RE: A STORY Of TWO HALVES...21 Jul 2023 08:55
I agree TAC, that UJO cannot progress with West Newton, due to the operator and partners Rathlin and Reabold. The straight forward fact, they have not got any money to develop and as to date are also unlikely to get any, any time soon or for the forseable.
Realistically how much proven recoverable oil is there at WN ? How much would it cost to drill with the oil based mud etc.? Would 1 well recover costs within a short time frame? Etc etc.
Basically what I'm getting at is, how ambitious is UJO (MC £28M ish), Reabold (MC £11M ish), Rathlin (MC ? But 50%+ owned by Rathlin so est £5M).
Can you see the numbers I'm juggling with. I appreciate this is simplified but if Egdon can get taken over (seemingly on the cheap against Wressle, never mind there other potential assets). Then surely if DB has got the ambition still of becoming a mid sized oil company (circa £100M MC) then its never going to happen, relying on operators like Egdon, Rathlin and Reabold.
Maybe its overdue to take the bull by the horns and take the gamble on a combined takeover off Reabold and Rathlin, using shares and not cash and get this business into the talked about ambition that we have all been listening to and in some cases believed.
Reabold I'd suggest could be taken for £15M in new share and Rathlin maybe £6-7M (£3 ish) due to Reabold's stake.
It would be a paper deal that I think the Reabold shsreholders would jump at, as they would also have a stake in wressle and a change in management.
Are we all talk and not enough action?
Dividends and buyback, no problem with, growth is restricted by others, so let's make the restriction disappear.
Just my thoughts DYOR etc.