Member Info for GLR1990

Like I said should be a good 6-12 months here at ABDX
Cashed up *(£6m+ if not more)
Partner in AVCT now looking very serious
Not expecting a huge spike up unless we get a deal, but certainly lots of positive movements lately not priced in

Boom

Launch do not manufacture tests, they are a distributor and supplier
AVCT now has a distribution network for 'manufactured tests' that they own
They can use us to manufacture any upcoming tests (which they are now obviously very serious about) and distribute these via Launch DX

Things just got interesting...

Was expecting the SP to be up 200% this morning after my optimism but appears not

Regardless, was being overly optimistic however there is truth to my post, they have a chance here with ~£6-7m in the bank to really lay a foundation for future growth, they can either

A - let it burn and likely need a cash call late 2023, at which point if they haven't made progress with the £7m they will get taken to the cleaners because who on earth would put another £5-7m in when they have done little with £27m to date
B - make some bold moves, have a look for some cheap acquisitions, the market is pants and they say cash is king during a recession, take advantage - id argue they could expand to new territories where they are getting some traction, but this is pricy and in this environment a little dangerous IMHO, go and acquire some companies and solidify growth for future years!

Huge week next week
Cant see them sitting on £7m letting it burn
Cash significantly reduced
May we see an acquisition or development outside of the UK (US base maybe)
I doubt management will just let it whittle away, they will have had huge plans in the pipeline for this money IF it came in, which it now has... would expect an RNS in the next couple of weeks outlining their plans
Sunday Ramp

Yes but they have a lot of cash
£7.6m at the end of July
Lets assume cash burn is £500K, even though it may not be, they will start 2023 with ~£5m in cash, which is more than 50% of the current market cap, that more than justifies the current valuation, so you can really sit back and relax for the rest of the year (and another covid season even though I do think all that is over with now)

Too cheap vs cash, should really be 10p+ and even at that price (£12-3m MCAP) the RvR isn't too great
Lets say they are still burning 500K a month, Aug/Sep £1m so you probably have around £6.2m in cash, although I very much doubt they are even burning £500K a month, we will see
So really you are getting another free shot at this company at this level, risk free in many ways for 6-12 months, and when the market is as bad as it is, having money in something that has £6m+ on the books isnt a terrible idea, think the market is slow waking up to the opportunity here at ABDX even if that opportunity is to simply protect capital and see if the business can grow sustainably over the next 6-12 months

I said the same thing about GILD when that was 1.2p in May, even though I didn't buy, they had enough cash to realistically give investors a good six month window of risk free investing to see if the company could grow, they signed deals with Sky and Coca Coal and did over 100% at one stage, would expect the same thing to happen here from 7p if the company can get some deals over the line in the next six months

Excellent find again Leister, and superb news looks like our MDA will be finalised soon, the other MDA in question appears to have more problems

That's very good news

I didn't read much into it and wasn't 100% on whether them stopping production meant the JV was on ice, although I suppose it would make sense, you dont want your JV partner to be in financial difficulty so this is very welcome news

Come on Cotec, show us the money
Could be in for a cool £1m this week if all things are as planned

I doubt they still burn £800K a month
At least 33% less now they reduced the headcount by said amount, so maybe £500K or less as the last updated stated most of the costs and burn were down to the DHSC and ABC test
Not putting much hope on Vatic, I think they are all talk, they haven't achieved anything to date in terms of commercials
Taiwan order could be a good one, EUA is taking a long time though
Regardless, at this price, I dont think they really need a huge order, just a change of direction, onboarding reliable customers even if they only pay £100-£500K PA, all about growing the business sustainably, id like to see them achieve that over the next 6-12 months

Bought back in after a long absence
Surely cash must be pretty close to the market cap now?
I wonder if they are still interested in expanding to the USA, they did originally plan to do this with the DHSC money, probably a much healthier market than the UK (at least they wont have to sidestep bankrupt partners and court cases)

Unsure on the cash burn here but they did reduce costs recently, so I think this is the turning point, they've probably got a good £6-7m to have a go at it, maybe more

MKA

Mine = Songwe
Huge RE resource, DFS competed, economics lined up just need to finish the MDA and financing

Recycle = HyProMag

Patented technology currently undergoing various fully funded pilot programmes, looking for first plant next year in 2023, Cotec 10% / £1.5m investment in the holding company Maginito suggests current fair value of ~£15m - Cotec have also signed up for £2m of CLNS at 27p (£1m already acquired)

Refine = Poland Processing Plant

DFS underway with JV partner to look at constructing a processing plant in Poland, would improve Songwe economics by 30% and regardless, if commissioned will produce a quality secure supply of RE's for Europe from any source

Funding concerns
As per above, another £500K advanced from Cotec
£1m more to come from Cotec between now and October 15th
Cotec to close investment in Maginto of £1.5m before Y/E
Total Cash £3-3.5m (In other words more than enough, max cash burn was £500K and that was during the DFS which was very expensive ~£7.5m)

Who knows how high the SP could go

Bonker you are correct, I recall the days of 2.75p (covid) and at the time we were all saying the Talaxis deal valued the project (pre-dfs) at around 24p, behold a year later Talaxis took 33% of the group for you guessed it, 24p

don't lose sight of the true value here just because the market is getting spooked or playing silly games, we have great management (as evidenced by the cotec deal and funding) and they will deliver serious long term value here, the country is also very supportive, this is a huge deal and project for malawi, everyone is on the same page and true value will be realised I suspect very soon

Suspect it could be US PE
Started rising at around 2pm (US open) so they may be building a small position before making an offer

With the strong dollar and relatively low PE of UK stocks (vs US stocks) - UK business is very attractive at the moment
NEX also has a large US base

13p Paid
Looking a bit better, suspect we will attract new large players here

Newton (ex HSBC) was adding at 18p not too long back, taking his holding to over 4%, hopefully he will be back and looking to get a bit more like the rest of us

Superb news yesterday from COTEC, a really great supportive partnership underway and they must see tremendous value in HyproMag

HyProMag news from yesterday, pilot plant to be commissioned in 2023
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2022/pilot-recycling-plant-for-rare-earth-magnets-launched

Good Morning all

Yesterday Cotec advanced a further £500K as per their agreement to advance £2m GBP to Mkango before October 15th

***CoTec may extend exclusivity to 31 December 2022 by completing the £2 million (C$3 million) convertible note to Mkango ("Mkango Note") by 15 October 2022***

The nature of this is a CLN however it is only convertible AT THE EXCERCISE PRICE OF 27P, a significant premium to the current SP

COTEC could have walked away from the deal, however with MKA shares sitting at 12p they decided to double down and go ahead with a second £500K payment, an extreme vote of confidence if you ask me - they had already committed £500K but to literally double down again on the same terms at 27p and advance another £500K bodes well not just for Mkangos current valuation, but funding in the future

COTEC according to plan, should advance another £1m before the 15th October 2022 - if they do they will then have until Y/E (extension) to complete the transaction to aquire a 10% interest in Maginito (and HyProMag, which announced very good news yesterday)

They will hopefully close the deal on this transaction before Y/E (deadline 31st December 2022) in which case, MKA will transfer 10% of its holding in Maginito for a £1.5M CASH PAYMENT

Therefore, at 30th June 2022 (post DFS) cash balance stood at $1.3m USD
Post period COTECT have advanced a further £500K (yesterday)
In the next 4-5 weeks MKA will receive a further £1m GBNP (1.15m USD) in which case the CLN will be completed and COTECT will have £2m worth of options at 27p to convert over the next 2 years, +5% interest

Again, all going to plan, MKA should have the transaction completed by Y/E for £1.5m totalling (including yesterdays £500K) £3m GBP between now and the end of the year, enough to fund another round of drilling but with the DFS out of the way, I would suspect enough to see us right through until April next year (in which case, we should have hopefully received funding and WC for the Songwe Project and/or the Pulawy Plant)

It's looking very, very good here but the market is refusing to see it for whatever reason, I am unsure - I do think we will attract huge buyers once this fully digests (and maybe the extra payments come in, which should be the next 4-5 weeks)

Can see us trading back near 20p in the short term

The whole company will eventually bring in a valuation north of £200m+ once all this nonsense is over
HyProMag is worth more than the entire current market valuation, and that has no known issues including fully funded by grants, it goes about its business expanding and proving ground breaking RE technology
The fact Songwe is now trading at 3.5p (if you remove HyProMag from our assets) is both sickening and incredible

Not much we can do, buy hold or sell
These are the risks with investing
Long term it gets a bit easier to predict, current market cap now £22m
Cotec seemed happy to pay a £15m valuation for HyProMag, I've always thought HyProMag would be the future of MKA post Songwe (recycling RE's will be a huge business)
That's £13.5m + £1.5m cash, which now leaves £7m valuation for Songwe and the other assets (if we dont dilute)

Or ~3.5p (songwe valuation), back where it was in 2017 without any of the exploration work

£1 would be a market cap of less than £300m and we have ~£500m or thereabouts in the bank

*correction Talaxis 24p