Member Info for Gray1

First of all I have no idea who is selling but surely if this was a mass sell off everyday then the sp would probably be less than 3p by now. It appears to be managed at around 4.5p but what do I know.

Seis is probably right with Jupiter being some of it.

Agree Kalan if copper goes to $13k and IRH deal fires up quickly once signed off then who knows bit to go yet though.

I know ETYPE and you think it will continue to stay that high for the next 1 to 5 years?

Don't want to burst your bubble marineclark but the 25K copper will be a mix of cathode and concentrate so they wouldn't realise that amount on todays prices (of course copper price could go up).

Also taking your $250 mill of sales JLP will do well to achieve a 20% net profit margin most companies would be delighted with that. $50 mill net profit convert to £s and you are looking at around £40 mill or 1.33p eps on todays amount of shares. pe of 10 is 13.3p. This is just for copper there is chrome and pgms to add to this and the pe ratio could also be a lot higher.

Of course net profit could be higher (or lower) too many unknowns at the moment. I don't take the 300k too seriously let's get 25k first and then see where they are.

Just to add to my earlier post on cash if the IRH deal goes ahead then JLP will have a further $5 mill plus to come back into the coffers that is two more mines at the current going rate.

I have added to my position today soaks up some of the sales:)

I agree Seisnav and they have got a better deal with cash. Cash is always king:). They would also have had to issue around 45 mill shares which would have been sold and would have been a negative drag on the sp. Hopefully they will do the same with the other two they are looking at if the sp remains subdued.

Good morning everyone,

Great news paying for project G in cash well done JLP.

Looking back at the financials current assets (including cash) minus current liabilities is $17 mill.

Sable is $9 mill, M & G upgrades $5 mill and cash payment for G is $2.5 mill (including the extra $0.5 mill). Of course this is not all immediately payable but will come out gradually throughout FY25.

Total $16.5 mill so JLP are currently in a position to do all this with what they currently have. I did mention in a previous post that JLP had the cash to pay for G without issuing shares.

FC24 JLP generated FCF of $17 mill. FC25 should be better than that. How much better we don't know. Assuming $20 mill (conservative estimate). This will easily pay for 2 x 50k capacity modules and 2 more artisan mines with cash to spare and would go a long way to completing everything needed to be put in place to achieve 25k/year copper target.

Then there is the IRH deal on top.

I think they will hit high end of the forecast 7k and possibly beyond it. How much beyond it is anyones guess but I will be happy if they hit 10k with the current feedstock they have.

As for 26/27 will depend on the IRH deal and it will be a few months before we hear any progress on that then if it goes ahead how fast they can order, build and commission the modules. Not convinced they can do 4 in 12 months though with the track record on Roan but again I will be happy to be wrong.

Seisnav

Scroll down to FY24 and you will see the column entitled other at $3.9 mill in the EBITDA row this is where I think you will find the missing amount for pgms.

Good morning everyone,

Seisnav the pgms profit of £10.9 mill is in the gross profit of $36 mill. The gross profit was down on my estimate of $40-45 mill bit disappointing.

Sales have increased by $35 mill but costs of sales has increased by $36 mill JLP need to keep on top of costs there are some big increases some will be beyond their control but it is a concern.

Chrome at $12/tonnes but if you remove the $9.9 mill from chrome costs would be about $18/tonne so not bad. PGMS struggling but not unexpected. Don't get the the two Thutse sites to come online in November don't remember a Thutse 3 being announced or are they counting Thutse 1 and then Thutse 2 as 2 sites when Thutse 2 is online bit confusing that bit.

As Northern pointed out more than 50% of copper was concentrate so margin of around $2.7k/tonne isn't bad. Plus 600 tonnes of Copper to sell also.

Gross profit is 18% of sales but net is only 3% of sales that is poor but there were $8.8 mill of finance costs in there plus other stuff.

eps of 0.17 a pe of 8/12 is 1.2/2p we are currently trading on a pe of 27 and I don't expect much from the Q1 if they only put production in without financials for the quarter.

The cash position is good at $19mill but that includes and increase in borrowing of $9mill. Hope they use some of that cash to buy project G as they would have to issue over 40 mill shares now. I also wish they wouldn't keep banging on about 25k copper we are a long way from that just yet. I was going to buy some more but will wait a bit just yet. If I miss the bottom c'est la vie.

Good morning everyone,

Back from my hols and lots gone off and lots to do in FY25.

CFO gone and Dr Khoza coming onboard it happens hope they get a new CFO who can keep the reins on Leon and maintain the realistice RNS.

Things I took out of the latest RNS

Secure power supply is excellent and two more artisan mines on the horizon preferably without dilution at this sp.

$9 million spend on Sable over the next 10 months. Wasn't expecting that. Where did that come from?

IRH deal more due diligence OB1 waste to be tested through Roan before this is complete. No chance of any copper from any modules resulting from this for this FY. Is there becoming a point where this can be financed by JLP themselves?

For example 4 modules at 2K/month once built and producing, 24k/year at 4k cost, sell at 10k is $144 mill gross margin per year. $50 mill cost easily paid back or am I missing something? By the time due diligence in Jan25 is done Roan and Sable possibly could finance loan repayments especially by the end of FY25 until modules built and producing. Just a thought.

Do you mean Roan Edzi? I think Thutse 2 has always been on for this quarter.

They screwed up with the reporting of Roan and from the RNS with the forecasts in it looks like they have learnt their lesson. We can only see how it goes from here there is lots to do so we can look forward to lots of news in the forthcoming months.

Edzi,

We aren't as far away as we were see how the next 9 and a bit months go with copper now as the first quarter is almost up.

Thutse 2 due to be completed this quarter Edzi from last RNS but not critical if it overruns a little as their forecast for Chrome is 1.6 million tonnes and as they did 400k in Q4 FY24 it isn't going to adversely impact on Chrome production it will only enhance it when complete.

Nelson summed it up well in an earlier post regarding how the FD should report to the market and leave Leon to get on with implementing the copper strategy.

I was going to write OB1 Jonah:)

Sable is currently being upgraded whether it will be finished this quarter I don't know but it should be well on its way.

Maybe the IRH deal or something like it could be a way of getting into the copper in the Congo Edzi but we are a long way from that at the moment.

I am just a bit cautious regarding copper Mikie for the first quarter as Sable is undergoing the upgrade. Roan only really got going at the back end of August so will ramp up during September and then there was the impact of power cuts so I'm not expecting too much in Q1.

So it may look as though copper hasn't really turned a corner to some in Q1. However once Sable upgrade finished and Roan running then we will see improvements in copper production as you say.

Seisnav I was always a bit wary about the IRH deal why don't we do it ourselves but have changed my opinion on it now. I didn't appreciate just how much copper tailings there was out there particularly when they started mentioning how many artisan mines there were as well that got me more positive about the fast tracking of copper through the IRH deal without it costing them anything initially.

Just a shame Roan took so long to get going. No reason why they shouldn't be in a position to announce some modules on this soon they have been testing the tailings for long enough.

The tailings are already secured for the IRH deal Nelson just have to build the modules and decide where to put them. They have already done a huge amount of testing on them. No capital, cash to be repaid that has been committed already in the deal. I believe the go ahead for this deal has always been dependant on Roan completing.

Whereas to fill Roan and Sable they need more artisan mines and then modules to build more capital outlay but you are right a better return.

Mikie always tries to look on the more optimistic side Frog but I don't see where he has said anything wrong there bit harsh that comment.

Not sure about quarterlies before final year Mikie because of Roan delay I'm not overly optimistic about copper for the first quarter. I don't mind final first and then quarterlies and drop an IRH module or two in the quarterlies that would be nice.

We might see a few more shares than 20 mill for the purchase of 51% of project G issued as it depends on the sp agreed and we are a bit lower now than when it was first announced but it is no big deal.

It looks like Leon would like to get his hands on more artisan mines before deciding where the modules for M & G are going to go and then of course there is the upgrades for M & G prior to this. Lots to do going to be a busy year for them.

I would like to hear something on IRH next Mikie. No capital outlay cash already paid out repaid back into JLPs coffers and an free uprade to copper production in the second half of the financial year.

Good morning everyone,

FY24 will be similar to FY23 that is past it is all about FY25 now.

When I posted my long diatribe about FCF Buttermilk responded about timelines for the work to be done.

In reply to that whilst timelines are important to hit the work to be done it isn't as critical now. Whereas before Roan and Sable copper production was affected whilst upgrades were done. This is why I thought the last but one RNS was good because they didn't give any timelines their forecasts were realistic as they were based on what we have now.

Therefore if timelines slip on IRH modules, M & G modules etc. I don't believe it is critical as it won't adversely affect copper production forecast and therefore they won't be coming back to shareholders in April next year revising them down.

Thutse 2 will only enhance Chrome production, IRH, M & G upgrades etc will only enhance copper production. I expect Chrome and pgms to hit forecasts throughout the year and copper after a slow start this first quarter will gradually improve throughout the year.

Buttermilk you are right there has been a lot of money and dilution spent on getting copper to where it is today with very little return so far and there could be more dilution along the way to push copper along more this financial year. However...

Looking at capital expenditure for this year we know any IRH modules are at no capital cost and there is some cash outlay JLP have committed to be returned to them under that deal. There maybe some outstanding capital payments for Sable, Thutse 2 and Roan still to pay.

Looking at FCF for each quarter just for Chrome and pgms alone (I will come back to copper). We are looking at between $10-$12.5 mill EBITDA per quarter. Depreciation and amortisation don't reduce cash. Only Interest and Tax do this assume a 30% reduction there will be some capital offset on some tax at least. You are looking at $7-8.5 mill per quarter FCF.

It now depends how well this cash is managed. Leon has stated he wants to acquire more artisan mines to fill up Roan and Sable. The first 6 months FCF from only these two operations will provide $14-17 mill FCF enough to complete work at M & G and bring onboard 4 to 6 artisan mines.

If they do the above in the first 6 months of this financial year and identify where they need the modules for M & G then the second half FCF will finance 2 x 50k/month modules and potentially another mine or two without having to dilute.

Copper we know Roan is capable of doing 9k per year as Leon has stated. Assuming 1k first quarter and being conservative 1.7k per quarter for the rest of the year. That is 6.1k for the year at the lower end of forecast from Roan alone. Some of this will go to Sable to be refined further and Sable can process some of its own feedstock. Let's assume only 2k/year resulting in 8.1k for the year top end of forecasts.

Assume 2.5k gross margin per tonne (again cautious). This is a further $20 mill EBITDA using a 30% deduction for interest and tax gives a further FCF of $14 mill.

Depending how agressive Leon wants to be acquiring mines and how the projects are brought online and cash managed there should be no need for dilution only a possible short term finance loan at worst unless of course they decide to do more than the above.

Of course some will say I am being too cautious some may say not cautious enough but this is my understanding and my opinion to try and demonstrate how JLP can achieve their copper objectives this year with potential current cashflow if correctly managed and there are no hidden surprises we don't know about.

The market hasn't understood just how important the Chrome operation is to JLP cashflow and how it will help progress copper. We are still seen as pgms and there is the blip in the sp with the seller. If I was a first time investor I would be looking to invest here.

I am on holiday shortly and don't return until the end of September when I will have some more cash available and may top up if sp still low.

It certainly would Shuvlin you made me laugh with that comment:)