Member Info for GoCPI

Tygra - Depends on what you're watching on the telly, hey? Try CNBC, and we could move up to the 5% scale ;-)

FearFul - still sitting in cash? European banking turmoil today and stocks broadly are taking a hit. Q2 recession commencement is nearly a base case now, and I'd love to see if CPI can do what it did in 2008, yet again. That's being a recession proof stock over the medium term. Alongside plenty of cash, I'm firmly sitting it out in CPI.

"I been told by very reliable source but unfortunately that person can not share any files. " - Sure, I did assume you were informed by FearFul's cousin.

"MW got 0.49%
Citadel closed short. 0.00%"

Where did you get the above from? Shorttracker.com stops tracking shorts as soon as they fall below 0.5%, but it doesn't quite show that Citadel closed their short.

The graduate trainee hedgies at MW responsible for managing CPI shorts look just as clued up at as our own FearFul!!! Good for them I suppose - they can at least finally see the writing on the wall.

Lol, FearFul. I can only wish you the best - maybe your wish could come true, even though a bit painful for me (and other longs). Medium term though, this baby will fly - that's what really matters to me.

Is this why you carry a bucket around with you everywhere?

I'll take you up on the new subject, Moyes!! And every little buy signal helps too.. ;-)

"GO CPI-lets say the FDIC "agrees" (its all the Fed imo) to insure all deposits, who will fund that? Where's the money coming from. It will have to be printed."

The cost of deposit insurance will ultimately be borne by the banks - that'll be the annual premium they pay to the FDIC and is a cost for all banks. Obviously, should all deposits be guaranteed by the FDIC, then the FDIC insurance premiums will jump substantially and banks won't be happy. It has nothing to do with money printing - I'm not sure why you think that fed does QE to pay the FDIC charges - there's no connection between these.

@Trisor - "The question here is how many banks does the Fed need to put a plaster over/save/arrange consolidation into other banks. If I had money in those regional banks I would be pulling the money out. Many of their stock prices have collapsed. I think one poster mentioned extending insurance was under consideration . Can you imagine how much money would be required to fund all that. Think about the inflationary effect of such an action".

I'm afraid you're not reading this right. Firstly, it's not the fed that insures bank deposits, it's the FDIC. FDIC charges all US based banks a surcharge to insure deposits upto $250k (Currently). They could raise the insurance limit, and charge the banks a bit more, which in turn could reduce bank profits, and that is NOT inflationary - it's deflationary, if anything. There's less money available for banks to make loans.

The FDIC/treasury obviously have a say in how 'troubled' banks are handled, more so if they pose systemic risk to the US/global economy. This is why they've guaranteed deposits at the 2 failed banks - SVB and SBNY. The goings on in the banking system is deflationary, not iflationary. How would banks lend money to the economy (which ultimately increases inflation through economic growth) when they're having to hold on to deposits to cover withdrawals? This has the effect to reducing money supply in the economy and could push the US towards a slowdown. My take is that the focus on Inflation is backward looking - there are plenty of deflationary forces breathing down our necks in the near future. There are maybe a few troubled regional banks at this time - First Republic is the key one and it's bigger than SVB in assets. For now, not many other regional banks are stressed - but, who knows what skeletons are hidden in the cupboard.

The numpties, Shore, has been saying hold for months - even through march 2022 when CPI was at 20p. We'd have missed a 100% rally if they listened to those numpties - they're just as insightful as FearFul is.

FearFul - not my problem if you're comprehension challenged, let alone facts challenged.

Not to put a completely positive spin on things - the one risk is commercial real estate in the US. The US regional banks could be sitting on large loan losses on loans provided to commercial real-estate companies. Because of low occupancy rates at this time, asset valuations are low, and these companies may not be able to repay or refinance these loans when the time comes for their repayment/renewal. This problem is certainly widely prevalent in the US and you've commercial real estate REIT stock prices falling heavily over the past year. That's one key risk to the US banking sector. It's not clear if this is as big a problem here/Europe, as it is in the US.

"Very true Trenners-my feeling is we havent seen the last of the banking situation. Lehman went in March 2008 and we didnt have the big crash til September 2008. Here we have multiple banks theoretically in trouble. Multiple regional banks in the US that are the lifeblood for smaller businesses."

@Trisor - Lehman didn't go bankrupt in March 2008 - the financial system went into a tailspin as soon as Lehman went bankrupt on September 15th 2008 - I know the date as I gambled on Lehman surviving the weekend and bought their stock on the Friday (12/09) and on Monday came the news that they were not rescued - that was a painful lesson for me. Bear Stearns was rescued/bought up in March 2008 by JPM, but there was no real contagion at that point in time. What we also note is that the US banking system was very risky at that time with massively undercapitalised banks, taking on massive amounts of leverage on their balance sheet, all based on package housing loans (CDOs) that were nowhere as safe as the credit rating agencies made them out to be. None of this exists now. The underwriting standards are way better than now, and defaults on loans are nothing out of the ordinary.

The reasons for the current banking crisis is fundamentally different. A mismatch between asset and liability duration at banks is the trigger now - it's a duration risk event, rather than a credit risk event. Deposits (liabilities) are generally short duration or even demand deposits, and some of the assets these banks purchased - SVB, for example, were long dated government bonds (10 year treasuries). They bought them at peak prices back in 2021 when rates were at near zero, and as they rose, treasury prices of course fell. Then when you have depositors ask for money back, they'll have to sell these 'safe' treasuries at large losses and that's what perpetuated the run on these banks. it's not as dire a scenario as 2008 - nowhere close. These in trouble banks' risk management functions were non-existent, as someone should've seen what would have happened in a rapid fed-hike scenario. The European/UK banks don't suffer as much from this duration mis-match; however, we narrowly avoided a similar scenario in the pension system in September last year after the KamiKwasi budget crashed gilt prices.

What's the worst that can happen? A short recession is a possibility as these banks pull back from lending as they normally would to save on capital in the event of deposit withdrawals, but I can't see the recession as anything serious - its not like loan losses are killing them. The bounce-back in the economy could be quick too.

Any comparisons with 2008 isn't quite right, IMO!!

"I guess if these decisions were easy then we would all be millionaires (Rodney)" Spot on there, Trenners. :-) The only thing I would say there we all know there could be outsized gains when a turnaround is firmly in play, and more so when the balance sheet strength is of ZERO concern.

"Problem is the banking system is a tad fragile so how do you know if and when this runs into the 20s. It’s calm for now I guess but where and when is the next domino. Difficult market and easy to be burnt here big time" @trisor - this is what makes the market. I can't say where this could go in the near term with all the economy variables in play, but that's what the broader market is digesting and pricing in at this time.

@Trustfund - my thoughts when I said to you to take some profits on your spreadsheet, is that A. I thought you had a lot of leverage in your account and B. The share price did jump more than 50% in a very short time, and B. knowing that there were a lot of 'stuck' investors/traders like FearFul, you could expect a wave of selling, and that was compounded by the banking sector crisis last week (we couldn't have predicted that to hit the market when it did). Good on you for taking profits though and for not coming across as all-knowing, and for not being boastful and 'put-downish' like FearFul - the market is a great leveller and could come back to bite us!!!

As I said the other day, to each their own. Timing the market is a fool's errand, and whilst you may get it right many a time, there is the additional factor of a finally occuring 'turnaround' to consider. FearFul got stuck on a trade a couple of years ago and has since been viewing it through a pair of very dark coloured lenses - he just can't see the trees for the woods sadly. Let's not forget the big picture that h's just like you, Aimster. Positional posters - sometimes you're in the same boat, but I've seen plenty of times when you're kicking each other down (like now). I wouldn't give either of you any credibility, however you try your best to fill blank spaces on no news days.

I'm not saying that I know that CPI won't draw down from here - if recession fears come back, then the entire market could come off a bit (and then there could be many more cheap opps in the marketc for me to chew on), but the progress here is undeniable and, Fearful can't read a company progress. I'm happy to sit and wait here!!

FearFul - I'm happy to acknowledge that CPi is gold.

FearFul isn't stopping his deramping until he's got his 33p buy. Lol. ;-) Oh wait, it touched 33.90 this morning though.

Someone mentioned very light volume, and that's true and is not an ideal sign on a strong up-move day like today. Fingers crossed though!!

"No one can peg the price. Give the drivel a rest." - Whaaaat? That's like telling FearFul to stop breathing!!

Lol..FearFul - a little bit of humility isn't a bad thing. When you go all ****y and talk nonsense as if it were reality, just because you want in on a trade, that's when you show your true colours. I'm glad that the market whipped your backside today, and long may it continue doing so - the 'know it alls' need to be shown their place.

I can't predict how the share may move in the near term, but today is a good day for holders. :-)

FearFul - I've said I'm in this for the long term. If your game is to play ST swings, that's your game. I don't really care whether CPI goes to 33p tomorrow or to 38p - I'm not selling my core holdings at these levels, and will accumulate should recession fears push down markets overall!! There is no interest rate risk here and that fundamental, really matters to me. To each their own though..