Member Info for GoCPI

NoFear revels in his little willy syndrome - best ignore his useless posts as I always did, other than when he posted latest news that I may not have picked up on quickly. Beyond that, zero knowledge of fundamentals and sectors within an economy - i find him about as useful as an chocolate teapot. Imho.

Personally, not looking for a quick quid with CPI. I'm with Buffett on this share - hold till this reached to 2020 highs and you can then retire. :-) Lol

the volume isn't quite there, but I'm sure we're all appreciative of the bounce today. A few days of calm in the market wouldn't be too bad. ;-)

I have some RR that I purchased for an average of just about £1. I sold about 65% of my holdings in RR last week - my view was that it would get hammered in the event of a recession led drawdown - however, CPI has been slammed a lot more than RR has been :-) - that tells you all you need to know about what the market thinks currently.

I like RR, but CPI is more of a better recovery play for me - they're on the cusp of handing out dividends, whilst RR is more of a China travel recovery play this year. RR will only really make profits in 2024, which isn't the case with CPI. But, RR is the industrial sector, which has been holding up really well until last week's banking turmoil. If I get another 15 to 20% drawdown in RR, I would get back in. I'm also sitting on plenty of cash, alongside a small holding in UK gilts and some short-dated US treasuries - all safety plays in the event of high levels of stocks volatility.

@Trisor, you remember how CPI was steady/range bound last year between 20p and 30p, even through all the large market drawdowns? My guess is that we'll stuck within the 30p and 40p range till H1 results are announced in August. I'm not precognant and don't claim to see the future, but more banks toppling could put the path on a path to a short/sharp/quick recession than what the market was expecting, even as recently as last week. not many would've foreseen the events of just the last week and that's obviously had an outsized effect on CPI's stock price, but value should eventually shine through after the current bouts of volatility dissipates over the coming months.

Spot on, Trust Fund - Thanks. We knew that CPI was investing £50m to £60m Capex spend this year on Capex on Digital Offerings. A lot of that will be in IT equipment/software - and that's a good saving on any taxes that CPI will be on the hook for. I'll check if I can see what the impact could be.

European banking system concerns today. Credit Suisse is in the crosshairs and trading's halted after a more than 20% fall to all-time lows today. Banking contagion effect can't be understated and it looks all but inevitable that a US recession will be on us soon enough, and it'll be a struggle for us too!!!

"If gocpi when I question thg dropping 5% and was around 67 ish at the time. If he had sold, (whether u have or not) ud have banked higher profits imho". I suppose if you're a swing trader, you're right Aimster. I have a small % here that is my trading pot (Circa 10%) that I trade, but I'm holding the vast majority of my holdings. Could I have been better off if I sold it off last week, sure. But, I'm playing CPI as a recovery play and if you have a 12 to 18 months view on the company and the share, I'm convinced that the holders will be a lot better off than selling at 40p. I can't time the day that the share could jump a lot because of a piece of news, and hence one's convinced that this is a real turnaround story now, with the much better financial profile they now have. I'm happy to wait out swings and if it gets crazy cheap again, I could put some more cash to work!!!

Spot on, GS. I'd agree with that assessment.

"The mystery of how a budget which was never implemented could possibly have shafted the economy.".

It's no mystery if you delve a bit deeper into what happened as soon as that Autumn budget was announced and it has nothing to do with politics - I'm a Tory voter myself. The very notion of unfunded tax cuts and spending hikes at an obvious risk of destabilising UK's fiscal position, just as the BOE was embarking on monetary policy tightening (hiking rates + QT), was simply suicidal, economically. Gilt prices tanked across the board and interest rates shot up - surely we haven't forgotten what happened back in September, have we? If the BOE hadn't stepped in and re-initiated QE and started buying long dated gilts to stabilise gilt-prices and rates at the long-end of the curve, pension funds would've gone out of business.

We've seen a smaller view of what could've happened with our financial system just by looking at what happened at SVB - in the grand scale of things, it was a similar issue. Mis-match of Asset and Liability profiles, and sudden losses on supposedly safe Gilt prices could've put us in a very, very difficult spot in the UK. The economy couldve gone into a tailspin - thankfully, none of that happened. LT and KK paid the price for fiscal 'malfeasance' and profligacy, when they least needed to go down that route at that point in time. I don't really indulge in speculation and conspiracies as to how Sunak and Hunt came to be where they are now, but at least they stabilised the fiscal situation, after that Faux Pas. That's all that matters.

I'd honestly ignore the likes of Investopedia's dividend forecasts - their level of cluelessness would be pretty high. We'll just have to see how the asset sales pan out in the next 3 months and how contract wins are tracking, and we'll get a very good sense from that.

Unlike September 2022, when KamiKwasi's budget shafted the UK economy, the current bout of weakness originated in the US and may well help our economy by lowering O&G and other commodity prices. Even if the US tips into a shallow recession in Q2/Q3 23, we may well avoid the nasty effects of such a drawdown - after all, we've been in the dumps for more than a year now, whilst the US economy has been fairly good.

38+p close today? Fingers crossed!!

10p dividend in the near future? You must be kidding!! They may do a maximum 2p annually to start with (possibly a bit lower), and that's still a £34m outlay for dividend annually. That's definitely sustainable. Remember that they'll still be paying interest on their financial debt till its fully redeemed in 2027, but the hope is that they can get higher interest yield by even investing in 3 year gilts with the gross cash on hand, which will exceed gross financial debt (hence no NET financial debt) by the end of H1 this year.

I was hoping that the stock could be 'recession proof' like it was back in 2008/09, but the drawdown in the past few days of about 18% from the peak last week, is calling into question my key assumption there. We'll just have to see how things play out in the coming days - some contract wins or asset sale news will be helpful. :-)

I did - that's too far out for me to even consider, if I can't get a grip on what the revenue trajectory looks like in the 12 months ;-)

Should we be surprised with Capitalizer's £3 target? No, it isn't in the realms of the improbable. If CPI can prove to the market that they can go grow quickly, but profitably, after gaining a foothold in the value-add consulting side of the market, then this may be possible. I'll be more than happy to take a £1 share price in 12 - 24 months!!! ;-)

Capitalizer - Lol..that's an imho

This is fantastic - thanks for the heads-up here, Mikee. 18+ million traded and that tells us an institution is buying. An upmove in the works in the next day or two - that's my best guess!!

They had no choice really!!! They know what happened when they let Lehman go bankrupt in 2008

https://twitter.com/PiQNews/status/1635047668673118209

Well, the federal reserve has stepped in and guaranteed all SVB depositors will have access to their funds tomorrow. And another bank that was at risk - Signature bank of New York, is also under federal possesion. Their stock was also under strong pressure last week and were crypto related.
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1635046192554946560

They're acting to prevent large scale contagion, but who knows where this goes in teh near term!!

Aimster - you have such a trader's view on any investment that it's a wonder for me how you can ever be successful in the medium/long term. In the short term, of course, you can play for your 1p/2p trades and that may well work for traders like you, but there's always the chance that you'll miss out on a big move on a day you least expect it.

if the broader market tanks badly in the near term because of the banking sector issues in the US (primarily a misalignment of asset duration vis-a-vis liability (deposit) redemption), and you expect CPI to fall with it, that's a fair enough assumption - it's not by drawing a tedious connection from tech/bank stocks falling to CPI falling with them (as you allude to). CPI is not in the tech sector nor is it a bank stock, nor would I expect them to have invested their cash in a startup oriented bank like SVB.

Ahh yes - CPI is largest tech and bank stock listed on the LSE?? I learn something new everyday and this Sunday is no different either.