Member Info for GLR1990

Forgot the link page 18 and 33
https://eit.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2021_09-24_ree_cluster_report2.pdf

We already have funding secured to a certain degree, it is just a irrational market

Page 18 and 33
Mkango Polska
1.7bn Euro fundraise from the EMRA - they are working on getting funding for 14 projects, which includes of Pulawy plant - if that is fully funded, it adds 27% to the economics of Mkangos Songwe project, which will then surely achieve funding of that project (I mean what a bargain) which is why we are doing a joint DFS for both Pulawy and Songwe, I think the whole thing will be funded and secured by the ERMA

https://www.mkango.ca/news/diversifying-the-rare-earth-value-chain-for-europes-green-transition-erma-supports-mkango-in-development-of-pulawy-separation/

Crazy market, just got to remain calm and clear, everything is in place
We do need an MDA but I cannot see that being too much of an issue when everything else is lined up and ready to go, give it a few months and we will be very happy

Agree this is a pretty good update and outline of the future strategy / potential for V production

Key points
- The Studies were undertaken to determine the next phase of the Company's growth plans beyond the sustainable production run rate of between 5,000-5,400 mtVp.a., which is expected to be achieved by the end of 2022.

- - The option to implement the expansion in stages substantially reduces Bushveld's upfront capital requirements and allows incremental production to be attained from each stage in order to generate additional cash flows, which can be leveraged for the next stage

- Thus, whilst our commitment to growth remains, we have the liberty to pursue the new growth plans only once we have achieved our production performance targets on delivering sustainable cash generating production at the production rate of 5,000 - 5,400 mtVp.a. and improved our balance sheet capacity to invest in such when funding has been secured

Decent note on costs
- As a result of higher volumes and operational efficiencies, the Company has estimated that at full operational production of 8,000 mtVp.a., C1 costs per Kg/V produced at Vametco and Vanchem would fall by at least 20% at each operation, compared to 2021.

Sell at 35p?

It was 38p not too long back, the current situation now is do we A. fund the mine ourselves with debt/equity/financing etc. or do we sell the project for many multiples of the current SP and then move to realise the value in the remaining assets like HyProMag etc.

Very true CS
Still bodes well when we are looking for funding, that the US is accelerating and increasing funding in the sector, dont forget the DoD visited Malawi back in 2019

Combine that with the most recent article of a potential MDA In as little as three weeks, we may not struggle to find project financing at all, especially if the BFS is appealing - could be a really great summer here at MKA

Wow massive news

Ministry of Mining says it expects to finish some mining development agreements negotiations with three mining firms by June this year to resume major mining activities.

The resumption of mining activities is expected to create jobs and enhance the sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), which is currently at less than one percent, according to Malawi Government Annual Economic Report 2022.

The ministry’s Principal Secretary Joseph Mkandawire said government is negotiating agreements with three firms that have finalised their exploration works.

He identified the firms as Mkango Resources, a dual-listed mineral exploration firm, which has been engaged in exploration of rare earths at Songwe Hills in Phalombe, Globe Metals Limited, which will be mining niobium in Mzimba and Lotus Resources Limited, which acquired Kayerekera Uranium Mine in Karonga recently.

Mkandawire said discussions on the agreements are at an advanced stage and will be concluded soon.

He said: “From the ministry’s point of view, we look at technical aspects, usually how the mining will be done, waste disposal, value of the minerals, and the quality of the deposits.

“On another hand, the Ministry of Justice has to look at the legal aspects to question whether the agreement is in favour of Malawi. Then there are fiscal issues to be looked at by the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Bank of Malawi and the Malawi Revenue Authority.”

For Mkango Resources, Mkandawire said the legal aspect is right in frame, while for Global Metals and Lotus Resources, the fiscal matters are currently prominent, saying all things being constant, discussions should be concluded by June.

Very good to see

I think this confirms the Russian has been selling completely out

To drop to 19p with a 1% buyer, there has to have been a huge seller in the background

Very good to see the strategic investors taking advantage down here

Gives me great confidence so close to the BFS/MDA etc.

Hmm... not sure I am reading this right, or at least not reading it how some others here have posted - FCF is cash flow taking into account CAPEX which according to the results 'liquidity and financial resources' section cash outflow after tax was £251m (as also can be seen in the net cash position)

Operating cash flow was only £10.8m so I am not sure even with greatly reduced CAPEX how they post a healthy profit in the FY 2023 - unless they spend almost zero on CAPEX - appears to me they will need to eat a big chunk of that new RCF (£325m)

Obv in 2024 they may return to healthy profits - but the EBITDA margins are also very low (4-7%) which is incredibly risky if supply chain issues and inflation remains high, not to mention a move into a recession

Tough one, huge company with massive revenues and a decent profit in terms of EBITDA but when you look closer there are real problem that need to adjusted, any worsening of the current climate and the RCF is toast - difficult times but the market cap is reflecting that

Each to their own and DYOR - a tough call for me, for now on the side-lines but put it on the watchlist

Was here for a while from 6 down to 3, averaged down a bit got out at 4 but still took a decent loss
Can't believe it is now 1.45p, well you can when you look back at the IPO document but still I think with cash and sponsors it's a good price, problem is it was a good price at 2p+ the big issue is a lot of seed investors have stock and warrants at 1p, so explains the selling at any price (above 1p)
In hindsight, should have known it was inevitable this would fall to 1p (or thereabouts)

Good news in the IPO doc is the mention the Becks payments for year 2 and 3 have been put in Escrow, and realised as losses for the first 12 months therefore this years £2.5m payment is covered and secondly next years £3m payment is covered

A raise is likely to come I think at the end of 2022, certainly dont need funds right now (£11m as per last update, even if thats down to £7-8m still healthy) of course every growth stock needs to raise and they will definitely raise in the next 12 months, key Q is at what price, if they get more sponsors in next 6 months then it could be much higher than the current 1.5p price

Becks deal now looks extremely bad to new investors, so they would get tore apart if they tried to raise today, would likely be 1p or less (why would you put money in when there are millions of warrants at 1p coming online in October 2022?) so a raise today would be at 1p or below IMHO, not saying that will happen just saying I would expect a price around that valuation if a raise where to happen today

So in summary, I dont have any cash concerns as I dont think they will need to raise until at worst Q4 2022
That gives investors 6 moths to find more sponsors and get the yearly revenue up to the healthier £5m range

Bad news if they do need to raise without more sponsorships
- Becks payments in Y4 and Y5 are £3.5m and £4m, so would likely have to raise that + working capital (Massive dilution and discount)
- Becks takes 15% of all sponsorship, considering that is the main revenue generator, id rather have that deal than own 5% of the stock which he also owns

So in summary
Extremely high risk the closer we get to Q4, but for now I think investors have 3-6 months where they can sign new sponsors and get the SP back up and over 2p+

I may retake a position here but no progress it will likely head to 1p (warrant and IPO seed stock / 33% drop from here) and secondly a raise in Q4 that will be pretty bad for everyone holding

Seller seem to have eased off a bit today
Unsure if that 80K is a sell, if its a buy we may see some delayed sells later as a lot of buys being published but not much stock against so wondering where it is all coming from
Seller surely has to be low on shares now, if it is the Russian then he wasn't on the updated SH list on the website so would assume under 3% whoever it is

Id usually think the same but have been here many times before
Covid crash was the worst, 9p right down to 2.75p offer - different situation but all the same really surrounding one thing, cash fears
I think the sell off here could be down to a few things
1. global market sell off
Interesting because commodities have done quite well but not all , so I give some weight to this but not a lot
2. Russia invasion and war
I give a lot of weight to this as we do have a TR1 russian investor, or at least we did, the website is now updated (22/04) and he is no longer on there but could still hold under 3% (or just completely gone AWOL)
3. Cash position
I give a bit of weight to this aswell, $4.6m as per 31st Dec last RNS, depending how much is left (cant recall if we have any warrants etc.) then a cash raise will likely be needed in the next few Q's but how that raise will come is what could be the difference between a discount (which would be very detrmimental to the BoD and 32% holder Talaxis) or through asset sales, royalty payments etc. which is obv more beneficial - think HZM royalty agreement with Orion

A good way to raise cash and realise more value could be to list HyproMag, we hold 42%, take our option to increase to 49%, list the company, post listing we may reduce out holding but we could then sell some of that holding on the open market, not sure this is the best idea yet but certainly something for the future, I dont think any of the true value of HPM is priced into the SP today

Or the big one, asset purchase for Songwe in which case we all sail off into the sunset on a nice big yacht (or dinghy depending how much you have here)

FLX is much better than OSI - FLX should have cash very close to the current market cap
With the business now streamlined, the next set of results should be very positive
BoD have done a bit of buying in the last couple of months
Maybe Amati will not sell out, but its a huge chunk to shift if they are and evidence suggests they are as of now... positive side is the market cap is only £4.5m so the value of their holding is only around £500K which could shift pretty quickly if FLX got an OSI style rise etc.

Assuming, as the last 2-3 times it has risen over 1p it has been shot down very quickly with large trades, to go with the two TR1's
So highly likely they want to sell more and will sell more on the next rise

On a serious note where is the news?
No update since December, which was reporting on 6 months to Sep 2021
So there has now been 7 months of business without a TU or report

Problem here is even if good news is in the pipeline, the seller still has 65m (thereabouts) to shift so the news will have to be extra good...

I am not too bothered where the SP goes in the short term
Bring on the H1 results and hopefully show a nice profit - that is when/where the real move, if it is to be, will happen
We can review monthly so not like anything will be too unexpected
Very happy to be holding ~35p average here and will add more if it goes below 30p (someone sold at 30.8p so you never know, although the MM's let it go for 33p so good luck...)

Pretty happy with that

Hint of a dividend if things continue, costs really controlled, we made a much bigger gross profit cost of sales significantly down on increased revenue which is rare
Operating profit and cash generative, BoD would like to pay a dividend you can see but of course have to be careful, global situation is difficult at the moment and we dont know if restrictions will return next winter, they probably wont be since we haven't had a full restriction free year, being cautious is the right thing to do
If they can get those revs up to previous levels with the current balance sheet we should be looking at an EBIDTA of over £1m+ PA which would likely pay a nice dividend of between £250K and £500K - for a £2.8m MCAP stock that would be extremely appealing to the wider market and I suspect we would see some serious interest, short term target remains at £5m MCAP then review, but strong enough update to hold for another 6 months and await the next set of results

Well done BoD!

Steady as she goes next week I think
Back to the 24-25p+ range
Seller (the one we suspect) should be out shortly, two large trades of 470K and 330K likely a single entity taking at least 1m you would think, should clear anything left
Onwards and upwards, back into the 30;s by the end of May!

It's definitely not punt money (that was just a joke)
Been watching this for a while, very rarely attracts chunky trades, nice £10K one there
Bodes well as we have been struggling to get any volume for weeks

Nice rise today, only 9 trades
Someone in the know buying before results, or punt money / gamblers?
A bull trap or a sign of positive things to come?

The BoD will not dilute at a discounted price when they have rich backers and investors lined up
Director topped up £700K in the last one at 24p
Talaxis own 33% and have already put in £14m+
The last RNS stated we have investors circling
The last time the share price was 20p we did a placing at 24p and it traded at about 27p on the day
So it is certainly not all doom and gloom if we need funds