Member Info for Gray1

It's a bit of a convoluted explanation.

If we take the lowest figure $4/5/tonne and a bit extra for fine chrome could that be part of the higher $9/tonne they mention later on? Then JLP get 70% of this?

Increase in Chrome price makes little difference unless significant on the plus side decrease has little effect. It's nowhere near 4% closer to 2% so I am lost with that one.

6th June 2023

Seisnav,

"§ Under the terms of the Agreement, Jubilee's potential earnings per tonne of chrome concentrate produced, represent a five-fold increase over existing toll treatment terms (toll agreements delivering a 4% margin at today's prices)."

RNS last year toll margin 4%. Some of the new agreements could be 5 fold increase. Although he has said 15% so four fold increase. What is your take on the 4% margin on $300/tonnes $12/tonne or am I missing something?

Edzi,

A little earlier I did a very rough calculation for FY25 with expected eps and sp. Only rough but there is definitely some uplift in the sp if they hit their forecasts. It will just be a little slower. We will have a better idea when the financials come out and see what Chrome delivered in the second half.

Hi Edzi,

I originally though 12k earlier in the year but as Roan dragged on I thought that was ambitious and it isn't that long ago myself and seisnav were discussing at 8/10k. Our lower expectations are same as their higher one.

I don't think it helps them keep talking about 25k/ year when they are nowhere near it at present. People latch on to that figure and think it is just around the corner it isn't there is still a lot of work to do.

It isn't long ago I said copper would be slow and it wouldn't be until the second half of the year when we start to see some progress. Gotreal said I was being negative. I think duplicitious was mentioned by someone. Well here we are.

I thought the RNS was worded pretty well and I have agreed with you when you tried to tell Mikie it is not that they keep missing deadlines it is how they have communicated it and some contributors here still didn't get that.

Roan was always the starting gate to this new copper strategy but the delays have pushed the ramp up of it back. Some didn't get that just saw it was producing and everything could be forgiven as now it really will take off quickly.

It is a little slower than even I originally expected and I was always accused of being the negative one. However this is the first copper target they will probably hit.

Edzi I think they are being more realistic and possibly more cautious with their forecasts that's not a bad thing. I expect them to beat the Chrome forecast as for copper see how it progresses through the year.

It wasn't long ago Leon said they would comfortably double the copper production next year. At the time I wasn't sure what "comfortably" meant.

Now we know the production figures for this year are 3.4k so doubling is 6.8k. I suppose the upper figure of nearly 8k is "comfortably" doubling it so the clues were there.

Always liked the Chrome they have done a great job there Mikie and like you I think it will do well next year.

Chrome took a bit to get going and Copper is following the same pattern.

Copper still has Sable upgrade to finish.

Looks like there is some additional work to do at M & G along with the modules for upgrading the copper. All takes time and money.

Then you have more artisan miners to procure could be more dilution or they may have the cash to pay for it we don't know.

Throughput to output we don't know and then of course the IRH deal if and when this gets going.

The 25k target seems to be the tipping point when the money starts to really roll in and then things can progress faster and more easily financed.

Looks like the sp is dropping a little but it will bounce back as the next FY progresses if they hit their forecasts.

Happydays,

Chrome is the jewel in the crown at the moment they clearly state Thutse 2 is on track to complete end of this quarter. I expect the average gross margin for chrome after a very low margin in the first quarter will probably come in around $20/tonne.

This new financial year I expect it to be higher if Chrome maintains its price. We shall see when we get the full year accounts. I will be looking at what the average margin was for the second half this will gives us a good idea what we can expect for FY25.

Also just to add Chrome was in excess of 1.5 million tonnes this FY. Next years forecast is 1.65million. They are not that faraway from that now and Thutse2 is expected to be online by the end of this first quarter so I expect them to beat their forecast. 400k in last quarter is 1.6 million.

Everyone has asked for better communications I think this is one of the best worded RNS JLP have ever produced. Much more realistic far less vague and not leaving you trying to work out what they mean. I would prefer they didn't make 25k forecasts until they are a bit closer to being capable of producing it.

Just a quick look at the forecasts and a quick calculation for next year gross margin could be anywhere from $60-$80 dollars. sp of between 8p-16p on an eps of between 8 to 12. Very rough calculation as there are lots of variables we will know more as the production and year unfolds.

See Gotreal I am not negative just realistic.

Disappointed no financials on Chrome not long to wait though.

Strategy to focus on Chrome at the expense of pgms is good.

Copper forecast not surprised. Roan has only just come on line and the throughput compared to output is still key and it maybe Leon has learnt a lesson and decided to under promise and over deliver. Clearly a lot of work still to do.

The share issue for Project G has been announced previously.

I have said for months that the IRH deal is dependent on the performance of Roan and it isn't quite there yet but looks promising. Unlikely to see any IRH modules in production this financial year now unless it is in the last financial quarter so much for fast track.

Whilst the RNS maybe be disappointing for some I think it is much more realistic than previous ones.

Still a bit of capital outlay to go yet as at first glance there is some extra in there that hadn't been previously mentioned though so wouldn't be surprised if there is some more dilution this year with the slow build up of Copper hopefully Chrome cash flow can cover it.

"The average chrome revenue per tonne of US$85 (Q4 FY2023: US$86 per tonne) is influenced by the percentage of fixed chrome margin tonnages processed. The increased margins from the new partnership agreements are expected to reflect stronger through the current quarter. The average chrome cost per tonne remained flat at US$75 (Q4 FY2023: US$74 per tonne)."

This is the whole section Seisnav so I took it as he mentions toll margins this is what it refers to but wouldn't argue if he meant Thutse.

"The increased margins from the new partnership agreements are expected to reflect stronger through the current quarter. The average chrome cost per tonne remained flat at US$75 (Q4 FY2023: US$74 per tonne)."

Taken from RNS last year Seisnav.

I see I was expecting Q3 to be around $23 same as Q2 ad Q4 to be same as you $25. I will have a look back felt sure I had read it in an RNS.

Definitely no load shedding is good. Anywhere near $30 and I am happy with that. Just from pgms and Chrome alone we could be looking at clearing around $10 million cash per quarter

As the first quarter is nearly up that would pretty much pay for M & G upgrades. I am only expecting 1500 tonnes from copper in Q1 at the very most so not that much cash yet from there.

The Chrome will buy time for copper to get into it's stride probably from Q3 in this new financial year. Steadily increasing in Q2 from Q1.

Should have also mentioned Thutse 1 hit capacity also in Q2:)

Thanks Seisnav a couple of things in the 3rd Q you have revenue dropping to $90/ ton from the previous quarte of $94 when Chrome has increased by $3. Also you have 52% as tolling and 48% own sourced. Do they have to do 60% toll margin over the year or can they do less?

They also said they had negotiated a better deal on toll margin and that would start to feed into the 2nd Q unfortunately we don't know what that margin is. The chrome price was lower in Q2 than Q1 and we improved margin quite a bit in comparison of course although cost is a little less so offsets some of the lower chrome price.

I originally though we could get $30-$35/tonne margin a few months ago but being more realistic it could probably be in the $23-$30/tonne range when Thutse 2 comes on line if Chrome remains between $285/$300. Any higher and it could possibly break the $30/tonne mark. What do you think?

No problem I thought you may have missed it interesting one about the insider dealing CEO.

Many years ago I worked for a chemical company and we received some chemicals on special pallets delivered from a Chinese company. First time delivered everything was fine. Second time different pallets the pallet truck we had was intrinsically safe so could only pick up the specially designed pallets so couldn't use them.

We let the Chinese know wouldn't believe us adamant they had sent the right pallets. Next load went to Immingham and we took pictures of them being unloaded sent them to the Chinese. No response for 7 days then they told us they would be sending a free deliver.

The owner of the pallet yard where they got the supply from was the brother-in-law of the harbour master. They were swapping the pallets on the dock and putting cheaper ones on. The owner had been arrested and the harbour master was on the run when they got back to us. Real life you don't need to make it up:)

Onwards and upwards Mikie. If I was willing to put more money in than I have done at present I would be buying at these levels also Mikie but I believe I will make a profit eventually. Despite what you may think of my posts and at times our opinions may differ we still want the same thing after all.

Ardbeggar his original point was about what was being said on this board was affecting sentiment and investors potentially investing I said in has no affect what your saying is completely different. Gotreal then changed tack to include other things which affect sentiment I don't disagree with that or what you are saying about insider dealing that has no correlation to chatboards affecting sentiment.

Edzi,

There are definitely some on here that don't read what is written and just put their spin on it to suit their preconceived ideas.

I will make a gentleman's agreement with you. You don't post on anything I say and I won't post on anything you say. Give the board a rest from it. Fair enough?