Member Info for GodofHellfire

Interesting. That must have been an off-book trade. Could have happened before today. It means someone is pretty serious, maybe an institutional who didn't want to move the share price wildly.

Positive sign

I'm sure the share price would do better if the CEO was more visible. He only seems to pop up occasionally, the rest being left to Claire Bay. I think he's focused on institutionals but your frustration is justified. I think he treats it like a job rather than "his" company. I've never sensed any passion, just defensiveness that he is doing his job. I suspect he gets scared about what he can and can't say. Other companies manage it though.

They have their milestones and they're working towards them, no doubt the focus and effort is there. Unless you can conjure up volume, this will be volatile. This is why I post the fundamentals, because it's these everyone needs to pay attention to and filter out all the noise.

An institutional analysis from late 2025/2026 suggests the implied value of Oriole's assets is significantly higher than its current trading price.

Bibemi (50% share): Based on PEA NPV @ $4k gold, worth ~$17.5m.

Mbe (50% share): Early-stage valuation (~$20/oz) worth ~$8.7m.

Senala (carried): Worth ~$3-5m.

This "Sum-of-the-Parts" suggests the company is trading at less than half its fundamental value. With gold at $5,000+, that gap is only widening.

DYOR

From a macro standpoint, I think we're about to see metals taken another leg up soon. Paper silver market teetering on the edge of collapse, all USA numbers heading in the wrong direction, possible refunds of tarrifs which could force the government to print to replace their slush fund, Japanese carry trade on the edge, and ships ready to attach Iran (as a distraction??).

All of that is good for gold....and explosive for miners

Think of Codias as "boutique"

It's worth clarifying the difference between Codias SA's Colomine and Oriole. The former is small scale underground mine. Oriole are planning large scale open pit.

Whilst Codias are the first "gold mine", Oriole are aiming to be the first open pit industrial mine. This is why the PEA was so important because it's impact on the environment is considerably greater but the consequences are more far reaching because they are easier and safer to develop

Mineral type "isn't" a defining factor

Cameroon don't have a gold mine in the country yet but they do have other mines that are operated by foreign companies, so the mineral type is a defining factor.

After the artisinal smuggling fiasco the Cameroon government are keen to formalise and expedite the governance around gold mining. The biggest hurdle in the form of the economic assessment has been approved so we are in the final stages of negotiations.

Oriole haven't actually managed to enable a single oz of gold out of the ground in any of their previous explorations, so the market is fairly treating Oriole with a cap on the share price.

If they cross this hurdle, EVERYTHING changes for them. They will have credibility as an explorer and position themselves as a producer..... although they'll probably sell and move onto the next licence....all of which is good for the share price.

The gold is there. They believe it's a multi million ounce resource. Can they get it out the ground though? 👀

All drill results do is coil the spring back further. Until Oriole get the green light to lift it out the ground then it's just unobtanium.

Why did Oriole choose Cameroon? It's all about the geology. The Central Licence Package (CLP) straddles the Tcholliré-Banyo Shear Zone, a structure analogous to the world-class belts in Mali and Ghana.

The government is also making a huge push:

Formalisation: Cracking down on artisanal smuggling to UAE to support industrial, transparent miners like Oriole.

Incentives: New mining codes offer VAT and tax exemptions during exploration.

First Mover: Oriole owns 3,600 km² of untouched ground—the kind of "blank canvas" that majors love to acquire.

DYOR

You will disagree with what I'm about to say BIKWIK, but it's a known fact in charting AIM listed stocks with next to no liquidity that charts mean nothing, statistically. Mathematically.

As a trader you should know about the methods to avoid trading to ruin by limiting your losses and ensuring you win more than lose.

In massively liquid stocks like ones from S&P500, you can manage that risk but looking at the volatility average and staying away from news events that cause the price to go up and down.

Even in those best case scenarios the best traders win 40-50% of the time. In AIM none of this applies because the thing that moves the share price is the news or an expectation of news. So any prediction you make will be immediately blown out of the water by news. Any successful trader would not mess with AIM stocks unless they are purely speculating and expect to lose all of their investment. It's too volatile and unpredictable.

I'm a serious investor in this company, so when I hear traders come in and talk about charts as if they are in anyway mathematically accurate with your trading style I see that it is likely to harm those who don't really know how to manage risk or understand the truth behind what you're saying.

So, for Oriole and others on here, it's my view that you should keep your interpretation of the charts to yourself. You manage your own risk and believe what you want to believe. It's more harmful than helpful to be posting it on here.

From my brief analysis, which I can expand upon if you wish, your posts over the last 18 months haven't turned out to be as accurate as you've hoped. So, I'd recommend everyone else DOES THEIR OWN RESEARCH

Your reputation isn't under attack. What I said was that I would fact check your performance. I would do the same to anyone because my goal is to filter out the noise and bring rational fundamentals. Not someone's personal interpretation which has, in the past, been driven by emotion and not charts (which you called out yourself when you sold)

I'm not professing to be a chart expert, but I have access to one that's better than most, and I have access to all the data.

How far back do you want to go?

Before you decide to "respond" to my post about charts and fundamentals/news and what moves the share price, I just want to give you the opportunity to reconsider.

I am able to extract every prediction you've made on this board and fact check it.

So, because I've already done that, and I respect you, I'd recommend you don't go down that path.

It has been undervalued for years. What news did the market get in late November that changed everything???

Do you use or understand Large Language Models? Do you know how AI controls algorithms?

If you disagree because you have hard evidence, please give me the knowledge so I can educate myself

What's the point?

@OldWasp

It fundamentally does make a difference. We ran an experiment that started late November where everyone held in their negativity whilst I posted the facts every day.

If you go take a look at the chart, the sentiment and charts rise consistently from that date onwards. That's never happened at Oriole, it has always been choppy.

The reason I know this effort is what changed it is because algorithms (which is interpreted by AI) assess "sentiment" i.e what people say, from forums and social media in order to form a buy/sell sentiment signal.

So, it absolutely does make a difference, and has made a difference.

I understand people have got frustrated, maybe it's the winter blues, but it's just because people want and need a big move.

It's coming, it can't not come. If you look at the last 3 drill hole positions it looks like they've drilled in some hot spots, and they mentioned they looked good in the video, so that announcement might be another "bonanza" news event. With the fact they can't actually find where the gold ends, is HUGELY positive for Oriole and BCM.

Once these results come out the pressure is on to get that Exploitation licence.

The traders are thinking this might be in June 2026, but they might be wrong, it might be May, or April.

There might also be a whiff of an asset sale, or maybe even high level negotiations about a full full free carry purchase.

These are the fundamentals. You're either in or you're out. Your choice. Traders will Trade, Investors Invest.

I can't see a reason to be negative, but perhaps I have more patience than others.

DYOR

If you're putting your money in and out short term, you're a trader.

If you keep your money in long term, you're an investor.

The two sides don't talk the same language. Both are perfectly legitimate and they have to co-exist.

The one thing both sides know, is that this is a winner in the end. The traders though put their money to work.

We know the timelines, nothing has changed.

We know what the REAL share price catalyst is. These results just reinforce the story.

Try to be civil to eachother. Try and think about whether you're writing for yourself or for others and whether it helps.

​When it comes to junior miners like Oriole Resources (ORR), the "Charts vs. Fundamentals" debate is a classic. While technical analysis (TA) has its place for timing entries in liquid markets, junior explorers are a different beast. They are event-driven, not pattern-driven. Here is why the fundamental bull case overrides the lines on a screen:

​1. Charts Track Sentiment; Fundamentals Create It

Technical analysis is a lagging indicator—it tells you what happened to guess what might happen. In a micro-cap like Oriole, the chart often looks like a "flatline" right until the moment an RNS lands.

​The Reality: In February 2026, Oriole reported that Mbe North (MB01-N) drilling is 90% complete, significantly extending the mineralised footprint.

​The Impact: No chart could predict the specific intercept in hole MBDD031 (7m @ 1.02 g/t Au). Fundamentals move the price; the chart just draws the line afterward.

​2. The "Binary Event" Factor

Junior miners live for "binary events"—moments where value is unlocked instantly by data, not trading volume.

​The Catalyst: Once the maiden JORC-compliant resource for MB01-N is released (expected after Q2 2026), it will add to the existing 870,000oz resource at MB01-S.

​The Bonus: Crossing the 1 million ounce threshold at Mbe triggers a $1 million cash bonus from partner BCM. A chartist might see "resistance," but that resistance vanishes when non-dilutive cash hits the balance sheet.

​3. Valuation Arbitrage in a $5,000 Gold Market

Technical analysis often ignores the intrinsic value of what’s in the ground.

​The Maths: As of early 2026, gold is trading in a structural "supercycle" above $5,000/oz.

​Asset Depth: Oriole isn't a one-trick pony. It has Bibemi (460k oz @ 2.06 g/t), a carried interest in Senegal (155k oz), and a Turkey royalty potentially worth £5-7M+.

​The Disconnect: The market is valuing the entire company at a fraction of its attributable ounces. A chart might show a "bearish trend," but the fundamentals show a massive valuation gap that eventually must close.

​4. Jurisdiction De-risking

Charts don't account for political and regulatory shifts.

​Cameroon’s Push: The government is actively supporting the transition to "mine developer" status.

​Peer Success: Nearby projects are starting operations this month, proving the "frontier" is open for business.

​The Bottom Line

Charts are great for seeing where we’ve been, but Fundamentals are the engine. ORR is an asset-heavy play in a record-breaking gold environment. With Mbe North drilling nearly finished and a mining licence pending at Bibemi, the "lines on the screen" will eventually follow the "ounces in the ground." I’d rather bet on the 1.33Moz+ and the BCM partnership than a 15-day moving average.

DYOR

Um everything has gone down today....

Today was just traders getting in and hoping for a spike, but they didn't get one so they've moved their capital to put it to work elsewhere.

It has nothing to do with the RNS.

Oriole is still steadily attracting more investors and less traders. You can see that in the share price action, the volume and the liquidity.

Oriole have two things to prove with the forthcoming exploitation licence, which is why it's such a big catalyst.

The first is that, despite being excellent and finding gold, they haven't actually succeeded (yet) in extracting a single oz out of the ground from any of their finds. So when the spade hits the dirt that disappears forever.

The second is that there isn't a gold mine in Cameroon. To me this is actually less of a reason than the first simply because there are already mines of other types in the country operated by foreign companies, so it's not as much of a hurdle as the market would have you think.

The collaboration with BCM was absolutely pivotal because they investee AND they have the equipment to mine. By earning in on all of the assets and spending millions, they need those mines open.

So, as you can see, Mr market is waiting. Meanwhile traders are realising that this isn't the cash cow it once was, it's now a company to invest in longer term.

GLA DYOR