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If and when Roan does the business Edzi we will be fine. You make valid points and everything won't go smoothly. At the moment it looks like copper will double in FY25 and then double again (maybe more) in FY26. Potentially doubling again in FY27 (don't hold me to that one though).

My average is 8.2p and I am comfortable I will get a return on my money how much remains to be seen and how long I last. Don't know your average so don't know how comfortable you are with how fast or slow things happen here at the moment.

Just to get the header back on track:)

Just to add Edzi I don't think the market will be too concerned if JLP put out their forecasts for next year and hit them or even beat them.

The expectations of 25k for some investors however is something different some will be disappointed but if chrome picks up the slack whilst copper gets fired up then that should temper some of that disappointment and feed into the sp.

Hi Edzi,

The copper output has always concerned me. Mainly because of the grades that didn't materialize from the tailings processing so I was always skeptical about the grades they were putting out before processing that it would be as high as they are stating. I don't know once bitten twice shy I suppose. You don't know what you will actually get until you process it in quantity.

I estimated 12k for FY25 a while back then Leon's podcast stating comfortably doubling 3.5k/4k surprised me. Seisnav expected around 10k (apologies if I got that wrong seisnav). Obviously WHI predicting 12k but that includes 2.5k from IRH and nothing really happening there yet so Seisnav prediction looking more accurate.

I think they expected more but delays etc probably has got them off to a slower start of the ramp up of copper than they expected and so Leon probably lowering expectations for next year which they could beat.

The 25k will probably come some time in FY26 but unlikely to be 25K for the year depends how quickly they can get the IRH modules up and running. Bit of a slow burner at the moment Edzi need Roan to come in firing on all cylinders meanwhile let's hope the chrome price stays as high as it is:)

As it is quiet I looked at this in a bit more detail regarding their estimates for FY25.

Chrome & pgms

They have this at $29.8 million EBITDA. They assume 1.75 million tonnes of chrome. Pgms of 45k Inyoni, 6K third party produced. Forecast chrome price $275/ tonnes and $4 toll margin. I think this is way too low for example in the 2Q of FY24 chrome margin was $23/tonne.

Chrome alone at a margin of $23/tonne for FY25 should be $40 million EBITDA.

Copper

They have an expected production for FY25 at 9k Roan ( this includes production through Sable). 0.5k Munkoyo and 2.5k from the first IRH module. Total 12k bit more than Leon predicting in his podcast.

Personally I don't expect much from any IRH modules this year so will discount that but Munkoyo should be better and the 9k is doable with Roan and Sable. They have the EBITDA for this at $3k/tonnes based on a copper price of $8.8k/tonnes.

Overall they have copper coming in at 12k with EBITDA of $35.9 million. I think the copper output might be less but the margin could be greater so this looks about right.

Total for the year EBITDA is $65.7 million but I think they could be way out on chrome and pgms combined especially if chrome maintains its current price or even drops a few dollars. Don't think pgms margins even if they go up will make much difference.

That is my summary and opinion on it. Makes the chrome margin for second half of FY24 interesting.

Good morning everyone,

As Seisnav says Proof of concept at Roan will be the key that unlocks copper. Once it proves it can hit nameplate capacity I expect IRH will open their bank vault to get the modules up and running. Won't be quick Edzi a slow burner to start with still a few bumps along the way but at least we will be off and running (well a steady stroll to start with).

We may not get the end of year update in July probably in August when Roan has had a chance to run for a bit. It would make sense and it would probably help with a more accurate forecast for copper production for the new financial year.

Who knows we wait with bated breath.

Kalan hope your wife is doing well.

No in that message I went on to state 6k copper from 50k/ton processed that is 1%. You are mistaken and you thought it would be 1.5% at the time as quoted by JLP you clearly stated that. I was talking about net production but if you were talking about copper in the rocks before processing you didn't make that clear.

Just to show you I am not confused Gotreal taken from May 3rd post:

"50k/month module at 1 % of copper in rocks processed "

So I am talking about recovered copper as it states. Your reply to me:

"Copper percentage is 1.5% on average..... I acknowledge you say your 1% is conservative, but 1.5% has been consistently quoted."

From that I assume you are expecting 1.5% copper recovered at least. My reply to you:

"There is a huge pile of material and the percentage will vary. Saying 1.5% (even though they have tested some of it) and doing it consistently are two different things when it comes to JLP and copper. Look how pgms varies."

From that I am clearly not expecting 1.5% recovered and you are. JLP are expecting 0.8% ish from their recent figures.

What did you say about unit trusts? That is why the 1.5%/3% is misleading.

I wasn't confusing the 2 as I only put 1% in my calculations when I assumed 12k for next year. I never expected it to be 1.5/3% but was challenged on by others as JLP were quoting 1.5/3%. I with have a trawl back and see if I can find the comments. I was also told 12k was too low now it is looking a bit toppy.

Gotreal,

I didn't say it was a lie just misleading and others have assumed 1.5-3% grades because when I quoted 1% in my calculations I was reminded by some that the grades were 1.5/3%.

Now 1% I used may be slightly on the low side overall but the range of recovered copper looks like it will be between 0.8/1.6%. Average of 1.2% not far of what I originally assumed. I suspect there are some invested here expecting 1.5/3% copper recovered especially when they keep quoting that.

Just trying to get a better idea of what copper they will actually produce and realistic for my expectations. It is starting to come in line with Leon's podcast of comfortably doubling next year the 3.5k/4K they will do this year. I think I will revise down my 12k for next year to 8k/10k more in line with Seisnav expectations.

Just to add I always assumed 1% when I have done some calculations but have been picked up on it in the past with others saying it won't be that low as JLP quoting 1.5/3%.

Thanks guys. The grades recovered was always my concern just a bit misleading quoting grades of 1.5/3% without a caveat of saying what grades are expected to be recovered.

Obviously you guys have picked up on it better than me:)

Good morning everyone,

"Innovative Modular Technology – 2,000 tonnes per annum of copper per 20,000 tonnes per month copper processing module (assuming feed of 1.5% copper grade)"

2k tonnes per annum from 20k tonnes/month processing 240k per year isn't a grade of 1.5% it is around slightly above 0.8% grade. Am I missing something here?

We all want it to do well Mikie. I know I might come across as a bit negative sometimes and I certainly don't want to knock your optimism and I do learn stuff from your posts.

It's good we can have differing views and discuss them it is a good board.

Edzi isn't saying it will take a year Mikie he is saying it will be longer. It isn't long ago Mikie you were talking about 100k per year in 2-3 years time that is miles away.

Jammer is saying pretty much what myself and Edzi are saying.

We are probably 18 months to 2 years away from getting copper above 25k and there is a lot of work and money to be spent to reach that level. Far too much ramping on here about copper still far too many unknowns some need to temper their expectations. Maybe it will become a little clearer when JLP do their forecasts for next year.

That still doesn't detract from Edzi's point about getting the modules being brought to production in a timely manner with adequate availability for spares/repairs etc. Past performance on this has been poor that can't continue if it does then copper ramp up will be much slower.

You seem to be assuming everything is going to be 100mph once Roan is running and the module ramp up will be fast with IRH. Leon brought it to reality in the podcast when he said copper will comfortably double next period from 3.5K/4k tons so he isn't expecting probably much more than 10k.

Lot of obstacles to overcome. They can do it but it will take time and money.

Seisnav quoted 10k for next year and you wouldn't call Seisnav negative on JLP. Seisnav also mentioned energy supply in Zambia that could also be a factor remember Inyoni and them not telling us about water and power issues until they had to.

Agree Edzi.

The procurement and implementation of the modules isn't clear cut how long they will take and the actual grades they will process is unknown (yes I know what they say about the grades).

Another thing regarding copper. Leon stated 5k gross margin when I saw that I thought great that looks really good but now I have had time to think about it more I think that margin will relate to Roan and Sable at full capacity 20K/25K per year.

As he said in the podcast to comfortably double output next period (whatever that means). then we are potentially looking at 10k for the year and we will be nowhere near gross margin of 5K/ton on only 10k output.

It is a bit like the chrome toll processing it will be 40% of total output what he didn't say is we won't hit that margin until we reach 2 million tons a year so we aren't at 40% yet. Not everything he says is as it seems. Not untrue statements but not what is actually happening just yet unless I missed something and that is what he meant but didn't make it clear.

The past dictates how you improve the future if you don't learn from past mistakes might as well pack up.

Fair enough Mikie I just don't like giving anything away typical yorkshireman. It's just when does fast track become slow track?

You can't seriously think anything that anyone on here says affects the sp Shuvlin. JLP don't need any help from anyone on here and any new investors coming onboard it is important they have an insight to some of the pitfalls on here just as much as the good stuff that is happening and may happen.

I have said chrome is doing well and copper looks promising not all negative. I have even put some possible financial expectations for chrome next year but you have to balance the good with the bad. If past performance on Roan continues for other modules then don't expect copper ramp up to be as fast as some expect on here.

That's not unreasonable to say and hopefully they get it right but as Edzi says it is more in hope than expectation at the moment. We still don't know what throughput will be and what the actual grades turn out to be that will have an impact on the bottom line.

Shuvlin, Mikie everything is rosy in your JLP garden and yet the sp is 6.8p down from highs of 21p and copper output has been miserable for the last few years. Has the company done nothing wrong in your eyes?

They have done well with chrome and they may have just turned the corner on copper but it won't be a smooth path because if they continue to make the same mistakes with new modules they have with Roan it will be slow progress. Hopefully JLP can learn from the past that is why the past is important.

What I am saying is if the IRH deal doesn't have a couple of modules producing by Mar 25 then it is hardly fast track and the copper expected to be coming out of Roan and Sable by then could purchase 2 modules themselves so why give up 70% those two modules would then finance more modules and would be self financing.

I think Mikie the continued delays at Roan doesn't mean there won't be further delays with modules, commissioning etc further down the line that is why investors are less confident of a fast ramp up of copper.

The current sp does have some uplift in the price for next year but not much. This years financials are probably worth about 6p. Chrome will underpin it much higher next year.

I invested for pgms and then the copper tailings strategy was badly let down by the tailings fiasco but am pleased with the chrome which will get me a modest return. However copper still not there yet and still some way to go but promising.

Don't agree on the comms Mikie they are a little better but still think they are vague and poor at times and have to read between the lines.

Think Edzi is right the part didn't get here in May they just didn't want to tell us that when they should have done. Kept the info back until it did then sweeten the RNS with the two deals.

The IRH deal seems to have stalled waiting for Roan to prove the concept with actual copper output. Still haven't decided on a location, still testing there can't be that much left to test after 7 months.

It isn't my idea of fast track to copper. Will be lucky to have one running at full capacity by the end of the this new financial year. 18 months after the deal was announced. The way it is going if they get Sable and Roan at full output in 6-9 months time they could finance this themselves without giving 70% away. It's only $6.5 million for a 50k/month module to start with.

Still a huge amount of work to do on copper and it won't be as fast as some expect. Good job chrome is really starting to take off to support the company at this moment in time.