Member Info for GoCPI

98% probability of no change tonight, make what you will of that, but Fed's not cutting tonight. March cut was at a 40% probability yesterday, and I'd think that probability would've gone above 50% with today's more positive inflation data. They'll cut first, my bet's on May as they may want to see the effects of red sea shipping cost hikes in the next couple of months' data, and our slavish BOE will soon follow. The tide may then turn for the better for retail stocks along with manufacturing and Ad sectors in the UK.

Till then, whoever are good traders on here can make money on these rather predictable swings

When rates start coming down, interest rate sensitive sectors will head up. Fed cuts first, hopefully in March but May at the latest. My favoured sectors are Solar, Digital Advertising, Banks, Manufacturing - preferably stocks within the sectors that have underpeformed in 2023. SFOR sits in the real sweet spot, with a solid CEO at the top. IMO, this will rally big in 2024 - just wait till the fed cuts to see a sustained rally.

MS is, rightfully so for now, playing down any green shoots he's seeing in the US economy and the positive knock-on effects that would have on Ad spend. Ken Griffin (Citadel) reckons the US economy is doing pretty good right now and monetary stimulus in the form of rate cuts are on the horizon. It may be H2 by the time Ad spend recovery takes hold in the US, but all the market needs is a confirmation that there will be a US Ad spend upturn. The US macro will aid that outlook, IMO.

I'm not sure what the comparison really is all about? GOOG is sitting at all-time highs, and their quarterly ad revenues were 65.5 B vs an expectation of 65.8B - any small miss is an opportunity to sell. SFOR is at all-time lows and with a broad US economy recovery with Tech in particular doing well, there's only way to go and that's UP, IMO. I intend to make SFOR one of my top holdings as we await an inevitable break-out from the lows in 2024. It may take a cut from the Fed to really get us going, but its a good time now to accumulate.

I honestly think it's 220% fooked, on second thoughts I may decide to up that number to between 12 and 14x. Please make sense to anyone on this board why LSE isn't valuing at double Huel's sales multiple of 14x from 2022 - we're after all market leaders with no growth. If anything we're in 2024 and inflation must push that multiple up to 16 to 18x sales at a minimum - there's no justification for this outrageous undervaluation. LSEG must quit.

@TRustFund - I'd think that you're not looking for sympathies, but kudos for putting it out there and getting it off your chest. I had lost maybe 10s of thousands over the years, but I've had a great run from 2020 from the depths of the pandemic with US/Canadian oil stocks that's made for much, much more than I've ever lost over the past 15/20 years prior. I'm not sure if I could've stomached the scale of your losses if it was a few years prior.

It is notoriously difficult to time the market/stocks. For your investment viewpoint, last year H1 results was a disaster and hence not a surprise that it's stuck in a trading range for the past few months. I'm of the view that things should look up after the FY results announcement and that's where my bets are at. However, nothing is guaranteed in the markets, and I can't advise you to stay invested, particularly if you have financial needs to address. Either way, the medium term direction of CPI will not be clear until results day, IMO. If it turns out to be dull from a forward guidance viewpoint, we'll be stuck till August at least. I placed my bets with the thinking that Adolfo will deliver, and in the worst case that may be the end of this FY, but they've started to make the right moves.

I genuinely hope you can make your money back through solid MT/LT investments.

"Hhh81 let’s hope those frothy US markets don’t have a correction before our results, otherwise they could drag this to new lows " @Gotout - This is certainly a risk, but my hope is that once the fed pivots to cuts, the rally should broaden out even if the big 10 in the S&P take a back seat. I can't see the likes to NVDA or META make too much headway from these price points and that should lead to broadening out of the rally even if the broader indexes don;t make much headway. If the Fed disappoints, then there could a risk of a circa 7 to 10% drawdown and that would take down CPI with it, IMO.

TrustFund - sorry, this came out wrong - "I still remember advising you to sell a portion". I meant to state I remember you saying you had a large leveraged position last March and I recommended you take profits on the day it was close to the 40s, maybe because as I personally don't do leveraged positions anymore, having been bitten by margin trading across the pond around the time of the GFC. I'm not an advisor to advise anyone on a trading decision.

Do well with your next investment, even if that means you come back to CPI in the near future.

Crafty - so it has - is this site owned by your much beloved LSE, the only reason why THG is valued as it is now? Doh - it sure doesn't want us to be informed about the world's two best stock markets and put those forward to our esteemed board to consider in the AGM as the primary listing option for THG.

on second thoughts, venezuela may suit mouldy better. you do get the same world class valuations as ****stan, and you get maduro to boot - mouldy's kindred spirit i reckon.

i think it'll be ****stan - mouldy will no doubt agree. it's right next to india, a massivegrowth market for thg, but has among the best developed stock markets in the world with world class valuations and has low listing fees . throw in the lowest corruptions rates in the world and a world class democracy - - all positives that india or qatar doesn't, and you have the makings of a powerhorse stockmarket and thg should be proud to have its primary listing on that dynamic market.

There are plenty more *undervalued* plays in the UK market.

Good luck, TrustFund. I still remember advising you to sell a portion last March when you said you had a leveraged position. Do I personally think its a good time to sell, I don't in my humble opinion for what it's worth. I can't predict what can happen on a day to day basis and I don't think I'm a blind long - I'm well aware of the risks in Capita. For all uber positive posts from some on here, there is a flip side too. If those positives don't translate to gains on the P&L and the Balance sheet, then it's pointless to use such positives to pump the share price.

Whilst I'm sanguine about CPI's prospects in the medium term, based on the fact that I believe the top management changes will have a positive impact on the SP, it may not be until August 2024 with the H1 results that these changes will truly manifest themselves in the bottomline (or not). If, and it's still an if, Adolfo can pull off this turnaround then the returns could be multi-fold, but for now CPI is a trader's paradise. I'd think 17p and 23p is the trading range and penny pinchers like AimLess and NoClue may be the ones to make money whilst trading these swings.

Anyway, I wish you well and may you make your money back in other investments. There are plenty more undervalied plays in the UK market that could dish out handsome returns.

I thought Synthomer was a decent bet mid-year, but thankfully didn't buy much and didn't lose much. This is now a shiite cleanup operation from the mess the previous management left us with.

And industrial markets should turn up this year as rates start moving down this quarter or next. This is now one of my recovery plays, after a horrible couple of years.

@Wigwammy, the timing may be off on Josey's calls, but I'm with her directionally. This is bullish play for 2024 - all IMO.

I agree there's a definite undervaluation on the LSE, but for those companies (their management) that actually delivers positive financial results, it isn't all a one-way street!!! I thought I should put this link out there to add balance to the constant 'THG's SP is only where it is because of LSE' regurtitatio by THG's PR department on here.

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/why-one-san-fran-fintech-060000534.html

If Mad Mouldy can deliver 'growth' consistently, then the market will take notice and reward it, but being less hubristic and stop making enemies with the city because they've hurt your ego by hammering your price down as you didn't deliver on growth targets - this can only help. I'm not convinced that he's up to the task though.

"OSG, yup, but not sure how broad of a rally it is, mag seven and all of that."

It's a pretty broad rally in the US. S&P consumer discretionary up 22% since October, S&P Industrials up 20% in the same timeframe - they're doing quite well, admittedly though S&P tech has outperformed over the past 3 months. It's not been a narrow sliver tech rally since end-October. That kind of returns in those 2 sectors tell a story that the market, for now, is looking away from a recession scenario and a continuing bull market. Would LSE and THG follow and participate to the upside, that's a big question mark?

However some of you chaps want to spin how undervalued THG and it's all because of LSE, and I know it is undervalued to a degree and I feel the pain as I could've used my 'stuck' capital to put more money to work on the NYSE/NASDAQ, the reality is Mouldy laid it out on a platter to the city with his chronic underperformance in the past 2 years, and who's to blame them for taking advantage? Whatever Mouldy's fanboys on here think, I'm convinced he's a major reason for the SP's chronic underperformance in the past 2 years. And the mad man still thinks he's doing shareholders a favour by putting his feisty, hubristic self out there against the city - the reality can't be any different. On the flip side, maybe this hubris will work just fine across the pond, and ultimately that's the right parking place for the lightweight, but for all the talk, he can't put in the hard yards to actually get the listing across to NYSE/NASD - I'm not convinced that this man can do it. I'm waiting to be pleasantly surprised, but not holding my breath.

"The exception to above would be if a partner came along, that would change the whole dynamic depending on who/where it is, different ball game." You had Softbank drop their large holding at a big loss and walk away, maybe that should've been a sign? Who else would want to deal with Mouldy? The PR team on here touted Qataris and the Middle-east investors for an year now, but nada. The ideal scenario for holders is if mad Mouldy quit his CEO role and hands that over to a professional manager. How likely is that to happen? I'd give it a 1% chance.

"WHAT WHY WHO and WHERE?" - If you're either a customer or a prospect fo Capita, you'll know the answer. If you're a long or a potential long, you want to see this translated to hard bottom-line numbers. If you're short (or a prospective short), you'll want this to be nothing more than a fad and does nothing to Capita's bottom-line. Where do you fit in, PedroBull? I don't think it's the first category ;-)

They should start with a Kong listing as he'll fetch a massive premium on the US markets. Or maybe get the Japanese Austostore chappies back in for a bidding war? Visualise the boost to our market cap - can we a say 6.4x revenue multiple for Kong's beauty division is incoming?

There's just no volume at all and no conviction in either direction. We may have to wait until early March (results) before the trend is clear. Plenty of filtered messages as its a slight downside - the 2 lightweights must be busy proclaiming their all-knowing market sense? ROFL..

**Bought back in at these levels**