Member Info for GoCPI

The only defence I would offer up for Aimster is the fact that CPI was stuck in a range since the disastrous 2019 results annoucement in March 2020 - It's since been a case of show me. The better way to make money was trading up and down in the 3 years since, and that's what Aimster was doing - talking the SP up when they were long, and talking it down when they were short.
However, we're on the cusp of a breakout to more than 3 year highs (55+p), even though it may not happen in the next few days/weeks, the direction of travel is clear, IMO - upwards.

And it looks like the transformation is over - certainly Capita's is. And maybe just yours too, from a 1p/2p profit margin trader to a holder - Am I delusional to think along these lines, Aimster?

Are you buying this morning, Aimster? It's a touch low on the day, and are you advising your LTH friends to buy back now, as you're selling your trades?

@Aimster - are you a psychic in real life as you state these as facts - ".many LTH sold around 30 to 33 thinking it will drift back after holding for so long (as its happened in the past) others sold around 35, and alot old around 39 and 40..i.e yesterday morning on open".

Yesterday wasn't the highest volume day - that was Thursday and Friday was a close second. Yesterday was pretty good too - there's plenty of interest in CPI at this time. The good old MW trader is covering their short position too, although we won't know if they've fully covered as they're now below 0.5% reporting threshold. There will always be bouts of profit taking, but the long term trajectory in the SP is now undeniable.

@Schlemiel - great historical context about Ashtead. I didn't know about the background and it's fantastic to note their revival. It looks like they stopped paying dividend between 2002 and 2006, and it really took after the great recession. That sets up the context for us too - no NET financial debt after H1 this year (even Serco must be smarting at this stat) and the possibility of more BPO/consulting business coming our way on the back of our financial strength is a kicker. If interest rates keep moving up, the interest on our excess cash at banks could be more than the interest we pay on the private placement notes debt. For context, interest on overdrafts last year was circa £9m - we should look to eliminate that and use that for dividends!!!

JG - that'll be fantastic, won't it? I'm thinking slow and steady, but we can all live with a rapid jump, even though I think it's very unlikely!! If we can avoid falling down much in the event of a US recession (inducing a UK slowdown), just like we did in 2008/09 during the great recession, then that's a far better outcome for us - the rapid jump on the other side of the bear market can really take us back to the early 2020 levels, IMO!!

Nice one, NF. It's good to see the all-knowing hedgies burn and the lot of us can see value in a company better than the numpty MW traders who opened that short.

Cap - There's no PII data on that screenshot - I can't see someone hacking the hell out of anything and then somehow taking over my account. I try and not throw caution into the wind and that isn't all of my portfolio - And I certainly keep an eye out for scammers/hackers though!! :-) Thanks for your heads-up.

We finished on a good note today and who knows some of the bigger optimists calling 50p this week or the next may yet be right.

i've been on and off in CPI since 2018, but i started accumulating heavily since the drop into the 20s last year. For full transparency, below's a screenshot of my holdings in CPI. It's not to chest-thump and keep banging on about me being a winner - it's only to show I'm not BS'ing and I still hold a high conviction in CPI's prospects. I timed my O&G investment sell last year at the right time and I moved to CPI primarily!!

https://ibb.co/smhTgG0

There are lots of little pieces of news that posters on here pick up on and post, and i'd rather be in the know than not, and then to share my fundamental viewpoint of the companies I invest in. We can only benefit from sharing our analysis, views and even other tips !!

Good luck - however you're invested.

Fair shout, Lordy. Shouting loud about your holdings on an anonymous board isn't the wisest of moves. :-) Not that I need to, but I'll see if I can screenshot my holdings to show my conviction isn't mispaced oR worse, contrived as a pump and dump scheme!!! :-)

Hello Know0 - Personally, I'll be hard-pressed to put out any monthly/near-term targets, as I personally just can't predict what the near term price movements would be - who'd be takin profits and at what pace are key price influencers. I'm sceptical of day to day predictions, even directionally, just like your presumed big drop at the open today didn't pan out - because of what you thought was a false price close on Friday - honestly, I'm not ****ging you off though, I'm just pointing why its difficult to call day to day movements!!!

We've lived through circa 15 months of range bound trade from Dec 2021 to March 2023, and we've finally seen a decisive breakout to the upside. Personally, I dont care much if CPI drops 10 or 15% from wherever the near-term trading top might be - that's very healthy, IMO, and the upside journey will recommence on either contract wins or larger asset sales in the CGU Portfolio business.

P.S: I have a very large skin in the Capita world, just over 4.5 times your stated holdings, at an average a smidgeon under yours (circa 27p). My conviction level in Capita's performance is very high and I'll hold the majority of my holdings for the next 12 to 18 months. I plan to have a 15 to 20% as a trading position, and trim some. But, will wait for a 3+ year high above 80P before I consider selling a some more % of my core holdings!!

Good luck to you and other investors, however you play this!!! There's no right or wrong in investing - it's the end outcome that counts, and if Buffett is a guide, a clear turnaround play is the ideal way to generate outsized returns - I can't see why CPI doesn't fall into that category!!

Aimster - my current UK holdings are Capita, RR, BAB, THG, ASC. Some unsolicited investments tips for you - Bab**** is ripe for a breakout, imho. Please let me know when you go short in any of these - I'll add a lot more. ;-)

Aim's a trader. He'll go short soon, imho. It'll be fun to see CPI go up more, imho, as she's forced to cover - that'll be the next leg up.

NF is also a posotional trader, imo (nothing wrong with this though) - on that I agree with Aimster. Maybe NF has a time horizon of weeks, rather than hours OR days that good old Aim has ;-)

Good to see us in the 40s, but we're at an early stage in this investment returns journey.

Swing - The £35m number os gross assets, not net assets and certainly not what was on the books at 31/12, after the additional impairment that was taken in the accounts put out last week. I have no doubt they'd have written it down close to the value that it was actually sold and they'd have had some inkling into what the sale value would've been, and they moved to adjust accordingly.

We need traders/weak hand investors like you to cash out - that sets a real solid foundation for true value to be unleashed. To each their own though!!!

Its good that weak hands

Swingman - and you may waiting for many years, hoping and praying for a 30p entry - alas, not to be!!!

Post disposals, with zero net debt, and with a stable, growing core business. I can't see why we can't get back above 100p over the next 12 to 24 months. We were above 150p at the back end of 2019 and early 2020, and the business was a lot more risky back then. The market needs to see one more report with tangible progress on the cash flow front, which we know CPI will deliver - Lowered interest costs/Lease costs/cash generating core businesses - will all drive higher margins herein on. Brexit resolution is another very positive step - the economy will continue to grow with that tailwind, and aid CPI. The next 6 months could be choppy as the markets debates whether the US will enter a mild recession, but it'll be mild at worst, IMO. Look past near term, and with Divs reinstated, we should be north of 100p in the medium term future.

Slow and steady does it, fellow investors!!! RR and AML had an initial jump and then grind upwards and they're both hittimg multi-year highs - we'll do the same, IMO. It won't be a straight line up to the 50s - holders who've been waiting a while, will sell, and that sets us up for a better medium term base with new entrants

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/capita/news/rns/story/xzjn63w

new one announced today. £21m value, with £17m cash inflow for this HR business/software sale!!

@Culley01 - this is just a modification to the previously confirmed extension of the PIP services (Lot 4 in NI) till March 2024. I suspect that the actual contract award from July 2024 will be forthcoming in the next 3 to 6 months.