RE: RNS Reactions10 Jan 2022 13:47
It's nothing like that at all
They raised at 25p with the Avacta test near completion and indications of 1-2m units per month
Now they have zero units per month until a technical issue is solved and a new TT is completed
So the whole Avacta promise of potentially making sales in Q1, in the midst of the Omicron wave when LFT's are in short supply, is no more - we have missed the boat completely and it will now likely be next winter when the US has secured all the supply it needs, and the UK and Europe has ramped its own capacity
So when other manufacturers/developers are signing deals and getting agreements in place for the long term, with their tests that actually detect the Omicron Variant (as there will still be some that perform very well) we are still in the lab trying to get a commercial product ready
This is why I am frustrated, people act like nothing has changed, a minor event - no it is not, any customers who wanted to place orders will now walk away as we have also screwed them over, if you were in charge of a country would you purchase any tests from Avacta? I certainly would not, last month they get home use CE mark and state they detect Omicron now you are telling me there is an issue with the sensitivity that you didn't know about last month and now have to pause sales?
What If I were relying on supply? You would never work with Avacta again
This is a time of crisis and for them to withdraw their test or 'pause' sales will do huge damage in the short term, plus no guarantee the new test will perform with acceptable levels of Se like the Delta test did (if we are calling it that)
Is 23p a tad oversold? Unsure, need more clarity, how long is this delay? Vatic Q1 2022 does not bode well, could not be more specific?
2p under placing but with a lot more bad news now than in December
Very frustrating, apologies for the negative post but I have been very bullish on this and I will change my mind if the fundamentals change so here is a negative post to balance it out
Positive if you need one, we are still a good buyout target and the cheaper we get the more likely that is - Asset value still probably £15-20m, I am discounting cash now as above with no sales that will wither away - hopefully can make a profit like pre-covid on the current contracts but suspect a lot of money has also gone into getting this test ready which is now under question again
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