Member Info for Glengarth

It is frustrating trading so tightly around this 35-40p level for weeks - but that to me is what the market is doing, it’s waiting to see the proof of the pudding of TGR’s work to date - good news will move this significantly higher as it’s coiled like a spring imo.

GLA

He’s an ambitious entrepreneur - I’d challenge you to find a resources company that has hit its initial goals according to their timeline aspirations - that goes for those that don’t even have bad weather to contend with. He literally states in the Momentous Events interview that he understands the need to deliver in order to maintain credibility - if we begin to see the ramp up with 2,000MT+ production happening this quarter then that will start up the positive sentiment here again imo.
Yes there have been been setbacks but the work done to date is why I am bullish. Unlike many other companies TGR is actually getting on building and working hard. This is seen in the steadily rising production and sales figures .
You are sceptical, fair enough because of some longer than expected workstreams and out of the company control events like cyclones last February, covid and inflation etc, but I am the opposite if you actually read what the company has BUILT - it’s in the strongest position yet, and results are indicating the large ramp up has begun. Next updates will hopefully include the hydropower and savings from pre-concentrate innovations etc. Essentially it makes sense for you to be sceptical but don’t cut off your own nose and disregard the work done - from these levels TGR represents a very strong prospect imo as one of the very few globally significant Graphite producers outside China.
Things move quickly and if we hit the 6,000MT per quarter level production in Jan-March quarter I expect many will be speaking a different tune (I still think this has much further to rise - one day back up to over that 156p level, which at the time was reached in the middle of the bull market euphoria etc).

Anyway - hoping Poddar delivers and we start to see the fruits of the laying of the foundations, which is arguably the hardest part in a company’s lifecycle, for the much larger ambitions ahead!

GLA, DYOR!

More unbelievably good results - easy eyes on massive resource expansion upcoming imo

https://twitter.com/alastai85608932/status/1590135540103643136?s=46&t=3dxcb4wSncUDP2M7THyloQ

Well we are into November and fingers crossed the ramp up is going smoothly toward our fist quarter of raised production.
The first hydropower plant should be commissioning as well, with studies/work for the next 400kw hydropower plant ongoing. Pre-concentrate plants should be up and running and the deconstruction of the 3,000tpa module to allow for the more efficient, larger scale production capacity of 36,000tpa should be well underway. Hopefully we should hear something soon on the downstream and/or Mozambique side of things.
Half year results in around 4-5 weeks I think - hopefully will contain solid updates on the above operational workstreams. confirmation all is going smoothly will be huge as we march towards 84-110,000tpa capacity in Madagascar. Think the company has said results of exploration and drilling campaign will be released in the New Year at some point so will look out for indication for that.
Within only the next 5 months TGR will have produced more Graphite concentrate then it has since its inception in 2017 - how's that for scale up! Should be a financially healthy operation at the ramped up capacity of 36,000tpa and I wonder if shareholders may be rewarded with a small dividend within the next 12-18 months as ramp up continues and the cash flows, based on Shishir's recent event interview.

GLA, DYOR

Sorry where are you seeing it said this will be the only Lithium processing plant in Europe - I don't believe that to be true - there are Lithium plants planned for Portugal, France, Spain, Germany, several in Eastern Europe etc

Funds, agencies, other company investment vehicles - the mix of investors that will look to invest in the likes of Atlantic will be very varied - the companies of tomorrow are only small/new today. As institutions see what’s possible elsewhere like Albermale/Pilbara etc they are likely to invest in Atlantic imo to gain a very important part of the ex China, ex Australian, ex South America, Lithium supply chain - with its partners in Ghana and Piedmont, ALL is extremely well placed imo. Will we have 1 or 2 more announcements with drilling results before the DFS work can complete is the question - with each results release more people hear of and learn what is going on here - very bullish.

GLA

I think that takeover price suggested by some around 120p might have just doubled...

Holy S**** - ALL is STILL throwing up massive intercepts this time at 4.52% (ok only over 1m but still) in the ASX today 2nd November announcement which we will see tomorrow at 7am. More massive results to come with this announcement taking us up to only 21,000m out of 47,000m of the drilling programme being reported - and lots of juicy intercepts outside of the current MRE.

Looking forward to the 7am RNS

GLA

Morning all,

Sometimes the people knocking a company do reveal their lack of research/attention that they actually give the company.

RiskisReward, the company has guided for THIS quarter, production of 2,100-2,500MTs between October and December 2022. For the next quarter, January-March 2023, they have provided production guidance of 6,100-6,500MT. This was made clear in the Investor Meets Company investor presentation following the Final Results that took place on 11th October at 10am.

Here is the link to a tweet containing the slide with guidance:
https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1586016459347607555?s=20&t=c1L5BLZQur82hPB4xoBUsw

Here is a link to the actual IMC presentation on Youtube - perhaps give the presentation a watch, the guidance slide is from the 14th minute roughly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa81nX0cmC0

Of course this is guidance and can be missed, actual production can come in lower or even higher. But to pretend the company is not confident and ignore the work it has done to date is questionable. However, the proof remains in the pudding and for TGR to demonstrate that it can in fact achieve the much higher jump up in production scale now it has reached this stage.

DYOR, GLA.

So you noted there were optimistic posts that were made on the basis of the work done to date to mitigate the problems you are pessimistic about - notably the weather that took place at the beginning of this calendar year - the company has worked hard to be in a position to perform better IF such weather repeats...the pre-concentrate pumping innovations removed much of the need to use the roads as they were used before, and indeed those roads have been built back up and reinforced for what vehicular use is required according to the announcements.
I would note that despite the bad weather and disruption in Jan-March of 2022, the company recorded its highest quarterly shipment and sales of 1,137 metric tonnes (MT) at its highest average realisation of US$866 per MT, suggesting while hampered the company was still operating relatively effectively albeit a very tough time during that bad weather which slowed progress - I would expect with the innovations and mitigations carried out since by the company for it to be in a better position to achieve even higher sales volumes this coming Jan-March quarter, given all that's taken place, and indeed the company has provided forward guidance targets of 6,100-6,500MTs for those months next quarter.

So we shall see, but I don't think it's wrong to be optimistic here, from such a low share price trading tightly and low mcap compared to many peers, even non-producing peers, with graphite prices rising and TGR expanding its capacities rapidly, indicating the scale is has reached allows it self-sustain and grow further organically using proceeds of established operations, and savings from innovations (pre-concentrate + hydropower etc).

GLA, DYOR

Or - why should SAV not seek a similar deal as ALL has with Piedmont Lithium; offtake 50% in return for funding through to construction and production with a growing refinery/battery maker in Europe - capex not much more expensive than ALL's $120m. Surely better long term shareholder value creation than just a sale prematurely to Fortescue - unless of course the sale price on receipt of the EIA is 20p...

GLA

Thanks for sharing that interview - some great insights - Madagascan operations looking to be funded now organically and through debt all going well. At 84,000tpa my estimate is the company will be earning something close to $20m profit, could be more, could be less - that's a lot of cash to put towards certain objectives which I would think include (in no particular order):
- Funding further expansions in Madagascar on the new tenements being acquired as announced recently to boost capacity in Madagascar up to 110-130,000tpa from 84,000tpa - if using similar 18,000tpa modular model we know this only takes about £8-12m at a time (including additional exploration and infrastructure spend for the new areas).

- Funding towards Mozambique asset development - just look at the performance of Syrah Resources next door to these assets - the world's largest Graphite operation and rising prices for the exact same type of flake Graphite we are acquiring in these new assets- combination of debt and organic funding, as well as maybe some prepayments/JV style, strategic equity investment from some larger partner like Hanwa perhaps? Certainly what will make TGR different is that it will have a major cash earning operation in place when it looks at funding these huge assets that will propel TGR into the top tier leagues of global Graphite producers, more so than it is relatively already.

- Funding towards establishing downstream operations - it's my view TGR should complete its merger with TSG or come to some IP sharing arrangement to allow TGR to use the tech established by TSG. However, what would make most sense in my opinion is for TGR and TSG to merge fully, and for the company to focus on expanding its full operation in India before establishing facilities in Europe/UK. TSG already has significant operations and needs cash to develop as TGR is about to finish doing (in my opinion, DYOR) so to reach its point of profitability. From there, build relationships and qualify material with OEMs as Syrah Resources is doing at Vidalia in US, and then judge the landscape - continue to expand in India to serve it an Asian markets or establish operations in the US/UK/EU to serve those markets and begin to earn market share.

- Rewarding shareholders with the company's first dividend - Shishir mentions in the interview i've re-posted the link to below about the company's Dividend policy and he reasserts how his interests are fully aligned with shareholders as he is the largest shareholder and of course Founder. This would be exciting and probably make TGR the first Graphite company ex-China to issue a dividend, even if it just a small one to reward long-term shareholders.

With graphite prices strengthening and awareness growing, with TGR hopefully going into its strongest phase yet, i'm very optimistic.

DYOR, GLA

Link to interview:
https://youtu.be/vqlYIfQkJ7k

From the article in the link below Fortescue desire to enter the Lithium space, to diversify from Iron Ore is written about. It mentions how aside from South America and Australia, it hasn't been able to find any projects of a suitable size in any of them, nor has it found any in Portugal - shows how lucky SAV is and the position of strength it will have should MdB get off the ground as the only incumbent major producer around to supply Portuguese European refineries - in an ideal world SAV should become Portugal's Lithium major - let's hope its gov't and communities recognise the opportunity.

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1585920281243451392?s=20&t=weDfxFLyIdMAG-NxkRibvQ

Also been seeing a lot on the EU/Europeans being annoyed with the US for its recently announced policies to attract investment in domestic industry and Li-ion supply chains, including for miners and downstream operations - well, I can think of one way to begin the fight back - business is competition, no matter how much the bureaucrats mess about.

Think my last post here was last December - good to see you guys still cracking on here, shame about Roberts and the company...haven't been following much this year at all

*now time to offer the proof of the pudding.

Demonstrating we are on the way to minimum 6,000 tonnes produced and sold per quarter will likely mean profitability is a certainty and provide TGR the capital to grow organically using debt funding in Madagascar

GLA

Agree - they've told the market they are in a strong position, not time to offer the proof of the pudding - if they can publish the half year results in December as per last year, and offer guidance whether the company is on track to meet the production and sales guidance they have published for this quarter that will go a long way in boosting confidence and attracting greater interest - the company twitter page has grown massively in followers the past several months - after completing ramp up and the Mozambique acquisition (and ideally a downstream update) I would expect the long-awaited update to the website, which after all is likely the first port of call for investors...

Anyway, ignoring the lovers spat..... Madagascar continues to grow in its importance as a Global hub for Graphite production as TSX listed NextSource Materials nears completion of its 1st stage module at Molo to producer 17,000tpa of flake Graphite.

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1584893948669366272?s=20&t=kIjnMeSxHrhfPIZ89UKEdQ

Looking forward to TGR's next updates as we continue to ramp up on the way to 84-130,000tpa production in Madagascar alone, without including Mozambique. As many are as well, hoping we also hear something soon on the downstream side to get that ball rolling properly.

GLA

As a long term holder here (just look at my post history) I'm not fussed about those who want their 10% or so - TGR is ripe for a big rise imo and is vastly undervalued compared to many peers on the ASX who are yet to reach production - been trading tightly around these levels, well funded and expansing rapidly, in its strongest position operationally yet approaching its globally significant 36,000tpa capacity that should in my opinion provide for a profitable operation and allow for organic growth in Madagascar up to 84,000tpa and then c.130,000tpa with the massive Mozambique deal (another potential 150,000tpa+ this decade) also due to complete in due course and work on resolving the downstream way forward ongoing.
Worth researching as is the overall Graphite thematic if you are new to the sector.

Always do your own research.
GLA

With Imerys turning its attention to Lithium in France, the race to supply into the domestic European Lithium supply chain is hotting up between Member States - Portugal plainly has the opportunity to be the frontrunner imo

https://www.reuters.com/business/frances-imerys-wants-become-leading-lithium-producer-europe-2022-10-24/

GLA

The requirements of the India regulator to approve the acquisition of TSG meant that by the time TGR was ready to complete the acquisition following the circular and GM vote last year that TGR's initial work was out of date and so needs resubmission which involves using an updated independent valuation of TSG etc - read the RNS's it's all there and the potential issues and some routes for resolution - hoping we hear more on this as it will kickstart TGR's sp back up toward levels it should be (much higher) imo.

GLA