Member Info for Gray1

Seisnav, Northern agree all options are possible the longer this goes on.

Mikie I have been saying for over 8 months that the longer the OB1 deal drags on the more it becomes more financially viable to go it alone.

Pack it in Shuvlin. I posted what I thought the financials will be for this year and I was pretty close to last years as well.

No agenda here want to make money. Not my fault JLP keep screwing copper up you need to talk to Leon about that.

Happydays is right It doesn't inspire confidence in a deal when he has said other parties are interested. We shall soon see can't keep putting it off.

Still doing due diligence on it Happydays. Hopefully find out in March. 17 months on from when it was first announced so much for fast track.

Zeus capital quote said broker when I should have said them. Need more coffee.

Happydays they will do well to go over 5k as it stands at the moment with only 4.5 months left and they are probably around 2k now.

Splitting hairs Shuvlin they still wrote it.

"Current projections suggest 8.4kt of copper production for FY25, slightly above the company’s initial guidance of 5.9 – 7.5kt."

Bit ambitious don't you think Shuvlin this is what I am referring to.

Not following you there Shuvlin

We shall see Northern wouldn't be surprised to see a downgrade of copper forecast for this year just like they did last year when it was obvious they should have downgraded back in February but left it until the last couple of months before year end.

What Leon says and what JLP do has had a divergence from reality where copper is concerned. One day Rodders we will be millionaires. Well Leon already is. Wish I could get 1p options.

What they say and what they actually do doesn't usually work out. I will wait for actual results and pay lip service to what they are saying. They have to deliver it is as simple as that. Highly unlikely they will do 8.4k tons of copper this FY according to the broker.

They did 1.4k first 6 months and probably not much for Jan and maybe Feb so to achieve that they would have to do around 6k in 4 months not going to happen and they won't get 5.6K/ton margin either. We shall see in 6 months time or so. See what they forecast soon as well.

MOT LUFC111 nice picture.

Kalan,

We all have our methods for trying to work out value whatever works for you. I like to look at a bit more detail (it is the auditor in me lol).

Everlong

I discounted the IRH deal as it isn't going ahead until March in whatever format it goes in whether original deal, different deal, partner etc.

If it does go ahead there will be a fair amount of cash to come back at least the amount spent on acquiring OB1 so far plus some other costs as well. How they treat it in the accounts will depend what it has been spent on.

There won't be any significant production from it anyhow until Jan 26 that gives them 9 months to acquire, build and commission any. I know they have said they can do it quicker but that hasn't always worked out so far.

Chrome is a tough one to work out I remember a while back we both looked at it and still couldn't figure it out!!

It is a bit finger in the air going beyond gross profit but I used last years figures so it is a bit more accurate using those of course many variables glad we are in the same ball park and we were both pretty close last year for gross profit. I have bit a bit more ambitious with the net.

Expecting first 6 months to be similar to last time maybe a tad more on gross profit. What do you think?

Comparing last FY to this FY:

Chrome 2 mill tons @ 12 (12)/ton gross margin is $24 mill gross profit

pgms 36k @ $300 ($300)/ton is $10.8 mill gross profit

Copper 5k @ 2.5 (2.7k) gross profit is $12.5 mill gross profit

Total gross profit $47.3 mill

Less admin costs etc $25 mill ($24.3 mill)

Ebitda $22.3 mill

Last years finance, adjustments, investment revenue was -3.2 mill

$19.1 minus tax at 30% gives a net profit of $13.3 mill

eps 0.43 cents pe of 8 is 3.5 cents, current pe is 23 gives 10 cents using 1.2 dollar conversion sp between 2.9p and 8.3p

Figures in brackets are last years actual figures. I have copper slightly lower margin because of extra costs associated with new deal and I have gone for 5k copper. I have erred on the low side here considering JLPs copper track record.

Here you go Gotreal now you have a go see who is nearest at the end of the financial year.

Always liked what they have done with Chrome Mikie and if pgms keep moving higher that is an added bonus especially if they could process the stockpile they have built up.

Northern,

The Chrome price has dropped which will have had a negative impact on margin but some of that will be offset by Thutse you are right. Last year gross margin was $12. I think it will be in the region of $8 to $10 for the first 6 months but the second half will be better but overall not much different from the margin last year when we had much higher prices but more toll processing. Just my take on it see what it runs out at for first 6 months soon.

Hence my high production low margin comment. $2 mill tons at $12 gross margin is fine with me even better if they can exceed production and margin.

Same for me Shuvlin neither buying or selling. Don't think the deal is that great in terms of profit but this maybe more of what to expect in the future similar to chrome higher production lower margin. Just have to wait it out for another 12-18 months see where we are.

Northern Shark it has no value until when and if they process it or they could sell it with the other low grade tailings they have now decided they aren't going to process.