Member Info for Ghia

Saint-Tropez - There is a well known poster on the ADVFN forum nobbygnome he has posted here occasionally too. He used to work in the industry and has first hand experiences of trials such as this.

General consensus seems to be 3-4weeks for the size of trial from the discussions he has had over on ADVFN.

So it’s all speculation but from a source that seems to know what they are on about.

I believe that is correct and I have no idea what is the norm.

Nolupus - I agree they chose the same if not similar dose for Covid as for COPD the reason most likely that to get the trial signed off quickly without requiring a phase 1 safety element.

So the dosing level may or may not be significant enough for covid, that’s what the trials will tell us.

I think this is the real question here, not wether it works but rather have we delivered the correct dosage and early enough.

I’m sure a data set that shows we got there too late with not enough drug would still be viewed optimistically.

Time and dosage are all variables under our control, as you say we might have to take a step back to move forward.

Having hospital and home data will help with the timing question.

UpUp - I think you should read the RNS dated 28/05. The Covid hospital trial was for 100 patients they confirmed the 100th patient was recruited in the 28/05 RNS.

So we have to assume that was the date the last patient started receiving treatment.

Then we know the dosing takes 14days and there is a 14day follow up period.

The only unknown is the data analysis step.

3weeks is a best case estimation IMO

Last patient was recruited as per RNS 28/05.

14days of dosing
14days of follow up
Assume 3weeks data analysis

Takes you to 16th July.

CW - it all depends on how long you attribute to the data analysis assuming 3weeks we would be targeting 16th July at the earliest for hospital trial.

So that’s probably the best case date.

Yeah that’s mighty competitive I think the government knocked NCYT down to €5 a test for their massive order typically I think they are selling their test at €10-12

Looking good for GDR though, comparison slide in this report is very interesting I imagine NCYT is trying to reduce some of their operator interactions as highlighted as a weakness in this document.

So when the new tests launch this will be out of date but for now seems like they have stolen the March.

http://www.genedriveplc.com/company-reports/InvestorPresentationJune2020.pdf

Seb - Not sure that was the original agreement however I’ll be happy to stake that bottle of wine you mentioned if SNG are within 30p of IAG come August 1st.

How does that sound?

Rich - Yes you would have been stupid not to take the profit I had a similar experience with GDR was in at 26p got to the point that holding for more was just pure greed.

Rich - Good to have you back on board I’m guessing you didn’t expect to get a second ride on SNG after your initial profitable trade?

Rich - I know I think it’s because they obviously understand a decent amount about technical stuff to with IFN so when simpletons like us come up with suggestions that are 80% correct, they enjoy knocking us down a peg or two.

However IMO their overall contribution to the board has been positive and I’ve learnt to tolerate being slapped down now and again.

Rich - IFN beta supposedly has a rather short half life therefore to achieve a specific concentration at the lungs less is required inhaled than would be via IV.

Nolupus is right in that any dosage adjustment would require it’s own safety study but in theory that could come in the form of a larger phase 3 trial. Nolupus could confirm.

Nolupus likes to keep in check statements that might snowball into facts that aren’t 100% true.

So whilst dosage levels could in theory be changed at this stage in the game they will not as it’s not just as simple as a few extra puffs. There will be paper work involved.

That’s not to say you are wrong and sometimes they could learn when to let things slide a little.

But on the whole I think they add a decent perspective to the discussions.

Nolupus - It was indeed many times but the lack of a sticky function for posts means the good stuff gets lost in amongst the garbage.

Gambling - as Rich mentioned most are expecting COPD first the reasoning for this assumption:

1 - They where granted access for an interim analysis once given access one would assume they requested the analysis to start straight away why delay, it's an external company doing the analysis so would cause no overhead issues within SNG.

2 - The RNS included a comment from Richard saying there would be 3 trial readouts and they where listed in the order of COPD, Hospital and At Home.

So I think it is reasonable to assume there is a high chance of COPD arriving first.

39p UT happy with that

There are things that AVCT can learn from SNG and vice versa.

AVCT really was a masterclass of a placing dress the share up to look like a Covid play let it fizz up and hold long enough to fully fund 2 years of cancer development which is really their main objective.

So SNG could learn a thing or two on how to conduct a placing with the minimum dilution.

SNG on the other hand have been superb at re-aligning, focusing and executing a strategy to maximise the opportunity presented by Covid. We really have catapulted SNG001 closer to it's end point off the back of Covid and are days/weeks away from results.

So AVCT could learn a thing or two about delivering to a schedule.

A gap up to £1.20 off the back of COPD 7am RNS would be marvellous would really catch a few people out.

I can dream...

Rich - I was no where near my stop and the position would have been closed if I had not deposited a piddly amount before the next trading session.

So i'm happy with the way my longs are setup just surprised it got down to that point, had not realised the gap existed.

Anyway the Longs are just a bit of fun, I prefer to hold shares rather than borrow.

Nolupus - I agree with you on that i'd set up my longs counting on a strong 34p support when I got the margin call I was ****ed off to say the least but glad I stuck to my guns.

Best not to get too carried away but realistically this really should start to drift up.

I'd rather incremental 2-3% rises but not going to complain about a 20% step up it's long overdue.