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https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-lawmakers-approve-windfall-tax-oil-gas-producers-2022-07-11/

I also will refrain from more prattle, but this interesting - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFkXqlomgtg

Live discussion of bill, with reference to small companies etc, electrification

Good to hear from you dickupham. Bit of a nothingburger IMHO, back in May this fella took some chips off the table. He spent the money on a giant smoker for the back garden and 100,000 NS kippers. He's a geologist with a big holding - still in the game. Could 'a sold a lot more in all the fuss, decent volume moments and doubling of the last few months.
Fingers crossed

I'm no expert on parliamentary procedure but won't we know what the windfall tax is at the end of today? Assuming it's voted on, and passed, I'd guess it would be time to cr@p or get off the pot? Delays are bad for all parties now as advantageous tax environment for investment would pass, and first oil is post Levy anyway?

I'm hoping for news this week personally

Thanks for info Afish. A quick check on the locations of those rigs is that they're about 60/70 miles south-south east of GBA. ETAP uses the forties pipeline that's in the JOG presentation.

The cable would landfall at Peterhead, north of Aberdeen and roughly west-south west of GBA by 75 miles. It would be 125 miles long.

As in the management presentations - GBA is slap-bang in the centre of CNS and relatively close to shore. Very easily could be a part of this plan. Hard not to see how this isn't really positive for JOG, the economics of the project re CAPEX / OPEX.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-oil-sector-secures-changes-windfall-tax-seeks-more-amid-govt-chaos-2022-07-07/

Could be the last week or so to get in a a decent price...

Zahawi has form on being anti-windfall tax for NS oilers:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-slammed-backing-struggling-oil-25896245

As a new man he can adjust the tax with less lost face. I also think without the scandal that beset Sunak he has political capital.

There's another article in the FT today about UK potentially cutting of Gas supplies to Europe in an energy emergency. The gov is prioritizing UK energy security and this windfall tax bill will be massaged to make NS investment work.

Maybe. But the inevitable softening of the mood music on the windfall tax would propel the price much higher. That could come anytime. As could the farm out.

Re sells, I'd also add for every seller there's a buyer so I agree volume is a much better indicator. Industry and government will come to a compromise, if indeed this has negatively affected JOGs prospects (which it may not have).

As I said, not just farmout, buy out, but improved mood music announcement will blast the SP higher again.

Re motivation, yes I want it to go up, and for people to buy it. I am very long - and I think it's a great punt. Not sure there is anyone on here who wants SP to go down, how can you short it? Amusing to see Dick get (unfairly) accused of this the other day. Come back Dick all is forgiven!

A positive alteration to the windfall tax would be a piece of newsflow that would end any possibility of getting back in or even topping up at a decent price.

Agree alsoppc. One caveat - with ex-ithaca the team are now very capable of doing an acquisition of a producing asset. I don't know how the stock would react. I would guess producing assets have tanked after the windfall tax and some will be put off by the tax environment (and if this is it with Tories what if Lab get in!). Tobacco has thrived for long periods in a punitive tax environment. If they buy well who knows.

But agree it's a binary deal - that's why I'm in anyway. I think medium term we're still an excellent option. If windfall really has spoked NS investment, it will force Rushi's hand to soften it. If someone wants to offset profit for next 5 years they may be forced to farm-in.

Agree Dick's posts are missed. And sarky comments. Who else can be arsed to check the independents balance sheets/ P/L projections to see who may put up. Unfortunately not me.

Quite resilient to the recent sell off, JOG isn't it. Anyone cover HTG? sold off with the market since 10th June, trading statement on 30th June. Put on a cheeky 2 week punt targeting that. I know wrong board but HTG board is dead. Wondered if any JOGers might fancy it.

Thanks. Capex plans are key aren't they. Perhaps the Ithaca IPO door closes but others open. Given the markets the latter may have been delayed substantially - but the windfall tax creates an urgency which is attractive to my thinking!!!!

Paywall - any way you can quote the relevant text?

Told you JOG fever 'd be back!

All looking rather positive. Fingers crossed for the big numbers. With the right deal.... could happen

Perspective of Tax Paying Entity (Farminee): Combined with other tax allowances, currently a tax-paying oil & gas company in the UK that invests in a project that generates no revenue (a completely failed project) will receive a cash-tax benefit of 75p for every pound invested – reducing the effective capex burden and risks of investing in the UK upstream oil & gas sector. Assuming the capex is applied to a successful (taxable) project (allowing the supplementary charge allowance to be applied), increases the cash-tax benefit of every pound invested to 91.25p. Essentially, we expect entities that are paying taxes on UK oil & gas profits to be looking very hard for ways to invest more capital into UK oil & gas projects. We would suggest that the circa $1.4 billion in capital expenditure required for Phase 1 of the GBA project (inclusive of contingencies) would seem more like a solution to reduce taxes than a burden – all extremely positive for the prospects of farming out that development.

Bang for the buck analysis: Oil & gas companies typically make capital allocation decisions based on a “bang for the buck” or return on investment analysis. Under the new UK oil & gas tax regime, tax paying entities investing in new projects will realise inordinately high returns on investment from the perspective that the actual economic capital invested (and at risk) will represent only 25% of the nominal amount invested (net of the immediate tax gain of 75p per pound invested). Therefore, for such entities, we believe that returns on invested capital in new projects should be exceptionally compelling on a bang for the buck basis. Downside protection: Oil & gas companies are particularly focused on downside protection and the new UK oil & gas tax regime increases downside protection for tax-paying UK oil & gas companies, while also reducing the gains from high oil & gas prices. This is seen is Figure 1.

After today's wobble and the oddly political sidetrack we've been down today, expect the rabid JOG fever to return when most punters realise the structure of this tax is in some ways favourable to us 'LTHs'. Bravo to the JOGaneers and all who ride with them.

FT article just now - 'Separately, the Institute for Fiscal Studies criticised Sunak for making the investment allowances in the North Sea too generous so that heavily loss making projects would be viable after tax — doing no good to the environment or taxpayers.'

Alsoppc - if you agree Sunak has had his hand forced here, and is very clear on the economic angle (he's not illiterate), you'd guess if prices drop next year he'll remove the tax once the political storm is clear (although I'm sure it won't). I don't think the gov would keep the tax if the OP drops. My take is that Sunak is trying to minimise potential damage to the sector whilst satisfying political expediencies. I think oil cos are far better to put the money to work.

PS I don't think the majors were ever interested in JOG. production rates/ size etc mean it's a project for independents.

$24 a barrel at 40% I mean! sorry. Still the point stands