 'what option do we have'?

Time to cr@p or get off the pot!

GLA

If someone was to agree a takeover with JOG, surely that investment would not be from pre-WFT money?

I know AIM doesn't have the same rules as main market but if someone made an offer for JOG, wouldn't the management team have to RNS it even if they didn't like it?

Hahaha. Never thought I'd be seen as a woke warrior! I'm normally the one being reprimanded. I agree with some of your points Dick, and understand your frustrations. But of late it's got rather extreme and long-winded so I had to speak up. Thanks for your comments on NPV.

Regarding JOG I am feeling somewhat downbeat. Was the extra 10% worth it Jeremy? Laffer curve and all that...

Pure guess. Could easily be the CFO. I figure Benitz has no experience of running an operational O&G producing business. He'll have shot the lights out personally if he brought in all the investors and made an FO happen. If so time to move over for Oil guys to take over. Gives credence to my prediction it'll be JOG leading with mulitiple partners. Again pure guess.

MPO818 - Dick's long rambles about how UK people deserve the energy crisis, hoping for 6 cold winters, have absolutely nothing to do with JOG. At best it's indulgent, lazy thinking. At worst it's plain nasty. Do you know any nurses, or people working night shifts in shops? Life ain't pretty at the bottom. I draw the line at casual racism calling the PM Indian in a derogatory way. Keep that stuff in the pub with those who also want to see the world the way it suits them.

Regarding management salaries. Highly risky micro-stocks require salaries to incentivise a career path that is high risk. Benitz and Gibbs were ex-bankers and would be paid vastly more had they stayed in that career. Pay peanuts get monkeys.

I am surprised sometimes by how entitled people are. This is a high risk, multi-bagger. What did you expect, free money? If you think the management have been negligent in the story so far you should say when and why, and sell up.

If it doesn't happen, it's perfectly possible, it just didn't happen. No need to hate on everyone because you lost money. Just smile and walk away from the table.

1. Management best in class
2. Options terms pay on any deal, they are all desperate to close anything
3. Management salaries are totally normal.
4. Options have vested shares not cash; they all have massive shareholdings that are only generous if they sell.
5. JOG is a net beneficiary of WFT; borderline uneconomic fields are given a chance. Remember Equinor walked away?
6. Sunak is British: born in Southampton and lived here all his life - educated Winchester, Oxford. His family are originally ****stani via Kenya anyway. I respect your stock analysis Dick, but can you do the political rants elsewhere? It's starting to feel a little sinister.

Jeez.... Dick, why don't you tell us what you really think?

I find it hard to assess meaningfulness of pre-WFT protestations by oilcos.

Their duty to shareholders is to true and maximise the difficulty of government to impose the taxes. So they must kick and scream pre-budget to try and get the best deal they can. What that means in terms of actual damage done I don't know.

Great link. Thanks for confirming that.

The majors are pressured by shareholders and ESG warriors like CEO Larry Fink (who by the way doesn't worry about energy poverty too much) to reduce fossil fuel production as a percentage of their portfolios.

Thus they are shedding assets like no-bodys business, you can find outfits that are PE/ hedgie-backed hoovering up stuff who prefer money to ESG agenda.

Majors like complex big-hitter projects with high flow rates. Not a lot of that left really in NS. I reckon they'll just suck it up and pay.

It's a bit of a gamble, but I think chancellor will feel he'll either get a bunch more taxes, or a bunch more investment. What he wants to avoid is massive lightly taxed divvies.

The majors (BP, Shell, total, Cinpoec) active in the NS can take the 75%, in fact they could take 100% and still generate huge global profits. BP and Shell are actively keen to be seen as 'nice' in their home jurisdiction. They will deliver the bulk of $14bn.

The independents are crucified by WFT 75%, as much of the profits come from North Sea. But they are generating huge pre-tax profits (in spite of hedging reducing revenues). So they will be forced to divert profits into investment, drilling, improving infrastructure. They will dream that in the future taxes may go down. Meanwhile big salaries and bonuses at the top for running ever bigger operations.

This is brilliant for JOG, in the future that is an FO with Ithaca at the lead (I believe post FO Benitz may quit to spend the money and the COO Richard Smith may take over as CEO), independents chuck in their cash, avoid WFT, and probably take an OPEX benefit if they share nearby infrastructure too.

I think if that were true he'd want to score political 'brownie points' by 'closing the loophole', and announce a reduction.

My view is he wants to stiff the majors who can take it (nay want it to aid ESG creds in UK), and bully the BRINDEX and independents to maximise investment in UK NS.

He will raise and extra 14Bn and force UK energy independence. This is clever really.

Agree. I added just now

10% added to headline but no change to investment allowance. Buy Buy Buy

One of the challenges is to disassociate JOGs FO chances from a generally very downbeat economic mood. If the investment allowance is left pretty much untouched the rationale for FO is still very strong.

I'm expecting 10% extra on WFT, and no change to investment allowance.

Is anyone expecting worse? (or better)