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Breaking news - dow futures surge nearly 600 points as may jobs report stuns with 2.5 million increase in payrolls and unemployment falls

Could see a big rise this afternoon?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-surge-nearly-600-points-as-may-jobs-report-stuns-with-25-million-increase-in-payrolls-and-unemployment-falls-2020-06-05

Ultimately the share price here will head back above £2 imv based on asset value and the quality of those assets. As well as the quality of the tenants - sainsbury, cineworld, greggs, Costa, Primark, tesco, wilko (the list goes on and on). But like everything else at the moment, it'll take time and patience to get back to where it was pre pandemic. Think U shaped recovery not V.

A few recent articles on REITs:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4351927-visualizing-virus-impact-on-reits

https://apacrealestate.com/apac-reit-daily-2-june-2020/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-02/china-takes-first-steps-toward-launching-3-trillion-reit-market

With everything on the cusp of reopening, G4S will increasingly be in demand very soon. So should see a steady uptrend in the share price from hereon to somewhere in the region of about £1.35 to £1.40+ over the coming weeks, imo.

To underline just how wrong broker forecasts can be, HMSO was downgraded and given a target price of just 50p by Morgan Stanley on 11th May 2020 - the share price hit £1.13 yesterday! Oops, got that one wrong didn't they!

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6913885/Broker-Forecast-Morgan-Stanley-issues-a-broker-note-on-Hammerson-PLC

Morning Jai, if its anything to go by in 2011 we had the London riots - which happened after a fatal shooting so same situation. At the time it was hard to see it ever ending, but it was over in just 4 days after a massive increase in police brought it to a swift end. Trump's threatening to send in the army if necessary - I guarantee you it'll be over within days. It is a domestic issue at the end of the day its not the kind of issue that tends to affect the markets so I really wouldn't worry about that.

Found these articles on Morgan Stanley. 60p is absolute nonsense and pure wishful thinking on their part imo. It ain't gonna happen with cinemas opening soon and a huge line up of top films. And plenty of people are itching to get back to Cineworld, you only have to read their twitter feed to see that. I'm absolutely confident we'll be back above £1 very soon, possibly within days. 15-20% jump coming tomorrow imo - marstons fell back from 80p to 55p just like we fell back - and then it bounced hard - have a look at the 1m chart it's similar to ours.

https://www.businessinsider.com/lyft-to-sue-morgan-stanley-over-short-selling-activities-concerns-2019-4

https://siliconangle.com/2019/04/07/lyft-threatens-sue-morgan-stanley-short-selling-trades/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-shorting-morgan-idUSN1939833320080919

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/morgan-stanley-accused-of-misusing-data-in-short-selling

https://traders-paradise.com/magazine/2019/04/morgan-stanley-taking-lyft-for-a-short-ride/

https://www.globalcustodian.com/japan-morgan-stanley-fined-barclays-censured-for-short-selling/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-and-dow-futures-turn-positive-ahead-of-opening-bell-2020-06-01

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-rise-on-sigh-of-relief-over-trumps-response-to-china-2020-05-31

I think Trump sees the stock market as one of the measures of his success.
He does apparently have investments though according to a forbes article dated 2018

Like him or loathe him I think he's a force of good as far as the stock market goes. He's a natural businessman, very bullish, very positive and confident, charismatic and he certainly knows how to make money. And I think It all rubs off on the markets - he's great for investors imo so much better than "sleepy Joe" would be anyway lol
Hopefully he'll win a second term that's my view anyway.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2018/05/17/president-trump-reveals-his-stock-market-investments-heres-what-we-learned/amp/

This article is dated March when stocks first fell following the pandemic :
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-trump-idUSKBN20Z3BC

"New River's financial profile and resultant metrics are significantly better than larger Fitch-rated peers"

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-newriver-reit-plc-idr-at-bbb-senior-unsecured-at-bbb-assigns-f2-st-idr-01-04-2020

Thankfully, Trump is very much aware of what the markets are doing and wants to see a sharp recovery - he's tweeted numerous times over the last few months that he expects a V shaped recovery and for the economy to bounce back stronger than ever before etc. This is a good thing because he's probably less likely to do anything he knows could negatively affect that - yesterday for example global markets were all down because investors were fearing he'd impose sanctions on China over Hong Kong. It didn't happen, he stopped short of it and consequently the markets rallied just before close, undoing many of the losses they'd seen during the day (of course it was too late for the FTSE but hopefully we'll see that bounce on monday). Some might say he's unpredictable but he does at least care about the markets and will do anything to protect the American economy, which in turn gives confidence to investors and probably at least partly explains why the markets have bounced back so strongly already in complete defiance of the bears and the doom and gloom merchants.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-sp-500-turn-positive-friday-afternoon-as-trumps-measures-against-china-seen-not-as-stringent-as-feared-2020-05-29

January 22nd 2020

Allan Lockhart, CEO, "In the third quarter, we saw continued stability in our operational metrics with an increase in retail occupancy to 96.1%, footfall outperforming the UK benchmark by 60bps and a healthy demand for our retail space"

"We were pleased with the robust Christmas trading performance of a number of our top 15 tenants, including Sainsbury's, B&M, Primark, NEXT and Iceland"

https://www.***************************/newriver-reit-delivering-a-resilient-operational-performance/412803534

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/hub-page/2020/05/29/housing-market-return-very-quickly-turned-into-mortgage-applications-lloyds-bank/

Trump : no second lockdown

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11682647/trump-coronavirus-lockdown-second-wave/

There won't be a significant second wave imo we might see a small, temporary increase but this thing will naturally burn itself out as all pandemics have done throughout history. The worst is already over and the recovery is underway. The chances of there being a second lockdown are zero - no chance at all of that happening. Trump has already stated no matter what happens in the US there will be no second lockdown and other countries will be the same. The markets are down today due to Trump and China over Hong Kong - nothing to do with the virus. One day it's gloom, the next it's back to positive that's the way it is and that's the way it's always been. Warren Buffet once likened the markets to a clock pendulum - forever swinging from positive to negative.

I've split my investment money 50/50 between Cineworld and New River Reit (NRR) which is one of the UK's biggest pub operators, got £12K in each. Cineworld should move well from hereon imo, should be back above £1 soon with a probable jump to £1.15+ when we reopen in July. Looks like Warren Buffet may have got it wrong - he's been critisised for not buying anything and airline insiders say he definitely got it wrong selling his airline stocks. Sun's out, weather is warm, virus is diminishing fast and everything is on the cusp of reopening. Confidence and the feel good factor is slowly but surely returning to the markets. Its time to buy imo if you haven't already done so!

"New River Reit : one of the biggest brexit bargains around" (and the share price was £1.67 at the time of the article!)

"The company is amazingly cheap. At the end of march it had a net asset value based upon an independent valuation of the properties of £2.61 per share"

"it wouldn't take much for the shares to rebound"

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/newriver-reit-one-of-the-biggest-brexit-bargains-around/

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/919697/newriver-reit-reit-is--cheap-and-cheerful--says-jefferies-as-it-starts-coverage-with--buy--919697.html

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-vertex-netflix-tesla-rebound-coronavirus-stock-market-rally/

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2018/05/24/NewRiver-acquires-Hawthorn-Leisure-for-106.8m

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2020/01/27/Hawthorn-Leisure-acquires-29-pub-package-from-Marston-s