Member Info for GLR1990

Suspect we will see a large delayed sell later, hopefully clearing this frustrating seller who has got really lucky today to be fair as they would have been getting 7-8p without that presentation

Should be back to placing price at a minimum over the coming weeks (12.5p) ofc if the MDA lands or news from HyProMag in the short term, then all bets are off

Can only speak for Maginito after that interview but for me

4-6 months at least 2x (Maginito valuation ~£40m by Y/E)

I think we could then easily 4x that in 2024 with additional plants, OEM partnerships and rollout in the US, aka proving the scale vs the technology

Post 2025 all depends on competition and what percentage we own but should also be at the market maturity, if we do have three plants in the US and create actual magnets for the industry then you should be looking at 10x in the next 2-3 years very easily

Buyout then takes you to 20x etc.

Loads of highlights CB I will write them up and post later

In short, the results of the UK is key for global scale up, lots of governments and oems interested

Various oems supplying us with recycle e-waste in the UK

results expected early Q3 (which I think is Q4 for us UK folk aka Oct/Nov)

Said multiple times the UK plant is going very well, derisking to increase value

In 6 months said the value of Maginito should increase considerably as we can then use the results of the pilot plants to expand in the US, specifically mentioned Texas/Dallas

Also not just processing RE's and creating the alloy powders but will be setting up a magnet manufacturing site so we become the one stop shop for EV / magnet demand etc.

If someone with a large holding wants out and there are no buyers, what can you do?

Doesn't mean there is anything wrong with the company

Agree don't think it was that bad, margins up over 3% that's usually a very positive sign especially in a bad market, very good recovery play this one

Https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/23/07/ac33177634/cotec-holdings-corp-announces-presentation-at-emerging-growth-conference

Odd same day as ours, albeit during market hours

Q+A is much needed, SH need to know why this has been delayed by 12 months and why the delay is beneficial to shareholders (without giving away anything sensitive to negotiations of course) without that information the SP will continue to drop to a level where it is simply only supported by the face acquisition value of HyProMag

What can also support the SP is more precise timelines, they already missed one deadline, they said they would have the projects for the three US plants identified in H1 2023 (Cotec missed this deadline) albeit not too fussed as it was a short deadline and I am confident they are making good progress, plus UK and EU is more important firstly as this proves the product and commercial aspect of the technology, as per above more precise timelines and and update on the progress here would be good (vs just saying H2 2023 since we are in that period now)

OK, unbelievably frustrated but here is my view

Current market cap £23m

HyProMag 80/20 ownership with Cotec - current face value of ~£15m (so £12m net to MKA)

- we can argue about the valuation of this, cotec have brought a lot to the table and financed us for 12 months, we have two fully funded plants and three projects, with potentially three more in the US, the value we can add to this 'face' value entity is astronomical as we have already proven when we took a 42% stake for £500K

Milestones

- commercial NDPR H2 2023 (will double the valuation as it will then be proven)

- testing with auto manufactures in powerful magnets (will double it again and likely 4x from initial stage, as will be proven for a target market)

- Scale up (here is where the 10x to 100x comes into play, minus dilution along the way)

That leaves £10m face value for Songwe, which is around 2% of its NOV, you are not going to find a construction ready project even in the worst corners of Africa for that price, period (its already had $15-20m spent on just the DFS which was a success)

Whatever is causing the delay has knocked potentially ~£25m off the market cap here - however as it is a mining project, the material stays in the ground (not like technology which can be replaced or become outdated) aka the value is still there, albeit a drop due to macros impacting spot prices / basket prices

As much as id like to move on, selling the project during a very bad climate when we dont really need to sell it (we just raised funds only 3 months ago, £100K from the CEO) is exactly what Malawi and any potential buyers want us to do, to feel the pressure and let it go for cheap because the SP is declining and we are running out of funds

So my advice, as frustrating as it is, is to hold firm even if it takes another year - as investors we need to accept that this was and still potentially is our flagship project, its worth a small fortune IF/WHEN fully funded and construction begins, imagine we offloaded it for £10/£20m only to see a company like Lynas pick it up and make the projects we all envision in 2025/26, imagine NdPr and basket prices do rise as Adamas et al predict and we offload it today at a bargain price? That is not the BoD I have backed for several years, thats not the BoD that found Talaxis and got them to invest $14m in the project and take a 33% stake (now 29% in Mkango), its not the BoD that found Julian Treger and Braam Jonker, collaborated with some of the best mining experts in the business, who have a clear vision and track record of creating enormous value, its not the BoD that found a gem in HyProMag and worked a 42% stake for £500K before making arguably the deal of the decade taking the rest of it for £5m or thereabouts, its not the BoD that has found nearly £10m in EU/UK funding for the same technology

For a small minnow, we have tremendous value

Interesting appointment for a £3.8m market cap company

Mr Duval's experience in high-level transactions includes providing structuring and capital advisory to major groups including music giants Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, as well as Oak View Group, a global sports and live entertainment development and investment company. He has also provided structuring and funding for European football transfers with an aggregate value over $2 billion, with clients including top-flight clubs Barcelona, Manchester United, and Real Madrid. Separately, he has co-created and co-structured digital IP deals with leading footballers, including Neymar da Silva Santos Jr and Lionel Messi.

Certainty has a lot of contacts and experience, should be good for Guild, especially the growing academy

Add that to the Dutch fund TR1 last week and fundraise out of the way, certainly being set up for success

Agree BoD need to take some serious action now as every month this contract is delayed, its costing us money

If we need to raise again to fund ongoing costs in Malawi, this will not look good

The project has been ready for 12 months, the Malawi government for whatever reason (FX in the country?) have stalled this project for far too long, multiple articles suggest internally they are conflicted as one says the MDA will be signed by X date and another says there's an issue with FX etc.

Personally, at the current valuation of 10p, I have completely written off the Songwe Project (ofc should the MDA land and License it will be worth at least a multiple from here) and 100% focussed on the recycling tech, however we have a very valuable asset and it is extremely frustrating to see that this delay has now caused the market to almost completely discount it (if we lost Songwe how much could you seriously discount the SP from here? Not more than 30%) whereas in the past it was all we had (prior to 2022) sitting on a valuation 2-3x here

Think we are all past the point of being patient now, being patient from this point on is just downright financially irresponsible, for whatever reason this has taken far too long and action needs to be taken, or at least update us on what the delay is as it could also be something positive (possibly investment from the US / EU etc.)

Looks really GOOD here

Total cash £38m vs £29m market cap

£2m to be paid to Ofgem et al so lets say £36m

Just made an acquisition which on the face of it looks pretty good (500K capex there)

Strong first half of the year, they are clearly profitable and generating cash even with as many caveats as you can throw in

Fully hedged for Q3 and 50% of Q4

Onwards to £3 a share

Very good raise IMHO, not much discount and not much dilution, gives them a runway to try and land some sponsors over the summer and sort out the finances

First concern obviously being the BitStamp loss which kicks in FY 2023/24 (so fine for now, but have to replace it ASAP) they started well signing Hummel for £700k/3yrs but that only dents it down to ~£1.265m (vs the £1.5m loss via bitstamp) so many more sponsors needed

Any idea what is happening with Subway? That expired in March 23, suspect a 'pay as you go' month per month deal is in place for now until they agree a longer term deal?

If they could increase the subway deal a bit that would help, even 10% - the brand has grown considerably so they might be able to charge north of £1.5m+ PA for this now

Bod have 3 months to delivery some solid sponsors, they have bought themselves much needed time, lets hope they do it - have taken a position as I do really like the company and the new BoD have done a very good job to date slashing costs

Cotec just announced their initial $2.1m in MagIron is now worth $25m, more than the entire cap of their holdings company

These guys are very serious, imagine in 6-12 months when HyProMag gets re-valued!

They've got four investments and one of them has just done a ten bagger, bet against the others at your peril!

https://www.accesswire.com/761989/CoTec-Holdings-Corp-Increases-Investment-in-MagIron-Following-Significant-Increase-in-MagIron-Valuation

Good read this, a blueprint for what will likely happen to Maginito / HyproMag

https://recyclingtoday.com/news/noveon-targets-rare-earth-magnet-manufacturing-using-recycled-material/

- In 2018, it began construction on a commercial site in San Marcos, Texas, with initial magnet production capacity installation starting in 2020.

- That was followed shortly by an investment from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) of $28.8 million

The company developed novel magnetic products and processes in 2012, and the first magnets using grain boundary engineering and recycling technology were produced commercially in 2014. It then set up a pilot plant in Austin, Texas, in 2016.

Once we prove commercial NDFEB we should really start to accelerate quickly (both in developing more plants and valuation)

Noveon seem to have done very well in NA to date (with Toyota)

Dunn says Noveon has developed relationships with original equipment manufacturers, including collecting all the rotor subassemblies from about eight Toyota Motors plants in North America, and recyclers in North America. The company is teaching its raw material suppliers how to disassemble items to facilitate rare earth magnet recovery.

This is an interesting snippet

- The supply-demand imbalance broadly for these materials is so significant that pricing is likely to grow. As Noveon proves its recovery model, Dunn says pricing will increase, encouraging additional recyclers to recover rare earth magnets.

Cant see how we don't end up with a valuation significantly north of £100m+ just for the RE magnets in the next 12-18 months, that would be a ~4x bagger from here (discounting songwe) and would just be the start

Critical Importance

Strategic

Multiple Bidders

Demand outweighing supply

Blue Sky Scale *(as evident by five potential plants already in the pipeline)

Profitable (rule of thumb $80m NPV vs $15m Capex)

Premiums (Less emissions vs mining)

Green discounts / tax reductions (10-15% in EU and US)

We will get there in the end folks dont worry about who is selling what

When we hit 12.5p yesterday we didn't worry about who was buying

I bought some just under 10p the other week, so will be a lot of profit taking as they see the share price struggle to break 12.5, they all panic and sell (probably some at a loss) we got really good press this week so will be tons of traders in this

Give it time, we own 100% of HyProMag! Just know that IT IS coming to fruition, we are making the right moves and it wont be long until we truly accelerate out of this price range and into a much healthier one

We have the tech

we have the partners

we are fully funded for initial production

Honestly enjoy it, these prices will be long gone in 6-12 months and when its 25-30p+ we will be feeling a lot better and regretting not picking up more, I still recall the days when the bid hit 2.5p and I felt absolutely sick, but I look back on that as one of the best opps I ever had in my lifetime

Everyone who sold then missed out on a rise to 38p, and there were some huge sellers

Of course anyone who didnt sell at 38p missed out on buying back at 10p, so it does work both ways, but the end game remains the same, let this one play out and if all comes as expected, we will do extremely well (and there's no reason to think it wont, we got some amazing news this week, we are on the right path)

Got cut off at the end

Was going to say you realise there is a path to a ludicrous $1bn valuation

And if we fall short by a few hundred million, I doubt any of us will be complaining :-)

$1bn USD in due course Jem

People laugh at that valuation, of course it is silly at £25m, and I dont mean overnight, but in 5-10 years time it could certainly 40x from here, how?

The patented HPMS technology can be deployed anywhere in the world

It also generates revenue at a very good margin (tbc)

To get to a billion dollar valuation, you need either a valuable asset or a valuable scaleable technology / service

We have the latter (songwe is valuable but itll never get us to a billion dollar valuation)

We currently have three plants in development, and likely another three to come

from the three plants, two of them are looking to produce 100tpa of NDFeB

(NDPR price is currently 555K yuan, I know its been dropping, but 400K is historic)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/neodymium

Yuan to GBP means it is currently £65K GBP per tonne

100t per annum nets you around £6.5m at todays prices

At 50% margin (now we own 100% hooray!) that's £3.25m earnings per plant

We currently have two plants, three in the pipeline

So by 2025 let say we have five plants, all producing 100tpa

That's £16.25m per annum earnings

On a very small PE of 10x we are therefore valued at £162.5m on the recycling tech alone, however as it shows saleability and profit generation, I suspect it would trade on a tech PE of ~15-20 which would be a valuation of ~£245-£320m

Now we wont own all of it, we currently own 80% (after cotec certainly take their option) and we wont own 100% of the US plants, but then who is to say we stop there? What if by 2025/2026 we have say ten plants producing £32m per annum in earnings? What if we produce 200tpa or more? Now you are looking at £64m+ per annum in earnings, and at THAT moment you have yourself a billion dollar valuation

Lots need to happen

1. prove the product is commercial, will need to send samples to offtakers (automanufacturers etc.) and they will need to extensively test its performance in EV motors etc.

2. has to also be commercial, if the price keeps dropping at what point do you fail to make a profit? (of course if the price rises then we get to $1bn much quicker!)

3. Fend off rivals and have faith the there wont be substitutes for Rare Earths (namely NdFeB) tesla is trying to move away however companies like apple are adopting 100% recycling

4. we dont have to dilute to fund projects 3 4 5 6 etc etc.

Further boosts

- US inflation act allows us to recoup 10% in tax / production costs as we are 'green tech'

- EU critical minerals act proposed that all member nations must source 15% recycled critical minerals domestically (this is incredible)

Money is already moving in ($27m investment into Cyclic from BMW, they literally are doing what we do only using chemical processing route I think)

https://www.electrive.com/2023/04/27/bmw-i-ventures-leads-investment-into-rare-earth-recycling/

So, when a $1bn valuation is proposed, it seems silly at first, but then you realise, there is

For RE magnet recycling of course ,It doesn't, this is/will be the first

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2023/birmingham-to-become-uks-first-centre-for-rare-earth-magnet-recycling

Agree B99

Actually, I read an article late last year (I cant find it now but likely was in the Nyasa Times) which stated that once the EISHA was announced the MDA would follow soon after, this is usually the process in Malawi

However, it also stated that the two parties had agreed on most topics, however the stumbling block was to do with 'International bank accounts'

Make of that what you will - I suspect either the EU or the US will make a move in the short term

Just last week we met up with the Malawi president to discuss Songwe, at the same time the US announced a $300m+ investment in Malawi

The plot thickens, I suspect all will be revealed before the 1st anniversary of our DFS which if I recall was around the end of June!

Over the next 6 months I would expect a significant re-rate back to 25-30p

Pending newsflow

- MDA which unlocks enormous value at Songwe (NPV $559) would be worth the current cap alone (~15-20p in additional value)

- Creation of a US subsidiary for HyProMag/Maginito

- Realisation of value of Maginito (Cotec are currently getting the project/company valued as they are an investment company

- Feasibility studies / project start dates and funding for 3x NA plants (all funded by Cotec adding more value to the group)

- Partners and US government grants to help fully fund feasibility studies in the US (Cyclic metals got a $27m investment last week)

- First production in H2 2023 from the UK, MKA would then need to send this product to offtakers for analysis before ramping up production of 100tpa of NdFeB (which is currently valued at around $7-10m USD)

- Legislation like the EU critical minerals act being put into action which states that all member nations must source 15% of their critical minerals domestically from recycled sources / production (yes you read that right)

- The legislation above also states that within 3 years any products that contain critical minerals must be clearly labelled so they can be recycled with ease in due course

- Songwe MDA once approved will lead to either project financing (our cap is too small) or more likely yet an FSP (formal sales process) where we look to sell the asset, 10% of the NPV would be ~$59m USD much higher than the current market cap, would expect MKA to retain an interest or receive this and milestone payments (similar to the HyProMag deal today but with the shoe on the other foot)

- Pulawy separation plant and project financing, if this concludes, would add ~27% boost to the economics of songwe, not much to talk about on this one, we will see if it ever gets fully off the ground

So lots of value drivers to come in the coming months, why I fully expect with all the newsflow and increasing interest, we should be looking at 2x 3x from here in the next 6-12 months