Member Info for GoCPI

"If BoD want to build trust with the markets they should set out a series of goals at beginning of year and stand by these - then provide regular updates."

THG should really list on the NYSE/NASDAQ - like their fellow listees, they're then 'forced' to put out detailed quarterly financials/guidance and of course, annual guidance. They get away without any of these on the LSE. Lazy Mouldy only complains about the LSE when it suits him - in reality, he doesn't want the kind of quarterly attention that a US listing brings with it. But then he wants the kind of valuation that a typical US listing does - you can't have it both ways, heh?

Don't worry about Ingenuity, chaps. Remember it's worth more than a billion in mkt cap - if only it was on the right stock exchange.

"let the resident vultures enjoy their day" - Yep, the 2p brigade is out in full force and that's to be expected. We've bee baiting them for a while and they've finally had a day of joy - maybe it's one of last days? :-)

As the Saffas would say - Móre is nog 'n dag .

Sell-side analyst recommendations do impact stock prices for a day, two at most if the analyst is gold-star for the sector in question. There are always motives for sell-side analysts both when they upgrade as well as downgrade, and we don't need to get too riled up over those calls - at any given point in time they suit either longs or shorts. A day's pain, but has given us the opp to add some, if someone has the firepower. AH on board next week, and the news of FERA transaction closing soon are a couple of news points for the near future. Patience is the name of the game.

The key US CPI data is out tomorrow - I think the less important PPI data might be out today, but it's CPI that the fed keeps an eye out for.

And now very soon enough we have to put up with Noclue's incessant nonsense about how good CPI is, until the next 3p rise. The script is very predictable.

Arghh, RBC to NoClue and AimLess' rescue. :-) Oh well, you may win some.

Spot on, Yespsb. If only facts matter (Mouldy overseeing declining revenues/profitability over 2022/23) than Messiah brown-nosing, perhaps the Acolytes on this board can actually make some money ? Regurgitating the same valuation fantasies will not push the SP up, not without the Messiah addressing the underlying reason for the SP crash...

BTW, NVDA hits an all-time high yesterday. They have an extremely intelligent and capable CEO, who's not hubristic in nature and builds good relationship with the wider market participants and delivers growth in a post-pandemic world - an extremely powerful combo that our Messiah just hasn't shown, yet !!! We can always hope.

"Hopefully the new guy can do the job JL was well paid to do and the shareholders will see a recovery, however a proper recovery will not happen until Capita is profitable and pays a dividend."

No debating this, TerryM1. I did come around to your views on JL after the H1 23 debacle albeit, late. ;-) Whatever said and done, JL hasn't been good for CPI shareholders. Adolfo had proved himself previously at another listed tech company, SDL and grew the Telco business well at AWS - I'm very hopeful that he can put the 'Jam tomorrow' JL mantra firmly behind and deliver more efficiences at CPI and put his mark on CPI's future with the FY 23 results release. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

@BigPunt - I agree that JL doesn't deserve the 'King of Turnarounds' moniker. OK, he had one-off success with Amec Wheeler, but if we reflect on what he's delivered for Capita, I'd have to agree that it was on balance, a failure. A sweeping set of cost cuts could've started a while ago, soon after as they started with asset sales in anger - that didn't have to wait until the end of 2023 when he knew he was just about to leave. I personally don't know him, but as someone stated on here he was a people pleaser and couldn't bring himself to make those hard calls quickly. Yes, cash was still being haemorraged as seen in the H1 2023 report and that was a massive disappointment to me and I said on this that I'm selling a good portion of my holdings as I'm not happy about the diection of travel at the company and I was hoping that the new CEO may be the one to embark on cost cuts. However, JL has finally (now that he was leaving) shown a willingness to take an axe to bloated employee costs and that, along with a new incoming CEO who's take success in the tech world previously, gives me a bit of confidence that they can FINALLY pull it off. By design or just luck, we now have 2 directors leaving, including THE employee director, and that to me shows more willingness to finally put shareholders ahead of employees, and that includes management too.

Maybe there are more cost savings to be made in the Customer Experience side of business as I suspect they'd have had a relatively weak year in 2023 - but that's Pásse and if the UK/ European economy turns around in 2024 on the back lowered inflation/rate cuts/business & consumer confidence returning, that division could actually do quite well from a growth viewpoint. Therein lies the opportunity for an upswing in the SP, IMO. Is it without risk? I'd never say no, but the big SP upside opportunity is if they finally pull off the turnaround that this company deserves and is capable of. Will we see another black swan like the 2023 hack event that could disrupt progress yet agin? I'm sanguine on that front and hence I'm a buyer.

@Gotout - "Did any of us really think that NoClue has anything other than his 2P swing trades that he cares about? I've long known about that light-weight and had him on filter, and recently also put AimLess on filter. Filtering will save you a lot of anguish that we don't really need."

This was in response to Trisor's post in response to NoClue's post. OK, I should've been more clear in saying 'Filering NoClue will save you anguish', but there you go. I've known shameless NoClue for a long time on these boards and is Modus Operandi is pretty simple. Shameless pumping when he's long and as soon as he gets his 3 or 4p upside, he's out and then the equally shameless dumping follows. Of course, what's VD to me may be Ambrosia for some, and that's the beauty of free will.

Did any of us really think that NoClue has anything other than his 2P swing trades that he cares about? I've long known about that light-weight and had him on filter, and recently also put AimLess on filter. Filtering will save you a lot of anguish that we don't really need. Added some today.

Time to add some more for me, IMO. Will start adding some in chunks starting tomorrow. This is my best UK value share for 2024 and I may have to slightly lighten my UK growth share, THG, and get more shares in CPI. ;-) . May the best share win and make us all some, nah loads of, money. :-)

You missed out 2022 - $653M

2023 - $1320M (Street estimates, after $971M till Q3 2023). That's 100% Y-O-Y revenue growth in 2022/2023, whilst we're running negative revenue growth in 2023, and 2% growth in 2022. Is it any wonder that Wall Street values CELH as it does? Let's hope lightweight Mouldy can get us at least 5 to 10% growth in 2024 and stem this rot in the SP - it's tiring hearing him blame everyone other than himself for the SP debacle. Whether we go to 60p or 100p and beyond from here depends on what growth in revenues/profitability Mouldy delivers - simples.

From a valuation viewpoint, If we assume net cash flows (FCF) will be circa £100m (ver conservative) annually and grow moderately at 3% a year, on a DCF basis the NPV for capita is circa £1400mill, more than 3 times the current market valuation. With the disposals out of the way and no new one-offs and clearer comparisons going forward, backed up by a new CEO well entrenched in the tech space, there should be upside, IMO, to the cash flow numbers. CPI has guided to 6% EBITDA on a medium term basis, and if the FCF ends up in the circa £150m annual range, the DCF value is circa £1800m, circa £1/share. All to play for here in the medium term, IMO. But I can never predict what could happen on a day to day basis in the near term though - I just leave that to the 2 resident penny-pinchers!!!

Are the 2 resident penny pinchers out with their regular dose of verbal diarrhoea again as I see plenty of green filters? Lol, if there were ever perfect contra indicators, these 2 are it, all IMO. I suppose there's some value in keeping the daily comedy going for those who don't have them on filter. ;-)

Crafty - looking at your posting history, you've been regurgitating the same old fantasy, IMO, for the past 18-24 months - Ingenuity fantasies/LSE short attacks/. Fom what I can tell, you just can't see the big picture and it's pointless for me to keep debating with you on this topic. Every tech stock I can think of, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE or wherever they were listed, got hammered from the middle of 2021 through end 2022 - because first the US markets and followed by UK/European and other markets quickly realised that growth at no cost is just a rehash of what happened in 2001 to 2003 in the dot-com bubble. I think that you and the other Mouldy acolytes sit in the same 'blind leads the blind' category that live in the glorious past of what has been without comprehending that the investing world has moved away from Growth at no cost, more so in a world of high cost of capital, because that wasn't sustainable.

The market correctly predicted that THG's growth was coming to an end in 2022 by hammering the SP down in 2021, and so the growth did in 2022. A 2% growth that year and a negative growth in 2023. And no profitability to speak of as they had to write down large amounts for over-priced acquisitions in the FY 2022 accounts and we have no idea what they may do this year. Is the market efficient - I don't believe that. But directionally, they got THG spot on in 2021 and 2022 as a harbinger of what was to come in 2022 and 2023. If you think that THG is no longer a growth company, then the only valuation metric that we can realistically use to value THG is the DCF method that Yespsb brought up on this board.

I can quote many examples of US e-comm tech stocks that got hammered from their lofty levels as those valuations weren't justified. I'll give you a simple example of Chewy (CHWY), a pandemic darling, just like ASOS/BOO/THG in the UK. They were at 120 bucks in July 2021 and valued at $50b and that's many multiples of THG's market cap, got hammered to 25 bucks in May 2022 (an 80% cratering) because the market saw what was coming, a sales and a earnings drop-off, and voila that's what happened. They kept missing revenue targets and the market kept hammering the price down, like THG. The SP got back up to the 50s, but is now at circa 20 bucks because the expected growth is rather minimal at 5% and earnings just aren't there to sustain the SP. Who gained from the fall - the shorts who called it spot on. That's how the market works. If the Messiah thought his SP shouldn't fall, then he had to deliver high growth rates, just to stand still. He like many others in this space just couldn't do it.

Why did Nvidia get well above the 2021 highs? Because they showed that they were capable of delivering stupendous growth rates and that's the simple mantra. Blind optimism and Messian brown-nosing won't give you the returns. It's the Messiah actually delivering growth that'll make money for shareholders - not blind regurgitation of his sermons.

I like the Biossance acquisition and more so when you're possibly looking at 'negative' goodwill - the value of purchased assets was higher than the cash spent to buy that company. That isn't an everyday occurence and that's what I meant by not making overpriced acquisitions like THG did in the era of growth at any cost...

"As a THG investor would you prefer increased profits over increased growth, your reply seems to imply that you want both which isn't feasible as it is challenging to grow a company at a pace and make good profits. As THG has shown in the past?"

Isn't the answer staring in your face, Crafty? What were the key lessons that the markey taught us from late 2021 to end 2022 ? Growth at any cost is not a strategy that works when that growth disappears, and the subsquent incoming reality of tanking share prices can be painful. You want to grow revenues, but not at any cost. Reign in costs, stop making overpriced acquisitions so that you don't end up writing down £275 mill of Goodwill like THG did in 2022, and develop a laser-like focus on growing EBITDA and FCF. And while we're at it, stop throwing good money at buying Kong statues just to pet your messiah-sized ego. That can't be too difficult.

"GoCPI how could they forget to mention The Troll, also known in the Finacial Industry as Pond Scum, a modern-day weasel hell bent on destroying a company's share price for their own personal gain."

@Crafty - let's add them in too. ;-) Long/short Hedgies have a definite role to play in reigning in fraud as well as uber bullishness and rampany overvaluation in certain stocks/segments. Do they always get it right? Nope. On occasions, I could say some of indulge in malfeasance to get their way. I've seen multiple instances where they've shown up deficiencies in financial reporting and even outright fraud, and in some cases they lost their shirt as they couldn't prove anything. Personally, I don't think any financial malfeasance sits on THG's books OR I wouldn't be invested here. But of course shorts had a great 2022 showing up THG's overvluation as growth all but disappeared and good on them for making money, not just here but in 100s of overvalued tech shares both here and across the pond.

On another note, shorts lost more than a $100bill just on the US market in 2023, betting on a recession that never arrived and as tech shares there found a way forward to grow after the debacle of late 2021 through end 2022 - they're not all winning, but they do win when markets are overvalued ;-). THG hasn't found a way to grow in 2023 - hopefully, for all our sakes, that'll change in 2024?

DPWS - It looks like you need have a strong word with Haider as he's left out a very important component of the stock market psychology - The Messiah Acolyte interplay. This relates to an occasionally manifested phenomenon where a strong man, the Messiah, proclaims to the Acolyte herd a plethora ideas/thoughts/metrics that can neither be proved or disproved and grinds it into them that. The Messiah is generally a powerful/rich member of society and that gives them the cover to preach to the herd. The Acolytes then subconsciously move the price around to the Messiah's desired levels even if some of them experience cognitive dissonance in the process.

The Messiah Acolyte interplay in the stock market is Second Foundationesque in its workings. You're aware its there, but you just can't see it. Some of you may easily recognise this in yourselves, but take comfort in knowing that you're an integral part of the stock market machinations and you'll come to fulfill your role in time. Don't beat yourselves up over this. On this day, I only wish the best to all the players on this stage!!