RE: Securing Critical Raw Materials for Defence11 Jun 2025 10:06
Hi Peter
You make a valid point on the DFS in regards to its economics, as it was carried out during peak RE prices back in 2022.
However, one needs to look at Pulawy vs Songwe.
It was said that Pulawy would increase Songwe' s economics by 33% back in 2022, we ran some figures recently and the economics weren't great with Nd at such a low price, but when you combined it with Pulawy it was 'economical' which in regards to national security, is all you really need. Add in tariffs on Chinese exports and the project becomes even more economical, but I understand the concern.
However, you also need to focus on Pulawy just as much as Songwe. Lynas received over $250m USD to build a processing plant in the US, now we are talking about Lynas who have experience, but still the money was there to build from scratch, all they had was a location similar to that proposed by MKA.
Therefore, Pulawy could and should command a huge valuation just in itself, and it doesn't just have to process concentrate from Songwe. When you combine this with Songwe (clearly why its being bundled in as part of the SPAC) and considering the EU have recently completed their own DD and listed BOTH of these projects as strategic to national security, you can see why the SPAC should command a significant valuation way north of MKA current cap.
When you consider USAR listed at $800m (and now trades at $1.3bn) - similar process to HyProMag US so not directly comparable to Songwe, but simply was more a whitepaper with funding (lead by Cohen and Co, the same lead advisors working on MKA SPAC) the Songwe DFS becomes less of a concern
However, ultimately it may be better seeking a response from the company, but personally I dont think it will impact the SPAC valuation too much when you consider the economic benefits of Pulawy. (and the basket price will still be economical which is all that matters)